@FinanceFiendz @jakebrowatzke Klarna has been around since 2005. i think they will be OK. this is typical emotional crying that you see in bear markets. 2 years from now everyone will pretend to have bought at the lows
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Emotional Investor
18.8K posts
Emotional Investor
@LeveragedFun
Personal wealth manager on Robinhood
शामिल हुए Temmuz 2019
108 फ़ॉलोइंग307 फ़ॉलोवर्स
@jakebrowatzke You're really averaging down on a BaaS play while delinquencies are rising and consumers are choosing between "pay in 4" and eating ?
Bro, the market is pricing in that BNPL works great in bull markets and turns into "default now, cry later" when the economy tanks LOL
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Very rarely is the market THIS wrong, but it does happen.
Second time I'm down ~90% YTD since 2019.
2022 was the last time.
Despite these bullbacks I've averaged 89.6% anualized returns since 2019 as measured by Interactive Brokers as of today, and am still up in the past year
Jake Browatzke 🚀@jakebrowatzke
New YTD Low. No crying. Only buying.
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@JuanRodrig07 eventually you run out of sellers. especially when the company is repurchasing so many shares
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@KT_GenXer1969 @gummibear737 why would you want it to do this? it would be incredibly annoying
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@gummibear737 Thoughts on this? I ask Claude to stop claiming human emotions and ask it to add a disclaimer to every response "I am not human, I synthesise information from the following broad sources"
I asked it why Anthropic doesn't automatically do this. It told me it is being discussed.
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I have yet to see anything that would convince me that learned language models (LLMs) are capable of anything but verbal reasoning
We still don’t know how critical thinking works nor how to model it
I’m open to changing my mind, but it is intuitively difficult for me to see how you can brute force your way past this inherent limitation in LLMs
You can mimic critical thinking to a high degree, but when you run out of human generated content to imitate, you are stuck. The problem of recursive learning based on AI generated content demonstrates this basic problem.
And maybe that is a good thing, because LLMs can be incredibly useful tools and would solve almost all of humanity’s needs. I don’t think we should even try to go beyond that and try to solve the critical thinking problem
Disclose.tv@disclosetv
JUST IN - Leaked documents from Anthropic show that a new generation of super-strong models, "Claude Mythos," is already in testing with Anthropic believing it "poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks." — Fortune
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@_DomDav @twoodhouse14 why would they sell here? who benefits lol. they have no need to sell
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@twoodhouse14 I can see a PE firm taking them private then relaunching in a few years when the market isn’t on its head.
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$U acquisition incoming? Good for them. Company is actually quite good when you look at the uphill battle they have from that string of bad decisions made by former leadership.
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@from1tomillion @awokemillennial @DeItaone he is very selective about what news he is highlighting lol
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@awokemillennial @DeItaone Walter is just posting news released on the bloomberg terminal, he isn't claiming anything himself.
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IRAN HASN'T REQUESTED PAUSE ON ENERGY-SITE STRIKES, MEDIATORS SAY -- WSJ
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@mehtapraful123 because they are divesting two chunks of their business and it would be a surprise if they waited till earnings to announce that
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$U - why pre-announce? No real value in the 10-15% short-term pop in a market dominated by negative macro news. Only possible reason is they are getting inbounds on a possible acquisition and they are trying to get the bid price up. But then why not just talk about a 'strategic review'? Just strange...
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$META goes down as much on killing teens as software goes down on an unrelated Anthropic blog post
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Ha, yeah I was trying to read into your point more. Sometimes we see what we want to see. I'm not qualified honestly to say if it's overvalued. For my use case, the worst case scenario local models bankrupt OpenAI or Claude. In that case I'm still fine to keep using it. Local models are their biggest threat in the next 3-5 years.
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openai's entire strategic position depends on being the trustworthy ai company that governments & enterprises want to work with.
erotic chatbot is maximally corrosive to that positioning. character ai is already dealing with the liability overhang & they're not even trying to sell to the pentagon.
the tail risks were genuinely nightmarish here incl severe brand damage through endless memes & stories.
Financial Times@FT
OpenAI puts erotic chatbot plans on hold ‘indefinitely’ ft.trib.al/4Q2hLpT
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@LeveragedFun @signulll Honestly I'm not even concerned about AI valuations, maybe it is overhyped at the market level. But I have users to help and a family to feed. The only question that matters to me is: is it useful? For me, clearly yes.
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@Tibbzzee @signulll yes this is what I mean. you are dependent on AI succeeding.
I don't hate it fwiw, but I also don't love it either. I think it is currently overhyped. IMO it will be like the internet - massive, game changing technology and yet lots of companies still went broke before adoption
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That's sad because SWE is like magic. You can create anything you want once you solve SWE. Including erotic chats, and video diffusion models. I'd be happy to meet with you and show you how good it's gotten. The skill ceiling keeps dropping, solving coding means you'll have access as well. It's def not a bubble. I have 500 users and use AI Assisted coding as a domain expert in the AEC field. It's def real and we're not leaving.
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@LeveragedFun @signulll If you believe in the power of Software Engineering then all problems get solved through Software Architecture, AI Research, and Coding. Solve that first and compounding gains kick in across every domain. Anything else is putting the cart before the horse.
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@Tibbzzee @signulll average person does not like AI already. lobotomizing it into a coding dev tool doesn't seem like a great strategy for long term adoption to me. but I guess entreprises will pay decent $$ for a decent tool. not sure if it justifies a $1tril valuation or will ever be profitable
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@signulll They don't need all this extra erotic or video generation stuff. Basically, be like Claude. Ship things almost everyday for devs. That will move the industry.
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@ManFriday62 @planefag im exaggerating just like your stupid comment. but 1% of your GDP dependent on *remittances* from the USA is hilarious. you are just bitter
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It's quite interesting how much commentary boils down to "avoiding a few weeks of economic disruption for other nations is more important than the US not suffering yet another rogue regime run by psychopaths pointing nuclear ICBMs at it, forever."
Ishaan Tharoor@ishaantharoor
Having just seen long lines for cooking gas cylinders on the streets of cities in India — one of many bystanders to the conflict whose population has been seriously impacted—I’m struck yet again by how relatively insulated the U.S. is from the wars it unleashes
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@ManFriday62 @planefag USA can cut off remittances to India and your country will be in a great depression
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@planefag Ohh the empire's already on the way down, don't worry about that.
Unsustainable debt, limited manufacturing, falling below replacement TFR, rising social unrest, petrodollar under active threat..can't just blast your way out of everything.
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@shawmakesmagic @gfodor it took 1 month for USA to wipe out Saddam's Iraq, who were a regional power (they fought a war with Iran!)
same timeline for an invasion of Iran, at least for the western half of the country where everyone lives
occupation is a different matter, but Iran regime is unpopular
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@gfodor Iran wont have a nuclear program, ballistic missile production, or threaten the Strait. many paths to get there, but it seems the regime is quite delusional, so I expect boots are hitting the ground. i dont think it involves a 20 yr occupation tho, ppl have PTSD from GWOT
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@cfo_mm could also say the same about Dario and Sam talking about AGI constantly. many barbers out there and they all want you to get a haircut
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One of the largest owners of software companies thinks the selloff is overdone? You don’t say?
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@Mac_DaddyChuck @RyanGirdusky there is clearly a lot of movement to Texas, Florida, Atlanta and the Carolinas. thats clear even on this map
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Look at California and New York... this is with Biden being President for 6 months.
2025-2026 is going to be a bloodbath
Michael Li 李之樸@mcpli
New from the Census Bureau: Population change by county between July 2024 & July 2025.
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