Emotional Investor

@TonerousHyus ok then i think Massie’s support is overstated. there will people who answer these polls as a popularity contest who cant actually vote for him. we know Dems love him and want him to win

@LeveragedFun Closed. Even indies can’t vote

Ed winning those who already voted 58-36 is, at least in a primary, a huge freaking red flag that Massie is the underdog. Reality is people who claim they will vote in house primaries almost always don’t make it to actually vote

@mike1010011 @IAPolls2022 @BIGDATAPOLL Baris is a Massie fan, he is not biased against the guy lol

@IAPolls2022 @BIGDATAPOLL Did you guys really conduct a poll in which only 22% of the people asked were 44 years or younger? 54% of your sample size was literally just boomers. What kind of nonsensical joke of a pole is this?

KY-04 GOP PRIMARY (with leans) 🟥 Thomas Massie: 50.6% 🟥 Ed Gallrein: 49.4% —— • Age 18-29: Massie +63 • Age 30-44: Massie +42 • Age 45-64: Gallrein +1 • Age 65+: Gallrein +22 @BIGDATAPOLL | 5/15 | 433 LV bigdatapoll.com/blog/initial-r…

@BuffaloBillCo @Ross__Hendricks whatever you say grandpa, lets get you to bed

@Ross__Hendricks Not to boomer too hard but we’ll be drinking Coca Cola and nicotining in 2029. Idk what a figma is really but hard to say for sure what figma-ing will look like then

I’m always stunned by these software names cus I’m always like “wow - I remember when that company generated all that hype back in the day. Wonder what it’s valued at now after falling 80% in the last year on AI fears” and then I look and it’s still 10x sales

@floinkus @Austen a wise man once said: "the stock is not the company, and the company is not the stock"

@Austen what a win!

Awkward when the company that AI was going to kill grows 46% YOY with 139% net dollar retention rate. When my company dies please kill it like this.

@dalibali2 i think in a year or so public sentiment on software will shift. they will turn into AI winners because they can embed AI into their platforms and sell it to their customers more effectively and cheaper this will be the new narrative, idk how long it takes to get there though

A year ago fig would be trading at 30x rev on these numbers but since all algos have zeroed out terminal multiple, it’s only up 8%

@Invesquotes you just have to have a holding period > 1 year i know, its tough to do in this market when AI stonks go up 15% every day

If $FIG reports good earnings that’s bad for $ADBE because they are eating their lunch If $FIG reports bad earnings that’s bad for $ADBE because AI is eating their lunch No way to win in this market!

@spodniewkant Q1 is always the weakest quarter

What a dud of a quarter lol $GAME Reiterating 2026 targets sounds nice but not sure how much you can trust these numbers anymore

@chesir3cat @irbezek i know, i disagree with these odds. but thats what makes a market!

@LeveragedFun @irbezek Him losing and the odds of him losing are two different things.

Thomas Massie is now 50/50 betting odds to win his primary on Tuesday. The swift movement in betting odds is based upon a poll released this morning from Quantus Insights. The poll numbers don't really make sense though if you have followed the previous polling for this race. It reminds me of the bizarre Iowa poll results right before the 2024 presidential election that proved to be incredibly inaccurate. This is an EV+ bet at these odds. x.com/QuantusInsight…

@proxietuna @WisemanCap ok? idgaf

@LeveragedFun @WisemanCap I don't own Adobe but derive perverse pleasure from watching it's bagholders cry.

$FIG actually destroyed estimates

@irbezek @chesir3cat i still think he loses

@LeveragedFun @chesir3cat They seem correct now. ;)

@wallstengine narrative violation

$FIG Q1’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $333.4M (Est $313.2M) 🟢; +46% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.10 (Est $0.06) 🟢 🔹 Net Dollar Retention: 139% 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $88.6M; 27% margin 🔹 Paid Customers: ~690K; +54% YoY FY26 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $1.422B-$1.428B (Est $1.36B) 🟢; raised from prior guide 🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $125M-$135M Q2 2026 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $348M-$350M (Est $327M) 🟢; +40% YoY at midpoint Other Metrics: 🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $52.1M; 16% margin 🔹 Customers >$10K ARR: 15,218; +37% YoY 🔹 Customers >$100K ARR: 1,525; +48% YoY 🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $97.3M 🔹 Cash & Marketable Securities: $1.6B Commentary: 🔸 “Q1 was an incredible quarter for Figma: revenue growth accelerated for the second consecutive quarter and customers are going bigger and broader with Figma than ever before.” 🔸 “Our outperformance in Q1 was fueled by stronger than expected seat expansion across entire organizations, driven by design’s growing importance and adoption of our AI products.”

@KrisPatel99 if Ford can become an AI play, so can RCL.

$NCLH $CCL $RCL Ok hear me out ... "Cruise Ship Datacenters" Not sure if people are aware of this but Cruise Ships generate roughly 100MW of electricity... There are a whole bunch of Cruiseships that end up on beachs waiting to get broken down... What would be the cost of retrofitting a Datacetner on those thing... Im just imagining... lol

@emilhartela yes you are the 1st to notice SaaS stock comp. thank you for this insight

X takes on $NOW are unhinged. Yes it likely is a great company and will likely dominate in the future. But the 20x FCF everyone keeps quoting is not the real number. Maybe 1 in 50 posts correctly understands that the true cash generation is meaningfully lower once you account for SBC. To their credit SBC is coming down over time but it still does not mean the company is dirt cheap. Real TTM multiple is closer to 35x, and forward is around 28x. That said, when a great company starts to look almost cheap, that is usually when you want to be paying attention. My read is it could still slide toward the low 20s, and after that it likely becomes a great opportunity. The risk of waiting is real though; momentum is still in the wrong direction but we are getting close.

@KrisPatel99 @FreeCacheFlow $0 is an exaggeration but we are currently in the hype and infinite money cycle for AI. it will be brutal for these companies when capex spending gets pulled back

@LeveragedFun @FreeCacheFlow idk about Zero but I think it will get commoditized. Inference costs will keep dropping and theyll have to keep using cash to build to support revenue.

Cerebrus IPO Just remember the last time Brad G was involved in IPO's and SPAC's ... it was $SNOW and $GRAB. This doesn't mean that we're at the absolute top but we might be getting closer... Since then... $GRAB went to $15/share and now is $3.50/share $SNOW went to $400/share and is now $150/share When these private investors bring these companies to the public market... it isnt because they want you to share in their gains. They are looking to use you as exit liquidity because of the companies want to sell their stock for the highest price possible. When the overall market is booming, they rush to go public to cash in on those sky-high prices. An IPO is how a company's early investors and founders take their profits. When you see all the "smart money" rushing to sell their shares to the public, it’s a clue they think the market won't get any higher. At market tops, investors are overly excited and afraid of missing out. They will blindly buy into new companies, making it the perfect time for investment banks to push new stocks onto eager buyers. Early in a bull market, only great companies go public. Near the end, lower-quality companies with zero profits or bad ideas rush in because they know it's their only chance to get funded by careless investors. Every new IPO dumps a massive amount of new stock into the market. Eventually, all these new shares soak up the available cash from buyers. When the buyers run out of money, the market stops going up and starts to fall. Summary: DONT BECOME SOMEONE ELSES LIQUIDITY

@FreeCacheFlow @KrisPatel99 it will be very hard for anyone buying Cerebras at $300+ to make money besides a short term flip to a greater fool

@FreeCacheFlow @KrisPatel99 yeah IPOs used to be reasonable. now they are overhyped and launched at unreasonable valuations. Coreweave was “cheap” because there was a lot of skepticism they could ever be profitable. in fact, i still think its a $0 in the end

@GabGrowth somehow we've surpassed the SPAC valuations of 2021

$CBRS Pretty cheap, just 200x sales

@dirtygreenpaper i say Adobe but you could slot in a lot of stocks during this selloff of everything not-AI

@dirtygreenpaper you can make a lot of money on falling knives, you just have to buy at a good enough price and then wait (and be right) i am quite confident i will make money on Adobe at this price, even if it takes 2 years

Novice investors underperform because they only chase falling knives. But the ones who have graduated from losing money understand that the market sets the price, not them. Buying a stock that has ripped 20% is hard to buy into. That's why those names keep ripping. NFA