Nassau Centrist Mapper

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Nassau Centrist Mapper

Nassau Centrist Mapper

@LIEngProf

English & Film Professor/#Educator/#FilmBuff/Hobbyist Mapmaker: Threads of Past Elections & State Trends/Proud Long Island #ModerateDem/Dad💙👦🏼👩🏼🚫No DMs

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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
CORRECTED: ‘26 House Predictions Thanks to those of you who pointed out some of the color code errors I made on the map yesterday. Several of the OH & VA districts were the opposite of what they should’ve been, and I had AZ-02 (not 01) as a Dem pickup.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf

At long last, the January House predictions!! Based on an environment of D+4 (the rough GCB), I predict that Dems will net 10 seats to bring the House to 225-210 D. Unsurprisingly, the gains for both parties come from swing seats and newly drawn CDs 🤏🏻🧵Considerations & 🔑👇🏻

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Irene
Irene@TheDeepsouthDem·
@LIEngProf didn't they also do this in sc in 2020? I distinctly remember getting ads about how that third party candidate was extreme
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
Dems have actually employed this tactic a number of times with Libertarian candidates. When Sen Jon Tester faced a tough challenge from Rep Denny Rehberg in ‘12, Dems famously ran ads playing up Libertarian Dan Cox as the “true” conservative in the race. Cox received 6.5%.
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Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini

This would not be the first time Republicans successfully backed a conservative spoiler on a liberal line to siphon votes. In 2024, Anthony Frascone, a Mike Lawler ally, won the Working Families Party nomination over Mondaire Jones. He won 2% of the vote in November.

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✝️ Illinois Republican 🇺🇸🏳️‍🌈
✝️ Illinois Republican 🇺🇸🏳️‍🌈@4547Enjoyer·
@LIEngProf @NickyScatz All of them were running on borrowed time basically A bulk of the 2010 flips were literally just those conservadems similar to how a bulk of the 2018 flips were Romney-Clinton district republicans who finally had polarization catch up to them
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Nicky🇺🇸
Nicky🇺🇸@NickyScatz·
Democrats had 253-178 control of the house in 2009 and the affordable care act only passed by 5 votes.
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Sage Of Time🇵🇷
Sage Of Time🇵🇷@SageOfTime1·
The 2026 IL CD-09 Congressional Democratic primary, a contest between Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, Journalist Kat Abughazaleh, State Senator Laura Fine, among others (including State Senator Mike Simmons, former FBI agent Phil Andrew and Progressive Bushra Amiwala)
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Pop Crave
Pop Crave@PopCrave·
Chuck Norris has passed away aged 86.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@SeanTrende Ironically, that district was held by a Dem from the ‘60s up to when JHB held it, with the exception of an R holding for two terms after the Republican Revolution.
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
The Worst ‘10s Gerrymanders, Part III: GOP OH (tie for 1st) After winning 5 seats in the ‘10 wave and taking full control of state gov, OH Rs looked to consolidate their gains. After splitting the losses from reapportionment, Rs drew Dems 4 vote sinks: - A new seat in Columbus (3) - A VRA Cleveland/Akron seat (11) - An Akron to Youngstown seat (13) - And Marcy Kaptur’s notorious Snake on the Lake district (9) from Cleveland to Toledo Rs had significant advantages in all the other seats, even if some looked marginal for the time, in an Obama x2 state. The map would prove remarkably durable, with not a single seat changing hands for its entire existence. @Mapping_Buckeye @OHPredictions
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Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf

The Worst ‘10s Gerrymanders, Part II: GOP PA (tie for 1st) With full control of the state gov, PA Rs had two main goals: Keep the 5 seats they gained in the ‘10 wave and make sure it was Dems who lost a seat through reapportionment. They achieved this through the following: - They double-bunked Dem Reps Mark Critz & Jason Altmire, causing the latter to lose in the Dem primary (Critz then lost in the general). - They drew 5 Dem vote sinks: 3 in Philly (1/2/13); one in Pittsburgh (14); and one in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Poconos (17) - They drew several notoriously contorted districts: The Erie Split (3/5); the Western Tomahawk (12); and my personal favorite Goofy Kicking Donald Duck (7). - This led to a 13-5 R delegation in an Obama x2 state. The map was struck down as a partisan gerrymander by the PA SC for the ‘18 elections. @DJBranham @Free_CentralPA @PAMapper @pamapguy @DerekHinPGH

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James🗳
James🗳@_fat_ugly_rat_·
It really sucks that our lame duck period is so long here. Imagine how much damage Trump could do in 3 months if a Dem wins the presidency in 2028, not to mention how bad it could get if dems don't win the House/Senate this year.
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Tectonicty
Tectonicty@Tectonicty34·
@LIEngProf Didn’t Dems in Ohio beg the Ohio Supreme Court to do something but pretty much nothing happened even trying to get a 90 days referendum on the whole redistricting process or something?
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Ohio Predictions
Ohio Predictions@OHPredictions·
@LIEngProf Yeah I don’t particularly remember this map but looking back on it this was disgusting
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🤠🇺🇲🇨🇺
🤠🇺🇲🇨🇺@astrohxncho·
This map made Dennis Kucinich consider re-election in Washington
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf

The Worst ‘10s Gerrymanders, Part III: GOP OH (tie for 1st) After winning 5 seats in the ‘10 wave and taking full control of state gov, OH Rs looked to consolidate their gains. After splitting the losses from reapportionment, Rs drew Dems 4 vote sinks: - A new seat in Columbus (3) - A VRA Cleveland/Akron seat (11) - An Akron to Youngstown seat (13) - And Marcy Kaptur’s notorious Snake on the Lake district (9) from Cleveland to Toledo Rs had significant advantages in all the other seats, even if some looked marginal for the time, in an Obama x2 state. The map would prove remarkably durable, with not a single seat changing hands for its entire existence. @Mapping_Buckeye @OHPredictions

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sunfall
sunfall@createsunfall·
@LIEngProf @Mapping_Buckeye @kkondik Good lord the 90s CDs were art projects. That’s not even the worst of them, the 90s southern districts were really impressively awful.
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Kyle Kondik
Kyle Kondik@kkondik·
NEW Crystal Ball -- Six gubernatorial rating changes today in favor of Democrats, but Republicans still have a chance to buck the usual pattern of midterm governorship loss for the president's party
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Scott Crass
Scott Crass@CrassPolitical·
@LIEngProf It lasted to perfection until the last year it was in affect - 8 years ago this week in fact when a youthful Dem named Conor Lamb picked up Tim Murphy's seat
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
The Worst ‘10s Gerrymanders, Part II: GOP PA (tie for 1st) With full control of the state gov, PA Rs had two main goals: Keep the 5 seats they gained in the ‘10 wave and make sure it was Dems who lost a seat through reapportionment. They achieved this through the following: - They double-bunked Dem Reps Mark Critz & Jason Altmire, causing the latter to lose in the Dem primary (Critz then lost in the general). - They drew 5 Dem vote sinks: 3 in Philly (1/2/13); one in Pittsburgh (14); and one in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Poconos (17) - They drew several notoriously contorted districts: The Erie Split (3/5); the Western Tomahawk (12); and my personal favorite Goofy Kicking Donald Duck (7). - This led to a 13-5 R delegation in an Obama x2 state. The map was struck down as a partisan gerrymander by the PA SC for the ‘18 elections. @DJBranham @Free_CentralPA @PAMapper @pamapguy @DerekHinPGH
Nassau Centrist Mapper tweet media
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf

The Worst ‘10s Gerrymanders, Part I: GOP NC (tie for 1st) After decades of Dems drawing their preferred lines in NC, Rs finally gained control in ‘10 (and the Dem Gov had no power to stop them) and returned the favor with a punishing gerrymander. It was meant to eliminate 4 Dem seats for a 10-3 map in an Obama +.3/Romney +2 state. It had the following results: - Dems were placed into 3 massive vote sinks: 1st (rural black counties/Durham); 4th (Research Triangle/Raleigh/Fayetteville); & 12th (Charlotte/Winston-Salem/Greensboro) - Reps Brad Miller & Heath Shuler were forced into retirement, while Rep Larry Kissel lost - Rep Mike McIntyre (7) was able to narrowly survive - It contained such gems as the Angry Rat (2) and the Dancing Genie (4) The map wouldn’t survive the decade, to put it lightly.

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Sage Of Time🇵🇷
Sage Of Time🇵🇷@SageOfTime1·
The 2026 IL Senate Democratic Primary in Cook county, a microcosm of the statewide results saw LG Juliana Stratton besting congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi by 11.7% with strong urban support,
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Nassau Centrist Mapper
Nassau Centrist Mapper@LIEngProf·
@erickson_68 @kkondik @Mapping_Buckeye I imagine CA Dems are pushing hard for most/all of those lower polling candidates to drop out so they don’t play spoiler. The only time I can remember this happening in the past was in ‘12, when Pete Aguilar got locked out of his House seat, buying Gary Miller another term.
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Erickson
Erickson@erickson_68·
On a separate note, shouldn’t CA be rated Likely D until after the primary? Multiple polls suggest a Democratic shutout is possible. “Safe” should be reserved for races with virtually no risk to the favored party—and that’s not the case here. Dems certainly need a wake up call in this race.
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Turquoise Cat
Turquoise Cat@Turquoise__Cat·
Resisters, please follow @Mo_Honu 💙 For sharp takes on holding the line against GOP chaos, Trump enablers, and threats to democracy—from calling out voter suppression to demanding accountability. Solid resister energy! 🐢🌊 🐾Follow 💙Like 🚀Repost
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NY Law Elections, Census & Redistricting Institute
NY Law Elections, Census & Redistricting Institute@NYElectionNews·
Democrats New York may now look to amending the state constitution for a new congressional map in 2028
Jeff Wice@JeffWice

BREAKING-NY congressional CD 11 redistricting challenge discontinued. @RedistrictNet @gr_ashford ⁦@mahoneyw⁩ @brigidbergin ⁦@YanceyRoy⁩ ⁦@Danjanison⁩ @_aizaguirre @DanClarkReports ⁦@_rebeccaclewis⁩ ⁦@bleereporter⁩ ⁦@poozer87⁩ @sarbetter

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Jelajahi

@TheDeepsouthDem @4547Enjoyer @NickyScatz @SeanTrende @elections_w_etn @Mapping_Buckeye @OHPredictions @_fat_ugly_rat_