ProProp

@EnergyPeddler Allies and NA need to feel some pain before joining to help open SoH

US administration must know they are playing us for time right? Iran gains more leverage every day.

@TankerTrackers Have any non Iranian ships entered the strait?

The #IranWar has now gone on for 28 days, and within that time, around 55-60 #tankers have managed to depart via the #StraitofHormuz; nearly half of which are Iran-linked. At a rate of only 2 tankers a day on average, it is a far cry from the >100 a day just a month ago. #OOTT

@Rory_Johnston The market will soon force US / GCC / NATO action

Gm, oil watchers Brent crude back above $110 this morning because—and stop me if you’ve heard this one—the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and the world oil market is losing 15 million barrels every day that remains true

@CRUDEOIL231 @ALikhodedov If there is ground presence, initiated this weekend, does this become a means to an end? Priority #1 is to secure Hormuz. Yes there's a supply gap, but also visibility to normalization.

Friend, Tbh i’m not worried about any of this, even if the peacekeeper guys come in and start trolling. The die is cast, and my mind is made up. We’re all so busy these days, so arguing on X just feels like a form of relaxation. Sometimes it’s important to hear out good dissenters—though they're becoming increasingly rare. Sure the trolls can be annoying sometimes, but what can you do? My core longs were picked up in the $60s, so it’s pretty funny to see them mocking losses I don't even have. The path forward is clear. While I can’t control the vol, physical supply losses are accumulating even as we speak. To be fair, fading geopolitics has been a highly effective play until now. Traditionally geopolitical tension tends to fade out over time. The only difference this time is time is on my side. There’s a real, massive supply loss. I’ll let time do the talking, and that’s all that matters to me. And it feels just like those days leading up to the war a week before. Back then, actions and words were polar opposites too. They’re talking about peace now, yet thousands of ground troops are being deployed. It’s interesting. I don't know exactly what's on your mind, but this is at least where I stand. And honestly, these comments are as much for myself as they are for anyone else.

We're all wandering in search of the truth, but I wanna emphasize a massive amount of supply loss is accumulating in the meantime. #oott #iran

@Rory_Johnston Market will eventually fade DJT one-way commentary.

@BubleQe Fantastic thread QE! ETF flow will push $TOU higher

I keep seeing comments on X & thought it might help to put a simple tweet thread together (using very simple Finance concepts to illustate). Despite paying out ~$14/sh in dividends, Tourmaline Oil / $TOU.TO "Share price has been flat for 3 years". ✔️Agree & rightly so. 1/x

@BDEPardell @calvinfroedge Thats fair, and imo they should continue developing co-gen or nuclear capacity. Not too worried about 2036 just the next 12 mo

@ProProp5 @calvinfroedge Well after a massive fed bazooka that capex will look small (idk). Investing now in infrastructure maybe a hella a lot cheaper then in 10 years.

Australia is 2 weeks away from Mad Max

@BDEPardell @calvinfroedge Thankfully NA will see higher cost but no shortages! But how will the market view AI capex into this? Doesn't it push spending higher and remove stability?

@ProProp5 @calvinfroedge There is no energy shortage in North America just rising prices. Bitcoin does what it wants to do, only thing is see that is predictive about bitcoin is that it likes to stay above the price is costs to produce which is around $60k usd. Bitcoin is a risk proxy for me. Risk on!

@BDEPardell @calvinfroedge Does BTC rise due to high energy prices? I have trouble justifying massive tech capex with energy shortages.

@ProProp5 @calvinfroedge Mag 7 are down about 10% YTD. Bitcoin is saying risk on, hope the break out continues!

@VolteFaceInvest Leverage over NATO is real... problem for Trump is the price $SPY

The ugly truth is Noeth America has the food, fuels, fertilizers and chemicals it needs. The EU is likely to break apart if exposed to a long enough closure of the Hormuz. And much of Asia is just as dead in that long closure scenario. Embarrassing Trump here will end nations

@BDEPardell @calvinfroedge Ya tech names are beaten down...

@calvinfroedge Dude buy tech and growth. Metals and commodities close to top.

@Rory_Johnston Rory, how would this make it worse vs almost nil traffic now? Appreciate all your input the last couple weeks.

"Trump is also weighing a seizure of Iran's critical oil depot on Kharg Island — a move that would require U.S. boots on the ground — if tankers remain bottled up in the Persian Gulf, U.S. officials say." He realizes that this will make the tanker bottle-up much worse... right?

@cubedpermian @VolteFaceInvest Is it possible we energy specialists are delusional? I'm no macro guy but don't see how the market can ignore the largest oil supply disruption ever at 6-8 mmbd. What's the risk in raising cash now and entering again in 1-2 months if we're wrong? Like 5%?

@VolteFaceInvest Ive been shocked how this has held up. We've had bigger market corrections and vol events from things the fed can solve with two clicks of the mouse. In its current form, this is recessionary for many regions. Utter demand destruction. Naivety to the extreme

Well we are getting closer to one of the two ends of the Wipeout barbell setup. Either general equities feel the pain of out of control Hormuz problems or they get solved and rug pull energy related equities like never done before....

@UnintendedCons5 @OilCfd So refining capacity slows, crude stocks build, demand is crippled. Who wins? Trading houses, downstream, tankers?

@OilCfd Do products and then in percentagee terms with run cuts.... Scarier.

I don't think you understand... link in bio

@JoshYoung @VolteFaceInvest This is odd, and the first time I've seen Chinese stocks questioned. Does Kpler or other track Chinese inventory via satellite?

@VolteFaceInvest 🎯

Why would China cut refining runs despite record high refining margins? Don't they have 1.2 billion barrels in storage?

@ed_fin @JavierBlas Ed, is there adequate export infrastructure to handle Aramco's east west pipeline at full capacity?

@JavierBlas This will be too nuanced for 98% of Twitter, Javier 😂

As the US-Iran war goes on, focus on oil flow and not on oil production: What matters now is exports ex Strait of Hormuz, not well head output in KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and Iraq. Yes, later is deteriorating, but former is (from a very low base) improving (via bypass pipelines).

@cubedpermian @RegTown74 @VolteFaceInvest Think general markets are asleep at the wheel? Or NA is insulated enough?

@RegTown74 @VolteFaceInvest What dip? Snp is like 5% from ATH. There's zero value anywhere from a sectoral standpoint. Sure, there's names here and there that one could point to. But if you look at sectors there's nothing even remotely close to a 5-10year historical discount. Everything is bid up

Maybe that gif I use for the cash bunker is going to be less funny Monday morning.

@Energy_Tidbits @Mattg2235 Airlines hedge their fuel demand right? Whats stopping them from cancelling flights and realizing those hedges at higher margin?

I haven't booked any airline tickets post US attack on Iran but assume all airlines have already added fuel surcharges on all air tickets. Jet fuel prices going up hugely. Graph per 👇@Mattg2235 report. #oott

@EnergyCynic @GasBuddyGuy @staunovo Is this the event that breaks WTI out of the 4 yr downtrend?

@GasBuddyGuy @staunovo Agree.

Oil will nearly certainly jump on Sunday evening as electronic trading opens. My guess is a 5-10% jump, back to over $70/bbl… but could change based on depth or length of attacks on Iran

@VanIsleInvestor @NuggetCapital L48 production is falling. $70 wti makes sense YE26.

@NuggetCapital Seriously, he does know mid terms are coming up, and regardless of who is in office in the US, nobody wants high gas prices...

SCHACHTER: OIL IS POTENTIALLY GOING TO $200.