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Toby MG
10K posts
Toby MG
@TobyMGData
Politics obsessed Wisconsinite, digging into the data. A progressive, punster patriot defeating bad guys in 17 of the last 21 statewide elections. he/him
Bergabung Nisan 2022
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@JakeFro19610091 I pretty much agree- except that's why its remarkable that Madison is holding onto so much of its 2025 vote. The issue we're going to be watching for is WHERE turnout is down. If Madison holds on better than the rest of the state, its going to be an early night
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@TobyMGData I don't think 2025 is gonna be a good comparison, this year's race has received practically 0 attention or funding, turnout is gonna be much lower
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Compared to yesterday’s post (since I’m nearly certain in-person absentee numbers are included in the counts for ballots issued and returned), Madison recorded 1,924 votes today- 873 mail ballots and 1,051 IPAV.
That would put them at a 29.39% mail return rate.
Their total of
Madison WI Clerk@MadisonWIClerk
Absentee stats for the City of Madison as of 3/25/26 at 9:00pm: ✔️Absentees issued: 19,244 ✔️Absentees returned: 7,126 ✔️In-person absentee (early) votes: 2,082 ✔️Total registered voters: 189,693 myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Vote-Abs… #MadisonVotes #BeAVoter
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bit and Milwaukee's total of about 1900 is only a bit behind Madison's 2,082.
This is further evidence that the reason for Milwaukee's mail vote processing lag is NOT people not voting- its about receiving and processing the votes people are casting.
The Ziedler location downtown
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Our good friends in Milwaukee have begun posting their nightly updates, as well, which don't include mail numbers but DO include a breakdown of IPAV by location. You can see for yourself at city.milwaukee.gov/earlyvoting
Milwaukee, like Madison, increased IPAV on their second day by a
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@BlueCheese608 @DiscourseMKE Crawford won it in 2025, and Evers only lost by like 1k votes in 2022
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If Waukesha goes even 50-50 Dem-GOP, Wisconsin is as safely blue as Virginia.
I'm not deluded that it will be 50-50 this year or in 2028, but it's getting closer.
Dan Shafer@DanRShafer
Don’t sleep on the Waukesha mayor’s race.
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@CamDaddyCaves @DanRShafer City of Waukesha I meant, not the entire county. Crawford won it by like 600 some votes and only lost Brookfield by like 350
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@TobyMGData @DanRShafer Could see a scenario of ozaukee going blue but Waukesha staying red
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for return rate since there are fewer requests this year).
The return rate should just keep growing more quickly now.
We are at around 16.4% now, should break 20% tomorrow, 30% by Friday or Saturday, and 40% by next Tuesday if 23 and 25 are a pattern we follow.
Exciting times!
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BIG jumps in mail returns on the concurrent Thursday 12 days out- 26k ballots came in in 2025 and almost 28k came in 2023, boosting the statewide return rate by 7% and almost 9% respectively.
We’ll see if that happens again and we can stay ahead of 23 (we’re ahead of both years
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@CamDaddyCaves @DanRShafer I think there’s a strong possibility Taylor carries both- and Ozaukee as a whole. Been waiting on Bluzaukee for a long time
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@DanRShafer Is Waukesha nor Brookfield actually going blue or not?
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@DanRShafer No coverage, and mark my words - no mainstream local news will talk about it
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shoutout to all the right-wing twitter trolls spending the last few hours saying she's trying not to debate
Matt Smith@mattsmith_news
NEW: The Wisconsin Supreme Court debate is rescheduled for next Thursday, April 2 at 7 p.m. between Maria Lazar and Chris Taylor The debate will be held at WISN-TV with no audience, instead of Marquette Law School, because of the last minute change and scheduling conflicts
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Taylor's only goal needs to be to maintain as much of Crawford's vote as she can in what is almost certain to be significantly lower turnout.
Crawford won by nearly 240k votes (it was actually enough votes to win every Gubernatorial election in state history besides 2018, 2022,
Taniel@Taniel
My first check-in on Wisconsin's turnout: —55K people have voted. (That compares to 86K at the equivalent time last year.) —30% of ballots cast so far in Dane & Milwaukee. (27% at equivalent 2025 point.) —16% so far in conservative WOW counties. (19% at equivalent 2025 point.)
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@ptwearnhardtfan The “algorithm” is people voting and then counting their votes. Enough with the debunked conspiracy nonsense.
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@TobyMGData Taylor will win by 10 points. That's how the algorithm is set up. Look at the last 3. It's obvious.
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Maria Lazar was hoping and praying this wouldn’t happen and she could blame it on Taylor. If Lazar speaks like she writes this should be pretty hilarious
Matt Smith@mattsmith_news
NEW: The Wisconsin Supreme Court debate is rescheduled for next Thursday, April 2 at 7 p.m. between Maria Lazar and Chris Taylor The debate will be held at WISN-TV with no audience, instead of Marquette Law School, because of the last minute change and scheduling conflicts
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Toby MG me-retweet
Latest from Taylor campaign:
Matt Smith@mattsmith_news
BREAKING: Tonight's Wisconsin Supreme Court debate is postponed after Judge Chris Taylor's campaign says she was hospitalized this morning for "additional evaluation" after waking up not feeling well TBD on possible rescheduled debate, now less than 2 weeks from Election Day
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@KeshaWorld91 They'll get it rescheduled, but honestly it couldn't matter much less. No one was going to watch it who doesn't already know who they're voting for
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@sbauerAP @ChrisTaylorWI @JudgeMariaLazar This is an irresponsible tweet that does not mention medical reasons or the request to reschedule
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Democratic-backed Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate @ChrisTaylorWI pulls out of the only scheduled debate with conservative challenger @JudgeMariaLazar hours before it was to take place tonight
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Somewhat shockingly decent statement from a campaign that has been getting more desperate and low road in recent days
Matt Smith@mattsmith_news
Lazar campaign: “We wish Chris Taylor a speedy recovery and look forward to a robust debate as soon as possible for the voters of Wisconsin.”
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