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🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢
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🟢 BehavioralEdge 🟢
@_MarketBehavior
Investing in social behaviour: predictive and disruption-resistant. Exploring the human code. $HIMS $DUOL $META $GOOG $AMZN
Mediterranean Europe Bergabung Mart 2025
55 Mengikuti384 Pengikut
@_MarketBehavior Yes sir. That’s how I approach investing. I’ve never thought I was too smart not to follow Buffett, Munger, Pabrai, or Thiels investing strategies.
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Been a really good year for me so far.
$DUOL is the only position currently in the red, I’ll share a full update on that soon.
But $AMD alone is up over 350% in the last year.
Personally, I prefer running a highly concentrated portfolio and tracking it very closely.
In simple terms, you basically need:
a) consistent income stream(s)
b) aggressive, concentrated investing
c) time
That’s how ordinary people can realistically turn $10k into $1M over years.
Christian Darnton@CMDarnton0
New here? You can check my track record of public calls online. $AMD is just the latest one to explode after I’ve been calling it for years. 👇 course.christiandarnton.com/proof/
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@hypergrowth102 @Investinc_Intel "know what you own", stamina and patience 🎯
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@hypergrowth102 @Investinc_Intel Sometimes investing is really easy
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Google has launched a Health Premium/Coach for $9.99 per month (health data and wearables plus content and coaching).
$DUOL is the only company completely focused on leveraging habits to help you actively pursue your goals.
Google, Amazon, Meta, Netflix, and Spotify leverage habits that dwell on passivity. They barely have data on how to make you take action.
There is no such big difference between a coach and a teacher.
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@_MarketBehavior @orderer7 The reason I would say Duo is not effective simply is because it won't structure around methods that work well. It had certain sound features like Duolingo Stories but got rid of it.
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@FromValue It is worth leveraging this reality in your favor.
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“A bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don’t need it.”
Bob Hope
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@tallafer_robert @orderer7 Again:
Roughly 0.7%—or 7 out of 1,000 students—actually achieve second language fluency solely through school instruction.
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@tallafer_robert @orderer7 You are right, at least partially. That's how education studies are.
And now the important question: are other systems better? Could you provide data about their results and compare them to $DUOL's?
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@RoryCooney @ChrisMMillas How do you link that to research on education and educational psychology?
First principles: knowledge acquisition doesn't correlate with input but with the system's and/or person's ability to process that and generate output.
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The chat interface that people use now will be radically different by next year. Much more agentic with memory as is being developed in openclaw.
Asking AI to design a course and teach you something seems pretty reasonable.
If Duolingo make it easy and accessible great, but, I don’t know that they would get away with charging much for th service.
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My updated 48-page $DUOL Ultimate Investment Thesis following the Q1 earnings is now LIVE.
You can view and download it for FREE here: bit.ly/3ILzOc4
Note: For the best viewing experience, download and open in Microsoft Word.
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Everybody feels very brave giving opinions on politics, psychology, childcare and dogcare, for instance. In education and $DUOL this happens as well, on steroids.
Compare that to $ASTS. Only knowledgable people will dare to discuss whether E-band (60-90 GHz) and Ka-band are better or worst for D2D than 850 MHz (Band 5), 700 MHz (Band 12/14/17), 1900 MHz (PCS) bands.
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@_MarketBehavior You're probably right, those guys are not genius level
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I’ve learned a lot from many $DUOL bears. They made me think hard on many parts of my thesis.
I’ve learned absolutely nothing from $HIMS bears. These guys don’t make me think at all.
Bottom 1% of all bear theses you’ll find on this app. Mountain troll level.
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@RoryCooney @ChrisMMillas Which percentage of people do you think are able to learn the way you do?
To actually learn anything with an LLM, whatever it is, you need a solid base, high motivation, and a very structured mind.
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I’m impressed with how you’ve stuck to your guns on this investment despite the share price.
I’ve tried it for refreshing my Japanese, but, just didn’t enjoy the gamification of learning.
I can’t get over the fact that if I want to learn something now, I just go straight to an LLM.
I can get it to actually as a dedicated tutor and even converse with it.
How does Duolingo compete with that.
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Rory's right, for motivated adults who can prompt an LLM, ChatGPT wins. That's maybe 5% of users.
The other 95% need the owl at 9pm. The streak. The leaderboard. The five-minute habit loop. A blank ChatGPT prompt requires self-direction. Duolingo provides it by default.
And. DAU/MAU hit 41.9% which is YouTube territory after ChatGPT launched. If LLMs were substituting, that number falls. It's at an all-time high.
I bout fell out of my chair when I read this:
$DUOL makes $0.65 / MAU. Spotify makes $4.23. No upsells. No cross-sells. No B2B. Math and music barely monetized. Social layer not built yet.
If revenue per user just doubles, still less than a third of Spotify, it's a $10B stock. Think $amzn when it was only selling books.
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@tallafer_robert @orderer7 How do you assess whether this answer from Gemini is worrisome or just the expected outcome?
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@_MarketBehavior @orderer7 The picture isn't as pretty as the studies make you to believe.
I'll post the explanation i got from Gemini:The flaws in Duolingo studies boil down to three main issues:
* **The Attrition Trick (Survival Bias):** Studies lose **50% to 70%** of participants but calculate ...
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@tallafer_robert @orderer7 What are your conclusions?
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A perfect example of why 99% of retail underperforms.
Imagine thinking the value of a business has anything to do with short interest.
It also betrays a stunning lack of historical knowledge.
Hated Moats Investor@HatedMoats
Should you avoid heavily shorted stocks like $HIMS? Generally, yes. You should. Unless you can clearly explain why the short thesis is wrong, what would prove you wrong, and why the upside compensates for the risk. Short sellers are not always right, but shorting is expensive and risky, and usually done by institutions that have more information / research available than you do. So high short interest often reflects a real bearish thesis, not just a speculation. Be it bad fundamentals, stretched valuation, dilution risk, fraud concerns, weak balance sheet, or a dying business model. And it's not big evil institutions hating and trying to hurt the little guys. All they ever try to do is make money. You need to realise that. The emotional connotations tied to it are purely retail thing. Of course, respect anomalies like $GME, but don’t romanticise them. Many people will waste their entire investing life trying to catch another GameStop. Don't be that person.
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Luis on vibe coding. Recent interview.
youtube.com/watch?v=GDeEAT…
About $DUOL chess (7M DAUs in less than 1 year):
"(the two engineers) basically vibe coded the first prototype of it. They downloaded Cursor..."
"a few months ago we had a day where everybody in the company had to vibe code something"
World-class companies act as a "launching pad" or "accelerator channel" for the exceptionally talented person individual.
There is no question that an anonymous account operating behind a screen can leverage generative AI to 'vibe-code' a remarkable prototype. Yet the fundamental question remains: what happens next?
YouTube
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