TopButton

Prediction: Labor market and inflation will both be weak 1H2026. There’s not enough cuts priced in for 2026. Not because the Fed will bow to Trump but because the data dependent Fed will get that weak job and inflation data.

@overthinker_eth @LuizaJarovsky Why NYSE is not?

@LuizaJarovsky What is this if isn't gambling. u bet, u won or lose. is poker gambling? yeah why polymarket is not?

🚨 Unpopular opinion: Polymarket and Kalshi are GAMBLING platforms and should be regulated as such.

@gptftw @benwfreeman1 @AOC Yes. Just like executives at publicly traded companies. Just like White House staffers. Just like Martha Stewart.

@benwfreeman1 @AOC Are these people supposed to be on an honor system??

I’d encourage you to read all of this, @AOC. It lists many of the groups you mention

@TrashBrosMelee Lol basically

@TopButtonTrades What is it good for? ....keeping us from rate cuts.

Prediction: Labor market and inflation will both be weak 1H2026. There’s not enough cuts priced in for 2026. Not because the Fed will bow to Trump but because the data dependent Fed will get that weak job and inflation data.

@CobGreat @JPow_Printer @ThijsBloem1599 @receipts_lol @JavierBlas Were there attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure prior to 3/2? The articles mention multiple Iranian strikes on gulf energy infrastructure beginning then.

@TopButtonTrades @JPow_Printer @ThijsBloem1599 @receipts_lol @JavierBlas They were retaliating against US/Zionist attacks on their energy sector.

Both sides are now targeting upstream (ie, production) oil and natural gas assets. Is this an attempt to escalate to de-escalate? Or is it simply a sign that escalation is spiralling out of control?

@AOC We’re with you on that. Please work with us. We want regulated fair markets where ppl using material non-public information and/or placing suspicious trades are investigated & prosecuted SP and oil futes were insidered HARD today 15m before Trump’s truth. THAT is what needs attn

This is absolutely not enough. Just on the policy piece alone, there are SO many individuals - staff, advisors, consultants, cabinet secretaries, spouses, and more - that can trade on insider information. This is just a fig leaf to deflect from criticism. We need to do more.

@adamscochran @mansourtarek_ @AOC As a trader I use Kalshi BECAUSE it’s regulated. Does it need work? Yes but tbf Kalshi has been moving hard on that in 2026.

@mansourtarek_ @AOC A lot of arguments I see is people claiming you don’t want to be regulated. If AOC wanted to sit down with you, understand the protections you currently have, and work with you guys on legislation that addressed reasonable gaps, to improve consumer protection, would you do it?

Lol. Love when non-parents confidently opine on parenthood as if they have any fucking clue. Also, babies are part of human society. Idt anyone LIKES crying babies in general. But put in some earplugs or headphones and get over it.

@JPow_Printer @CobGreat @ThijsBloem1599 @receipts_lol @JavierBlas The war had started already wtf

@TopButtonTrades @CobGreat @ThijsBloem1599 @receipts_lol @JavierBlas Imagine having horrible reading comprehension. “Since the start of the war”

@PollTracker2024 Buttigieg +20? Did we only survey white counties?

The Public Sentiment Institute poll | 3/20 Approvals (net)
✅ Barack Obama: +26
✅ Conan O'Brien: +26
✅ Pete Buttigieg: +20
✅ Josh Shapiro: +14
✅ Cristiano Ronaldo: +14
✅ Gretchen Whitmer: +13
✅ Bernie Sanders: +10
✅ Kai Cenat: +9
✅ Cory Booker: +8
✅ Ben Shapiro: +8
✅ Mark Levin: +7
✅ Gavin Newsom: +7
✅ AOC: +6
✅ Hakeem Jeffries: +6
✅ Kamala Harris: +5
✅ Joe Rogan: +5
✅ Thomas Massie: +5
✅ Wes Moore: +5
✅ John Kiriakou: +5
✅ Marco Rubio: +4
✅ Barron Trump: +4
✅ IShowSpeed: +4
✅ Adin Ross: +4
✅ James Fishback: +4
✅ Joe Biden: +3
✅ Charlie Kirk: +3
✅ Stephen A. Smith: +2
✅ Zohran Mamdani: +1 ❌ Hillary Clinton: -1
❌ Bill Clinton: -2
❌ Mike Johnson: -2
❌ Playboi Carti: -2
❌ Clavicular: -2
❌ Ron DeSantis: -5
❌ Nick Fuentes: -6
❌ Nancy Pelosi: -8
❌ Chuck Schumer: -8
❌ John Thune: -9
❌ Candace Owens: -10
❌ JD Vance: -11
❌ Laura Loomer: -12
❌ Lindsey Graham: -15
❌ Pete Hegseth: -16
❌ RFK Jr.: -17
❌ Pam Bondi: -25
❌ Tucker Carlson: -27
❌ Ted Cruz: -6
❌ Benjamin Netanyahu: -22
❌ Kanye West: -42
❌ Jeffrey Epstein: -70

@Birdyword Yeah. I mean. I’m sorry but that thing is FUCKED.

@drewjacobs_ @johnarnold No. You are. And I don’t mean to be rude, my apologies. Just seems quite clear we have motivated reasoning here, that’s all. But everyone has their biases.

@TopButtonTrades @johnarnold I’m not allowed to give ups to someone who I thought broke down the issues well?

Let's talk about sports betting via prediction markets, which the Commodity Futures Trading Commission started allowing last year. The CFTC was created to regulate derivatives contracts in commodities that provide price transparency and facilitate risk transfer. These markets include some level of customer hedging and some speculation. The latter is necessary to facilitate the former and (usually) improves price signals. Beyond traditional commodities like oil, wheat, and copper, the CFTC sanctions contracts on stock indices, currencies, and interest rates. More recently, they've expanded to other markets in which businesses face risk they may want to hedge against like weather, freight costs, and emissions. A new innovation comes from prediction markets, where one can buy and sell contracts based on the probability of a specific event happening in the future. This allows someone, at least in theory, to hedge events like election outcomes, geopolitics, and corporate earnings. Before 2025, the CFTC explicitly rejected sports contracts. But last year, the CFTC allowed Kalshi to self-certify contracts on sports betting by not intervening. Soon, the prediction sites were filled with not just questions about Iran but outright sports betting like whether Purdue will cover a 7 point line against Texas on Thursday. This isn't hedging. This isn't price transparency. This is just gambling. Sports betting should not be regulated by the CFTC, but by the states, where all gambling decisions have been made since the founding of this country. States have long made different decisions on gambling based on what is right for them. Nevada and Utah share a long border but have made very different decisions on gambling: Nevada has legalized most forms while Utah has done the opposite. Voters and policymakers in those respective states have made those decisions. The CFTC has explicitly violated states' rights by implicitly legalizing online sports gambling across all 50 states. While most states have chosen a minimum age of 21 for gambling, the CFTC has lowered that to 18. While states have commissions to set guardrails on consumer protections, marketing, and state taxes, the CFTC has none of that. We can have a fulsome debate about what gambling is allowed and for whom. Reasonable people can have different views on the answer. I don't know what is optimal, but I do know that debate is best done in states. There is too much heterogeneity across America to have a one size fits all law. Nevada should be able to make different decisions than Utah. I am pleased that a pair of bipartisan bills have been introduced in the House and Senate return authority to the states. Kudos to Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) and Reps. Moore (R-UT) and Carbajal (D-CA). Online sports betting is not hedging. It's not an investment. It is gambling and should be regulated as such.

@VictorRocha1 They were quite successful and unlike many, they didn’t need a government to artificially protect and prop up their business.

What is Kalshi without sports betting?

@BATMongoose @adamscochran 0dte options are gambling too. Seems product structure does determine things eh

The paid for CFTC, which is controlled by a single man, allows Kalshi to offer national gambling to 18 year olds. They are doing 0 regulation. Product “structure” does not determine whether an activity is gambling. It is clear you have been financially incentivized by the PMs.

Interesting how none of them want to ban sports betting in betting apps that can front run customers and set their own odds though. But the gambling lobby that donates millions to Congress shows up, and now Congress cares about the more strictly regulated CFTC approved industry? Pretty brazen. Even if you don’t understand the structural nuance of why gambling and prediction markets are two different products - you’ve got to be raising an eyebrow at why our politicians only seem to care about one of them? How many members of Congress are getting that DraftKings money right now?

@Lopaka30 @adamscochran Just lie. Just believe whatever makes you feel good. Enjoy!

@adamscochran There is no structural nuance. PM's are betting exchanges, which have been along for a long time. Currently on Kalshi, Market Makers are limiting/banning winning bettors. PM's aren't different than sportsbetting, just unregulated and untaxed w/o the consumer protections

@depressivehacks @DustinGouker Dustin will have a well thought out answer for you that addresses your point, don’t you worry!

@DustinGouker Didn't some of the sportsbooks make their own prediction markets? Feels like they've given up completely on competing and are solely leaning on politicians for help fencing off access.

Senator from Utah, famously motivated by casino interests

@RealRogerGros @0xTyrael Lollllllllllllllllllll

@0xTyrael Actually will push them back to legal, regulated sports books.

Two weeks in a row now legislation has been introduced to ban certain types of prediction markets If these are banned, it won’t end prediction markets, it will just push all of the volume to unregulated exchanges Would rather see these taxed and regulated in a reasonable way instead of pushed out and putting consumers at higher risk

@Sureokgo @coffeebreak_YT A plague of evil lol, it’s just people trading derivative contracts. Yes, yes, my gasoline trades are EVIL.

@coffeebreak_YT Prediction markets have no value for society, it is a plague of evil.

"Casino lobby hard at work" says guy part of a prediction market lobby group.

@drewjacobs_ @johnarnold Thanks for talking your book bro, really valuable addition to the conversation.

@johnarnold Completely agree and nice analysis. Let the state gaming regulators do their jobs - they are excellent. Makes for a better user experience all around.