Roger Gros

@adamscochran @CFTC is a captured regulatory agency doing the bidding of the companies they are expected to regulate. All you have to do is read the comments of the corrupt chairman, @MichaelSelig

It really shows how much people don’t understand things they report on / hate on. Insiders were already blocked. This is a further expansion preventing related individuals from trading these markets all together rather than risk screening missing something. People don’t realize the CFTC is 1000x more strict than state gambling commissions and that Prediction Markets have far more rules.

@MikeIsaac Panic at the disco... Ahead of Congress. That's funny.

fascinating that Kalshi, a prediction market, is ahead of congress on blocking trading on insider info (an issue that has zero bi-partisan congressional support to tackle despite multiple bills proposed over the past few years)

@howardstutz @IGTNews @TheNVIndy That's a lot of jobs no matter where they are located.

In an internal email, @IGTNews tells employees it will reduce its workforce by 10%, laying off roughly 700 workers globally. IGT did not say how many employees in Nevada would be affected. CEO Hector Fernandez made the announcement, calling it a "structural alignment." @TheNVIndy

@KalshiLiquid I just posted I went into AZ and experienced that. But I also posted that a CA account bet in Las Vegas. Now that has to be illegal under the injunction.

@RealRogerGros Nope it’s based on what ID you signed up with. You could be across the country and it still won’t let you. Pain.

OK update on the Kalshi response to the Nevada injunction banning bets on the site. Drove about 10 miles into Arizona and tried to make a bet. Got the same error message that I get when I'm in Nevada. So Kalshi clearly not using geolocation to block bets, given my previous post.

@LuizaJarovsky Actually a very popular opinion. Anyone with a brain can see that it's actually betting and not "trading"...

🚨 Unpopular opinion: Polymarket and Kalshi are GAMBLING platforms and should be regulated as such.

@TheNotoriousSKi @KalshiLiquid So why aren't they using geofencing then?

@KalshiLiquid @RealRogerGros It’s been “many months” since they first said that & they definitely have the money.

It is now confirmed that Kalshi's response to the Nevada injunction is to only use registration data when banning bets by Nevada residents. Had a source confirm he could bet in Las Vegas with his California account. Does this abide by the terms of the injunction? Probably not

I don't know the terms of the injunction but I would imagine that regulators/courts would be upset to learn that Kalshi is still accepting bets within the borders of Nevada.

@TheNotoriousSKi @RealRogerGros To my knowledge it was never ordered that they start geofencing by state. It will likely be a thing soon but the “many months” doesn’t start until they are actually ordered to do so in order to remain operative. They wouldn’t spend tens of millions unless ordered. Hope it helps

@imBobbyKhan No apostrophe in Caesars. Journalism/Casinos 101

With news that Caesars might be sold to billionaire Tillman Fertitta owner of the Houston rockets , Golden Nugget casinos, landrys and the largest shareholder in Wynn casinos there’s a chance that we might get lucky and some of these casinos could return to independents. If I was Tillman I’d make Vici take a haircut, then sell all the other smaller casinos to independent owners and take the cash remodel Caesar’s and make that a destination. This way he owns the land, gets rid of all the garbage that has taken over and there’s no more monopoly. Steve Wynn built places where people couldn’t get enough of. You had to keep going back. MAKE VEGAS VEGAS AGAIN BobbyKhanforCongress.com

@joebrennanjr Sounded good! But consider the source. AC Press has been anti-gaming since the bill legalizing gambling in Atlantic City was passed in 1976.

What Harry leaves out is that on 4/27/2014, there was no sports betting in Atlantic City casinos, let alone microbetting Like many opponents, when they can't get the sports betting data to support their argument, they sub in casino & lottery stats instead Why let the (lack of) facts get in the way of a good story

@ratlpolicy Midas Touch? Quite a comedown from CBS.

This is why nobody on the political right buys the "legacy media is unbiased" claptrap. When a longtime CBS reporter gets a new job with a Resistance slop clickbait farm in less than 2 weeks, the truth is pretty damn obvious.

@Rothmus He's doing the right thing. Doesn't matter who contributes to him.

This Adam Schiff post is brought to you by Indian casinos. (Seriously though, $450,000 in campaign donations)

@capjack2000 @jeffedelstein Thanks for recognizing the role of Sen. Lesniak. He should be in the sports betting hall of fame, not Christie.

Jeff Edelstein (@jeffedelstein) had an interview with Chris Christie on the BoB podcast the other day.🤔 It reminded me, that after NCAA et al vs Christie was denied by SCOTUS the first time, Christie said the ruling was sacrosanct and that was the end of it.🤚 The reason it wasn't the end of it was Sen. Lesniak was threatening to choose the nuclear option. Essentially, decriminalizing sports betting in the state. Anyone could open a sportsbook anywhere in the state. The threat was enough for NJ to reword their attempted law and fight their way up the ladder again.🪜 Congress attempting to prohibit sports event contracts on prediction markets, should consider the nuclear option that will be pursued if they do so.🤯 Kalshi moves offshore. They already have the brand recognition. UIGEA can't stop crypto. Wire Act can't stop wagering if there is no known entity accepting the business of the wager. Kalshi would 2x, maybe 5x, their valuation in this scenario. No regulation. No oversight. No taxes. Polymarket would just stay how they've been operating prior to getting their DCM.🫴

@johnpalmer When a sports book does this, they are prohibited from marketing to problem gamblers. Not the case with these prediction markets. They are unregulated and illegal.

This is incredibly annoying. Getting several of these per day from Coinbase. I don't understand pushing this on users who trust coinbase to hold their stablecoin and crypto balances. This is essentially encouraging me to gamble. What does that say about the internal philosophy around money management? Can I trust the yield sources on USDC interest, can I trust internal risk management, etc. I really just don't get it, I love Coinbase and hold the stock too but this just feels like there are no consistent brand values underlying the strategy.

@m6drop Disagree. Nevada is leading the way in the battle against illegal gambling. Other states have followed and now Congress is acting. Only a matter of time before sports betting on Kalshi and its ilk will be banned.

VEGAS CAN FIGHT THIS ALL THEY WANT, BUT THIS IS A BATTLE THAT THEY ARE LOSING BADLY.

@johnarnold Excellent analysis.

Let's talk about sports betting via prediction markets, which the Commodity Futures Trading Commission started allowing last year. The CFTC was created to regulate derivatives contracts in commodities that provide price transparency and facilitate risk transfer. These markets include some level of customer hedging and some speculation. The latter is necessary to facilitate the former and (usually) improves price signals. Beyond traditional commodities like oil, wheat, and copper, the CFTC sanctions contracts on stock indices, currencies, and interest rates. More recently, they've expanded to other markets in which businesses face risk they may want to hedge against like weather, freight costs, and emissions. A new innovation comes from prediction markets, where one can buy and sell contracts based on the probability of a specific event happening in the future. This allows someone, at least in theory, to hedge events like election outcomes, geopolitics, and corporate earnings. Before 2025, the CFTC explicitly rejected sports contracts. But last year, the CFTC allowed Kalshi to self-certify contracts on sports betting by not intervening. Soon, the prediction sites were filled with not just questions about Iran but outright sports betting like whether Purdue will cover a 7 point line against Texas on Thursday. This isn't hedging. This isn't price transparency. This is just gambling. Sports betting should not be regulated by the CFTC, but by the states, where all gambling decisions have been made since the founding of this country. States have long made different decisions on gambling based on what is right for them. Nevada and Utah share a long border but have made very different decisions on gambling: Nevada has legalized most forms while Utah has done the opposite. Voters and policymakers in those respective states have made those decisions. The CFTC has explicitly violated states' rights by implicitly legalizing online sports gambling across all 50 states. While most states have chosen a minimum age of 21 for gambling, the CFTC has lowered that to 18. While states have commissions to set guardrails on consumer protections, marketing, and state taxes, the CFTC has none of that. We can have a fulsome debate about what gambling is allowed and for whom. Reasonable people can have different views on the answer. I don't know what is optimal, but I do know that debate is best done in states. There is too much heterogeneity across America to have a one size fits all law. Nevada should be able to make different decisions than Utah. I am pleased that a pair of bipartisan bills have been introduced in the House and Senate return authority to the states. Kudos to Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) and Reps. Moore (R-UT) and Carbajal (D-CA). Online sports betting is not hedging. It's not an investment. It is gambling and should be regulated as such.

@GivnerAriel How can they tell? They don't gather any kind of comprehensive information from the "traders" on their platforms. Paper tiger.

TL;DR - Polymarket just tightened up its rules in what IMO feels like a direct response to all the insider trading chatter, sports betting scrutiny, and regulatory pressure lately. They basically focused on three things: 1) Insider trading. No trading on stolen or confidential info. No trading on bad tips. And most importantly, if you can influence the outcome of the event, you’re out. Think employees, organizers, athletes, anyone close to the decision. You don’t get to bet on something you can control. 2) Fraud and shady trading tactics. This is all the usual stuff you’d expect. Spoofing, wash trading, fake volume, front running, coordinated bot activity. Anything that messes with price or makes the market look more active than it actually is. 3) General manipulation. Basically a catch-all so people can’t get cute and say “well it wasn’t technically spoofing.” Where it gets more serious is enforcement (about time). They’re monitoring activity in real time, using both internal tools and outside surveillance firms. For the US side of things, they’re also working with the National Futures Association, so it’s starting to look more like a traditional regulated market. The penalties aren’t light. They can ban you, freeze funds, take back profits, and potentially refer you to regulators like the CFTC. Super interested to see how this plays out, and if it actually makes a difference.

@0xTyrael Actually will push them back to legal, regulated sports books.

Two weeks in a row now legislation has been introduced to ban certain types of prediction markets If these are banned, it won’t end prediction markets, it will just push all of the volume to unregulated exchanges Would rather see these taxed and regulated in a reasonable way instead of pushed out and putting consumers at higher risk

@rhodeislandmike @ACEconPolicy Wrong.

@ACEconPolicy Atlantic City is unique, Beautiful properties but walk a few blocks away from any casino and it's the worst ghetto you've ever seen. I was there 3x for work, at Revel/Ocean and Borgata, and I would never ever visit those shitholes as a patron.

Atlantic City Casino Industry has experienced a two decade economic decline. Casino’s reached their high-water market in 2004 with the Borgata opening. Casino employment since then has been reduced by half. An industry that still produces 18,000 jobs remains to be respected, it just shouldn’t ever be expected yo become the economic engine it was once was.