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I got a ton of attention with that Ohio post! If you want to see something similar but longer about Iowa go read my first s*bstack article below!
open.substack.com/pub/drunkenpol…
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Drunken Politics
516 posts
Drunken Politics
@drunkelections
I'm not drunk, just sarcastic. Mostly elections, sometimes science and space. Engineer, bi, cardio junkie, BTFU.
Los Angeles County 参加日 Şubat 2026
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@AlpacaAurelius The way this is just the 2004-2008 shift map
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americans in the southeast of the US have a 20 year shorter life expectancy than those elsewhere
insane difference
why?
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It is funny that climate change has almost become a passé topic among the conventional wisdom factories given that CO2 is not only still increasing in the atmosphere but that rate is accelerating, with each year bringing a new record for most fossil fuels burnt ever in history
Benjamin Kunkel@kunktation
The return of climate politics in, like, 5 years is gonna be the mother of all returns of the repressed. People now asleep will wake up screaming
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@BlueCheese608 Nominating Ossoff in Atlanta would be peak so we’re probably not getting it
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Drunken Politics がリツイート
Atlanta is the only not bad idea on this list.
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
Axios: Democrats kick off 5-city fight to host 2028 convention Democratic Party officials this week are launching their in-person vetting of potential 2028 convention sites, with trips to the finalist cities — Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Denver and Philadelphia. axios.com/2026/04/19/dem…
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@LillianBelle2 I assume the “technically 12th” comes from the 2016 special?
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If Kotek wins the gubernatorial election, it will be the 11th (or technically 12th) election since an Republican has won.
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Politico: Battleground Republicans are starting to worry about the Senate
“Momentum has shifted to Democrats,” said Michigan-based GOP strategist Jason Roe.
“I wouldn’t say I feel warm and fuzzy about things right now,” said a Georgia Republican operative, granted anonymity to speak about party strategy, like others in this story.
politico.com/news/2026/04/1…
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Drunken Politics がリツイート
I find that people on here tend to overestimate how engaged the electorate is over the spring/summer of an election year. Even scandal-plauged candidates that make news cycles run respectably in polling lots of the time until the couch-sitters tune in and realize what's going on.
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@davidslosttt That first district could definitely flip
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@drunkelections you’d have to draw string districts from the northwest but there’s no point, all the seats are never flipping here
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I've had this in the back for a while or so, glad to finally get it out. More will be coming so I would appreciate the follow. I think we're in a serious drought of good election content, so I hope to play my part in fixing that issue
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I got a ton of attention with that Ohio post! If you want to see something similar but longer about Iowa go read my first s*bstack article below!
open.substack.com/pub/drunkenpol…
English
Drunken Politics がリツイート
I can’t believe people would seriously consider running a failed nominee again when we have fresh talent who are objectively better communicators
Acyn@Acyn
Ossoff: Remember, while you pay more for everything, the first family’s wealth is growing by billions of dollars because they are crooks, and everybody knows it.
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@xHaustedOfStats @casey9372 @HowlingTranny Also I’m terminally online and I don’t know SOS or Lt Gov… I highly doubt most people do!
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@casey9372 @HowlingTranny @drunkelections Not anywhere near Brown
30 DKs in the MC senator panel for Q1
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You're not allowed to say that the guy who lost Ohio by 3.5 in 2024 is in a tossup race in 2026 in an environment 8 points bluer on this app because idk woke or something
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@ElliscbIV I’m strongly of the belief that the median outcome in our D+6 environment is a 50-50 senate. I think that’s still technically a R-Senate tho thanks to Vance
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I agree that it’s underpriced, but a lot *is* going right for Dems right now. They’re favored to win at least 50 seats (AK is looking increasingly likely), and the best case scenario is brewing in TX.
Nicky🇺🇸@NickyScatz
D House / R Senate is criminally underpriced right now. Honestly, it’s the most likely outcome. Democrats need a lot to go right to flip the Senate.
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@mtmanjaro10 These people think Trump is immune to his unpopularity, which if ‘24 showed us anything that’s an INSANE assumption
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Imagine saying this when Trumps more unpopular than he was in 2018 I think D House and senate is very reasonable.
Nicky🇺🇸@NickyScatz
D House / R Senate is criminally underpriced right now. Honestly, it’s the most likely outcome. Democrats need a lot to go right to flip the Senate.
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If Tim Ryan couldn't beet JD fn Vance and the goat lost to the idiot Bernie Moreno, no I have 0 faith in Ohio against a normie republican, why i think its the least likely of nc/me/ak/tx/oh
Drunken Politics@drunkelections
You're not allowed to say that the guy who lost Ohio by 3.5 in 2024 is in a tossup race in 2026 in an environment 8 points bluer on this app because idk woke or something
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@CountyLineFcst Watch out! You're not supposed to say that Brown winning is not impossible.
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Ohio is def an uphill climb, but midterm cycles are much more favorable to Dems in Ohio. Look at the past two cycles: the shift from 2016 to 2018 was almost D+15. Even in 22, which was favorable for Rs, Ohio went 2 pts bluer than the ‘20 baseline. This has everything to do with *low propensity Trump voters staying home for the midterms*. I don’t think Brown has an easy path by any means, but he has a real shot.
Ellis Bates@ElliscbIV
I’m feeling very bearish about Brown’s prospects in OH. He’s polling much worse than he was at this same point in ’24, despite a bluer GB, a massive cash advantage, and strong name ID. I also wouldn’t count on the GB to bail him out, since the state is so inelastic.
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@SunBeltPolitics @Faj1791 @clusterbitch_ Any race where the rough numbers point to a D+3 to R+3 result should be called a tossup because elections are weird and weird things happen all of the time
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@SunBeltPolitics @Faj1791 @clusterbitch_ D+10 env is ~ a 12 point shift from '24. The nested implication there is that Husted is as good as a candidate as Brown.
I think it's a pure tossup, and I think you're wrong if you disagree!
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