ExAdTechQuant

444 posts

ExAdTechQuant

ExAdTechQuant

@Ad_Quant

not financial advice

Atherton, CA 가입일 Eylül 2025
181 팔로잉220 팔로워
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Hardik Shah
Hardik Shah@AIStockSavvy·
$APP | 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐋𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐧: Oppenheimer reiterates 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦, maintains 𝐏𝐓 𝐚𝐭 $𝟔𝟔𝟎 Analyst sees favorable structural demand tailwinds, though AXON awareness and adoption remain early.
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Alex Invests
Alex Invests@stockpickerspb·
If the market has you worried about your $APP stock, read this again. Know what you own and why you own it.
Alex Invests@stockpickerspb

$APP If you are interested in AppLovin, this overview from Adam Foroughi in September is well worth reading. There are a few eye-openers in here. "We exist for one reason and one reason alone: help an advertiser find a new customer, engage that customer, run an advertising campaign from top of funnel all the way to bottom of funnel, get a conversion, and price it on revenue. That is a really, really hard thing to do. With the modern era of neural nets, you can do it much better than you could have done it years ago. In the world today, the largest platform that does this is Meta. There is not a second. We're the second. We've been able to scale much bigger than I think a lot of people realized when they looked at our stock over the last few years until we put out some disclosures in Q1 around the fact that in Q1 we were over $11 billion of gross ad spend. People always look at our revenue and don't realize that the revenue is the net after we paid publishers. In terms of gross, and obviously we've grown quite substantially since we put out that disclosure, that's the equivalent of Pinterest, Snap, and Twitter total revenues on our platform already. What's also really interesting about it is that we've disclosed that we had hundreds of e-commerce advertisers at the time, and our last disclosure on gaming customers was in the hundreds. You've got a platform that might have 1,500 advertisers with spend at that level. Never happened before. I don't know of another $200 billion almost company that hasn't actually launched their product yet. What gets us really excited internally is that we have this product that's exceptionally high value for the customers that we have. We haven't launched it broadly, so we haven't given most of the companies in the world the opportunity to tap into its excellence, this recommendation model that we built. We're on the cusp of doing that. As we go forward, the way we look at the business in the future is we took 13 years perfecting a product in a niche market, the gaming market. Turned out it was economically a pretty big market. Broadly speaking, in economic terms, the gaming dollar spent versus the total TAM of the economy is not that big. Now we're about to tap into the whole world. If we can help every type of business, top of funnel to bottom of funnel, and price on revenue, not only are we going to be a really great return for our shareholders, we're going to help their economies expand. We're going to create millions of jobs. That gets us really excited internally."

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Hataf Capital
Hataf Capital@hataf_capital·
AppLovin $APP: The Cash Machine Wall Street Is Too Stupid To Price Correctly Every year, like clockwork, the market finds a new reason to piss its pants. In 2022, it was the Fed, in 2024 it was the Yen carry trade, in 2025, it was tariffs. Now, the geniuses on the Street are talking about "AI disruption" killing AppLovin. It’s the same tired-ass cycle of fear that creates the kind of asymmetric entry points that make careers. While the "experts" are busy hand-wringing over macro headlines and geopolitical noise in the Middle East, they’re missing a fundamental point: The Margins Are Absolute Insanity Let’s look at the Q4 2025 numbers, because frankly, they’re solid for anyone who actually understands a balance sheet. Revenue grew 66% YoY. That’s fine, but look at the efficiency. An 84% EBITDA margin and a 79% Free Cash Flow (FCF) margin. or every $100 that walks through the door, $80 goes straight into the bank as cold, hard cash. There are SaaS companies out there trading at 20x revenue that would sell their own mothers for a 30% FCF margin. AppLovin is doing 79%. it’s a statistical anomaly in the tech sector. If they maintain even a fraction of this efficiency while expanding, we’re looking at the most undervalued FCF-yield play in the U.S. market. Period. AXON 2.0: Beyond the Gaming Sandbox The bear case usually boils down to: "They’re a one-trick pony for mobile games." That’s total bullshit. The recent Morgan Stanley TMT conference confirmed what anyone paying attention already knew AXON 2.0 is moving into e-commerce. By partnering with Stagwell, they’re getting a firehose of enterprise-grade data to feed the engine. AXON is already the gold standard for mobile ad-tech performance. Applying that same AI-driven logic to the broader e-commerce niche is a massive strategic pivot that the market is currently pricing at zero. APP has a legitimate shot at becoming the third pillar of digital advertising, right behind Meta and Google. Calling it a "gaming company" in 2026 is like calling Amazon a "bookstore" in 2005. It’s ignorant.
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Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
$APP down big on the same headline from earlier this year. Managements answer was that the more players in the market the better. It gives $APP more data, making their algorithm better. $META stepping into the market is not breaking news. Market tends to have extremely short memory lately.
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Jason
Jason@Jasonsmys·
Looks like $APP ramping up hiring for the social media app in creation?
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ExAdTechQuant
ExAdTechQuant@Ad_Quant·
$APP is up 30% from this time last year. Tourists, the lot of ya.
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ExAdTechQuant
ExAdTechQuant@Ad_Quant·
Love all the doubt on $APP . Proves most of you don’t know shit about mobile advertising. Adam going to put that Anaconda on your heads in early May. @Nietschecapital @dogballcapital wake up mates
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Eric Seufert
Eric Seufert@eric_seufert·
AppLovin launches AI-enabled video creative generation AppLovin is launching AI-enabled video generation to optimize eCommerce ads for in-game environments. By repurposing assets through generative models, the platform addresses the performance gap between social media creatives and full-screen mobile placements. This rollout highlights how proprietary performance data and flexible advertiser bases enable rapid platform-level innovation. mobiledevmemo.com/applovin-launc…
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Roanoke Cap
Roanoke Cap@roanokecap·
@Ad_Quant @bombayquant @WisemanCap If they could’ve built applovin they would’ve built applovin. Cloudx is the latest in a series of attempts to build something with a kernel of potential that gets acquired.
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Kaushik
Kaushik@WisemanCap·
$TTD Buy the weakness - Benchmark - We are buyers of TDD shares on related weakness - Suspects Publicis and Omnicom are desiring to bring attention to TTD issues with transparency on fees "to divert from their own historically opaque pricing and margin pools that are increasingly under the microscope..."
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ExAdTechQuant
ExAdTechQuant@Ad_Quant·
@bombayquant @WisemanCap CloudX is not ex applovin founders mate. These were acquihires, and let’s be very clear that Max and MoPub were dog shit before AppLovin took them over
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PR
PR@bombayquant·
@WisemanCap Naah, $APP and $META much better at this levels. Penetration is very deep for them. Very unlikely $TTD will have a growth cycle like that. Now with CloudX (ex- App Lovin Founders) ROAS incremental revenue will be distinguished as to where the source channel is from.
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Matheus Lonning
Matheus Lonning@mathlonning·
I’d think today’s software $IGV sell off is related to anthropic software that just came out. Wouldn’t call it irrational, it’s just that terminal values are now being questioned. I still believe ultimately, software will have plenty of winners. Though in the short term it is hard to fight the market. I continue to be bullish $RBRK $APP $RDDT
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
@mathlonning IMO, $APP and $RDDT trade like software stocks but they shouldn’t… much different platforms and business models than companies like $TEAM $HUBS $CRM $WIX $DUOL $GTLB etc.
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ExAdTechQuant
ExAdTechQuant@Ad_Quant·
@_DomDav @cloudx Good read @Nietschecapital @dogballcapital doesn’t seem like cloudX value prop is providing much value to publishers. Smoke and mirrors for a founding crew that’s done this same bit 3 times now. Nothing new or innovative just another mediation play 😂
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Dom Davies
Dom Davies@_DomDav·
Nah, few reasons: 1) latency = imp loss, bad signal, lower return on buy side, in turn impact on sell side. Bad for everyone. 2) less dense auctions w/ fewer bidders is bad for publishers. 3) manually prioritizing who can buy inventory is old tech and methodology. Not a single publisher ever made more money running a waterfall vs a bidder setup. Long term or short term. Publishers do try to game the auctions by running a multi ad unit setup with ad units with bid floors, but the bidders have caught on and it’s not really a substantial or sustainable way to catch an edge anymore. Publishers can do this on any mediation tho. I do agree that ads are getting long, but every network has 60+ second ads. This doesn’t solve systemically. You could make the case that “if I show my users less relevant or engaging ads, they will stick around longer,” but that’s a severely oversimplified and broken way of thinking. Lastly, the post accuses mediations of favoring their demand if they run a network. A little known fact is that bidders reserve the right to audit the auctions, which they do. If $META, $GOOG, $U, $APPS, $PUBM, or $MOBVF ever caught a slight possibility of an unfair or biased auction, the market would know.
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CloudX
CloudX@cloudx·
Most monetization platforms are designed to facilitate a single auction per impression opportunity. This simplicity comes at a cost. For one, a race to the bottom in ad quality and a subsequent hit to publisher retention. With CloudX, publishers are able to set up multiple auction rounds per impression opportunity, controlling who competes in each round and under what terms, while still preserving a highest bid wins dynamic within each round. For publishers, this enables increased pricing power and the ability to work more flexibly with demand partners. Read our latest blog post at the link below, and get in touch if you'd like to learn more: hello@cloudx.io cloudx.ai/posts/auction-…
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
$APP looking very good in the most recent @northbeam data... especially the ROAS number I have $APP doing at least $6.9B of ebitda in CY2026 (vs sell side at $6.7B)... knowing this number could easily be over $7.0B+ which would take approx $8.35B+ revs (sell side is at $8.03B) with 84% ebitda margins (sell side is at 83.9%) Even if we split the difference and say $6.8B ebitda, it means $APP is currently trading at 21x CY2026 ev/ebitda with ebitda growing at least 50% this year and perhaps another 40% next year. $APP is too cheap at these prices. NFA. DYOR. *I own $APP personally and so does @FirstWaveFund
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Praful Mehta
Praful Mehta@mehtapraful123·
While macro uncertainty continues, focus on fundamentals. $APP's biz model delivers in any environment. Time spent gaming (and related purchases) likely increases if travel reduces. $APP's PE, after adjusting for its amazing FCF generation (see embedded note) and growth is at 0.6x today vs. $Meta at 3.1x, $GOOG at 3.9x and $ZETA at 1.1x. I've been buying!
Praful Mehta tweet media
Praful Mehta@mehtapraful123

What is $APP fair value? Here is a simple analysis using PE multiples to highlight that $APP is the CHEAPEST in its sector and even if it conservatively trades at a sector multiple, it should be a $700 stock. The analysis adjusts PE multiples for FCF conversion and growth rates.

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Olivia Kory
Olivia Kory@oliviaakory·
Cool stat. % of spend going to Applovin by month (M) is increasing relative to advertisers’ first full month on the channel. % of spend defined based on total budget across App + Meta Presenting this and more at the Operators event on Wednesday.
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Nietzsche F. Capital
Nietzsche F. Capital@Nietschecapital·
$app theres been a lot of recent chatter on X of me deserting the $app cult. I would like to let you guys know I was just on a podcast talking $app only. youtube.com/watch?v=q5ji7q…
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