Fibonacci Investing⚡️
23.3K posts
Fibonacci Investing⚡️
@FibonacciInves1
Macro Investing...done right. Only personal opinions....not selling anything. Not financial advice.
가입일 Haziran 2022
430 팔로잉15.3K 팔로워
@DudeWhoInvests Bonds shall return. Look at the DXY
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Makes LITERALLY ZERO sense. GOLD the hedge for geopolitical instability is crashing in the face of geopolitical instability. Can’t make this up.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Spot gold extends its selloff to -$400/oz on the day, now trading at $4,500/oz for the first time since February 2nd.
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@finnafinance Hard to tell. Housing will decide midterms in my opinion. Lots of pressure to bring down rates here.
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@FibonacciInves1 I think both come down over the medium term. Which do you believe happens first?
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We have reached the point where the 10Y at just over 4% is a drag on housing.
Rates must come down or prices will be next. Pricing is effectively negative when you consider incentives.
cnbc.com/2026/03/19/jan…
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Gold down, bonds up.
Dr. Copper down.
Lots of signals here.
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@TJTheWheelDeal Every day the strait is closed the market will be down generally.
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Grok: tell me like I’m 12 years old why the stocks are down today.
These stupid ass posts get like 100k views lol
Please, for the love of what is still good in the world, stop!
If you’ve been in the markets for at least a month, you know that stocks go up, down and sideways.
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@RFitz8990 @MichaelPBento @FibonacciInves1 Seriously. I can’t imagine what would happen to the stock market, housing market, debt markets, unemployment, etc with a 10Y at 8 percent.
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Scary times on the 10Y today.
Still think its a fake out like we've seen in the past.
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@vernon_sview @StealthQE4 High employment will mean flight to safety and buying US Treasuries. They usually sell gold first.
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@FibonacciInves1 @StealthQE4 Global slowdown or recession =selling of USTreasuries. The liquidity has to come from somewhere to pay for the economic damage due to the oil spike.
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The Fed futures have all but given up on a June Fed rate cut.
80% chance now they pause. Even July is at 64% for a pause.
Oil near $100 will do this every time.
Say goodnight to the housing market in the process. There will be no spring selling season 💀
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@SumOfAllGainz All good, I buy a ton of TLT when we get into the 86 range. The macro looks fine. Been busy with a startup recently (lots of fun). Housing is cracking, consumer, growth. All very GFC meets dot com.
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@FibonacciInves1 Just checking on you. How's that $TLT feeling? No rate cuts priced in for 2026 but it does feel like it will get so bad we will have an emergency rate cut at some point. We are not there yet and I'm sure Powell is willing to let Trump sit in it for as long as possible.
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$TLT
One last chance before lift-off.
Longest base in history...
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@GuyTalksFinance You know if you miss the worse 10 bad days if the market you would have like 4X returns. Look at the studies.
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Friend of mine is worried about the stock market crashing and is considering selling all of his stocks.
Seems like a good time to remind everyone that despite all of the negative headlines:
The S&P 500 is only down -3% year to date. This is the time to be buying not selling.
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Funny, you could built the entire thing now for pennies on the dollar with AI if he just waited for AI to come first.
Grok@grok
Meta's Reality Labs racked up ~$80B in cumulative losses (mostly operating costs) since 2021 on: - Quest VR/AR hardware development & manufacturing - Horizon Worlds platform & content - 10k+ engineers, studios, custom chips - Data centers, acquisitions, R&D Revenue from it all: ~$2B. Now pivoting hard to AI/mobile—VR Horizon Worlds shuts June 15.
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@TQuestMind @MacroSloan2929 I'm actually surprised at the previous comment. There's very few people that think bonds wouldn't perform in a recession. Most think we'll avoid a recession and soft land by printing. But the correlation is already there during every growth hiccup -> flight to quality trade.
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@MacroSloan2929 @FibonacciInves1 And you think that this time is different where USD debt is still the world reserve currency system?
The act of buying US debt was the action that the fed took to save the global monetary system.
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Well articulated explanation of why an oil spike isn't bad for bonds.
Henrik Zeberg@HenrikZeberg
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary - it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil Prices. "The Income Effect" is the reason.
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@MacroSloan2929 Treasuries delivered positive returns in all eight postwar recessions except the 1973–75 stagflation outlier (when inflation exploded and yields rose instead). Median 10-year yield drop across the last eight recessions: ~1.14%.
Bonds are HIGHLY correlated to the 10Y.
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@FibonacciInves1 In 2020 the fed started buying long duration in addition to MBS.
If the fed doesn't intervene, the back end has no reason to appreciate. The belly does!
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@AntilesSeth @1realityenjoyer @jasongoepfert @sentimentrader It'll get revised to negative. Just like in the GFC. Never use GDP as metric. Never.
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The bond market is getting twitchy.
Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets.
h/t @sentimentrader
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@MacroSloan2929 Bonds do the BEST in recessions. They are a risk-off trade. The deficit skyrocketed in 2020 and bonds went to the moon. Same in 2008. Larger deficits don't automatically mean bad for bonds. High unemployment is strongly correlated with bonds going to them moon.
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@FibonacciInves1 Recession >>> lower tax revenue >>> same or more spending = larger deficits
Larger deficits drive long term rates up, especially for bonds
Short to intermediate (2 to 5 yr-ish) rates drop to reflect low or no growth, but 30s dont rally without intervention
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@GoodTexture CPI is always backwards looking and irrelevant.
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