Matthew Kheyfets

@nypost Ok but...are we going to ignore that 3/4 of Hispanic Trump voters mean Rs would only get 34% of the Hispanic vote...which is not historically bad but it would be 25% worse than 2024.

Democrats failing to win over Latino voters souring on Trump: poll trib.al/C05vU80

@quin_quinlan @RealSKeshel No, it doesn't. It just means they had a competitive primary for the first time in a while.

@MathewKheyfets @RealSKeshel Dems got more turnout in this years primary in those counties than they did in 2024. So yeah even worse for republics

One of Talarico’s biggest problems is that the 2018 Senate clunker (Cruz +2.6%) happened. O’Rourke had a lot more going for him than Talarico does, was a sitting US Rep, and worked his ass off. While he was sitting in suburbia picking off Abbott voters, Cruz was in Pampa trying to run up the score and down in Laredo trying to go for the jugular when he should have just lined up in a goal line set and hit the GOP strongholds, and won by about 7. There’s no sneaking up this time, and now the Latino vote is much stronger for the GOP after 8 years to shift around - then you have all the Florida style +1s from other states moving to Texas.

@earlyvotedata This would be pretty bad nationally. That would be a 20% slide net with Hispanics. Nationally, that's 2% in the popular vote

Florida is going to be Republican for a very, very long time with numbers like that from Latino voters.

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@quin_quinlan @RealSKeshel 2024 is presidential primary elections. Not comparable really.

@MathewKheyfets @RealSKeshel 2024 the primary gap was much closer just from looking at primary results from 2024 to 2026. Republicans will get slaughtered in South Texas because Trump has been a traitor to his base.

@jrl_josh @RealSKeshel Steve Kornacki mentioned this on his stream btw

@RealSKeshel Ahh that’s a good point! Somebody mentioned something along those lines earlier that people in those areas tend to vote in Dem primaries, so it’s good to hear an explanation of why.

Paxton margins in El Paso, Hidalgo, Harris, and most of the RGV are outrunning his overall statewide margin and are highly suggestive a MAGA candidate retains high Latino support in line with trends developing over the past 6 years.

@RealSKeshel Well, there is the issue that they will likely swing back to Dems. I just don't agree with Barnes that we are going to swing all the way back to the Obama days

@quin_quinlan @RealSKeshel Right so the same thing happened in 2020 and 2024...many of them still vote down ballot primaries as Dems. But in general elections they are more R than 2016 days. Barnes doesn't have that much proof, only critisizms

@RealSKeshel Go look at the primary election numbers. Starr county for example a county Trump won in 2024. Got over 6,000 Democrat votes in this primary. Republicans less than 1,000 and. Starr only 90 votes in the runoff that’s one county ill list others hold on

@MarsCanals @VoteHub @ZacharyDonnini I don't agree with Texas. Not without another presidential election to show it

@MathewKheyfets @VoteHub @ZacharyDonnini No, Texas and Florida are now both as red as NY and NJ are blue. Both states have had a massive influx of residents since 2020, and unlike Georgia and North Carolina, they have social policies that don't appeal to leftists. Dems are stuck wishcasting based on 2018 demographics

Can James Talarico actually win Texas? After Ken Paxton’s decisive runoff win, VoteHub’s 2026 forecast moved TX-SEN from Tilt R to Tossup. @ZacharyDonnini breaks down why Texas is competitive, and what it would take for Democrats to make history. votehub.com/2026/05/27/can…

@TonerousHyus @26thAndGuad Just saw; NYT called it. Also, from your post, there were an additional almost 115,000 ballots. So not nothing but not 200,000. Bo has won.

@TonerousHyus @26thAndGuad The gap narrowed but I think it's clear that whatever is left will not net him the 16,000 or so necessary votes

Stellar endorsement for the guy who appears poised to upset yet another Texas incumbent. Harris county came through for Bo and he’s winning it by about 16% margins. Given it’s the largest county and all

@MarsCanals @VoteHub @ZacharyDonnini It's clear that those margins were due to Dems in cities didn't turnout as much and then swing voters swung more for Trump there. But those states are more Dem than Texas is R at the moment. NJ had a moment, I suspect it will be back to double digits

@MathewKheyfets @VoteHub @ZacharyDonnini Trump won TX by more than Harris won NY. Significantly more than Harris won NJ. I would never in a million years call the the Senate races in either of those states a "toss up". They are obviously at least lean left just like Texas is AT LEAST lean right.

@evan_doji @willchamberlain And when he ran the far more liberal campaign in an R+3 environment, he lost by 10.9% which is bit weak for R+3, but is regular for Texas. Paxton did not really underperform too much in either 2018 or 2022, max of like 2%. 2026 can be different but too early to tell otherwise.

@evan_doji @willchamberlain Not quite. In 2018, the environment was D+8 but Beto had tons of cash and portrayed himself as a moderate v Cruz. Cruz was and is still not as well liked. By 2022, Beto had ran for 2020 Dem primaries and went full liberal mode. He then decided let me run against Abbot for Gov...

Talarico is going to lose by 5+. Beto was far more charismatic and had said far less dumb things, and he only got within two. Texas got MORE red in the last eight years. Trump won Texas by almost 14 points. Even if it's a blue wave year that's too much.

@hypocane @OSpencer49 @TonerousHyus Yes but again, Talarico MAY benefit with 87% of the electorate...crockett maybe 15% at most?

@MathewKheyfets @OSpencer49 @TonerousHyus It's not so much the black margin but black turnout.

Both Talarico AND Paxton will energize Texan Rs. The precise opposite of what every media held told you

@TonerousHyus All major news outlets show est vote total of 1.5m. there should be another 200,000 votes unless down ballot races lost somehow 1/8 of the vote

@TonerousHyus I think ddhq is incorrect. They've been wrong before on this.

@TonerousHyus There are roughly 1.5-1.6m votes expected. I'm not sure why this isn't correct?

@MathewKheyfets It’s not correct

@TonerousHyus Also shows 21% left

@TonerousHyus NBC and the AP say otherwise. NYT says only 7% left?