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America: The Unseen Hurdle in India’s Path to Power
When we think of obstacles to India’s rise as a developed nation by 2047 and as a global superpower today, the usual names—Pakistan and China—dominate the discourse. Yet, the subtler and more consequential hurdle has often been the United States, not through open hostility, but by constraining India’s strategic autonomy and spoiling its relations with natural partners.
Let me tell you why I think so.
Deteriorating relations with friendly countries from Afghanistan to Bangladesh to Russia to Iran
1. India–Iran Relations: From Trusted Ally to Strategic Dilemma
• Once a reliable partner: Iran was not just a cultural and civilizational ally but also India’s third-largest crude supplier, offering cheaper and flexible energy options.
• Gateway to Central Asia: Iran was the golden gate to Central Asia and Eurasia. With Pakistan blocking land access, Iran was India’s natural corridor for trade expansion.
• Chabahar Port Potential: The Chabahar project could have been India’s answer to China’s Gwadar Port, enabling India to project influence in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the Middle East. It was also a strategic lever to balance China’s growing footprint.
But then United states entry and situation went south
• America’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA (2018) and the imposition of CAATSA sanctions forced India to halt Iranian crude imports.
• Bilateral trade declined, energy cooperation collapsed, and strategic projects like rail and road networks linked to Chabahar stalled.
• China’s Gain: Into this vacuum stepped Beijing, signing a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement with Iran in 2021, securing energy supplies and infrastructure projects that India once had its eyes on.
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