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Chart "shows what 'share' of the market's return has come from multiple expansion. That share is falling while the share from earnings and dividends is rising. That's painful over the short-term but healthy over the long-term."
@TimmerFidelity

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40 리트윗함

Absolutely amazing chart from the latest drop
So much has changed in 25 years

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.@hussmanjp
New market comment is up on the website! 😀🐳 Equilibrium and the Dentist in Poughkeepsie
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@grok @malawalla9 @solitary_grey_ @DailyMail Have any studies reviewed Ivermectin as a cancer treatment?
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Anti-worm drugs, or anthelmintics, treat parasitic worm infections (helminths like roundworms, tapeworms, flukes). Examples include modern ones like albendazole or praziquantel for schistosomiasis (bilharzia).
In the 1950 Soviet paper, they cite Myracyl D (an early 1930s drug for bilharzia) and guanine analogs, noting these also hit tumor cells in labs due to shared traits like anaerobic metabolism and high glycogen. It's about observed biochemical parallels, not equating cancer to parasites.
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CIA faces furious backlash after hidden document with potential cure for cancer is declassified trib.al/cKVJB6i


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@ISABELNET_SA @DeutscheBank gemini says correlation is .75 so mebbe more than limited...
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🇺🇸 Inflation
Spikes in oil prices typically push up headline inflation, but the effect on inflation expectations, especially at longer horizons, is limited and usually short-lived. Energy shocks often fade faster than people expect
👉 isabelnet.com/?s=inflation
@DeutscheBank #oil

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Few people know how popular @openclaw is in China.
Two scenes that went viral in Chinese social medias this week:
👵 Thousands of elderly people lined up so Tencent engineers could help them install it.
🎓 A Beijing school deploying AI agents for every student.
From grandparents to students.
When a technology reaches both generations at once, it stops being hype and becomes infrastructure.


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Brent forward curve in backwardation through 2028
12-month spread widened $16.33 (335%) & 6-month widened $14.14 (620%)
Front-month price rose $20.21 (28%) from $72.48 to $92.29 week ending March 6
#energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket

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@dailychartbook @grok what are the primary drivers to this reacceleration in growth?
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@pulte I remember when this, now looked upon as a lie, was a BOOM. Do you? I’m sure you do. You were part of this elation. $fnma $fmcc @realDonaldTrump @SecScottBessent



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@RyanDetrick Ryan, what do you make of Truflation's take on inflation?
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@alexolegimas @mattyglesias @grok summarize Alex’s response to Citrini’s piece an Ai related worker displacement
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I formally modeled and worked out what conditions you need for what the essay describes to actually happen. You need fairly implausible conditions on both what happens to investment and preferences. Plus no fiscal policy at all. Here is the essay write up, with all the math in a linked technical note. aleximas.substack.com/p/will-advance…
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@C_Barraud Also from 2028: “applications to plumbing schools reach record high.”
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🌎 Citrini Research just dropped a provocative thesis:
⚠ We’re heading toward a “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” ⚠
➡ The core idea?
AI is making intelligence abundant — and the global economy isn’t built for that.
Here’s the breakdown 👇
1/🧠 AI agents are removing friction everywhere.
*By 2026–27:
• Autonomous AI handles shopping, taxes, insurance, legal work
• Commerce shifts to automated optimization
• Industries built on complexity & information asymmetry collapse
2/💼 White-collar displacement accelerates.
AI replaces knowledge work → Displaced professionals move down the wage ladder → Labor supply rises → Wages compress across sectors.
*This spreads beyond tech.
3/🏢 SaaS & private credit are exposed.
Many leveraged software deals assumed perpetual growth.
But AI reduces demand for service-heavy SaaS.
*Results:
• Downgrades
• Defaults
• Risk repricing
4/🏠 Households weaken quietly.
Prime borrowers still pay mortgages…
But they’re tapping savings & credit.
Income compression → Spending slows → Debt-to-income rises.
5/ 🔁 A negative loop forms:
AI → layoffs → lower income → weaker demand → more automation → repeat.
At the same time:
Income stress → tighter credit → weaker wealth effect → slower economy.
6/ 🏛 Governments face structural strain.
Tax systems rely on labor income.
AI shifts income toward capital & compute.
Less payroll tax.
More pressure on safety nets.
⚠ The big idea:
For 200 years, human intelligence was scarce.
Now it isn’t. The report argues we’re entering a painful repricing as “intelligence premium” unwinds. Not necessarily collapse — but transition.
Agree or not, the thesis is clear:
AI isn’t just a tech cycle.
It’s a macroeconomic restructuring event.
Worth thinking about.
*Link: citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic


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