Rohan J

Most Bitcoin investors fail because they only look at charts. I run a top-down model that looks at the full picture: 
Macro. Liquidity. On-chain. Valuation. Trend. Here’s this week’s opportunity and breakdown ↓

@MilkRoad @KevinWSHPod @RaoulGMI Agree. People also are being pushed into crypto. Debt keeps rising, currencies keep debasing, and real returns in traditional assets get compressed. Crypto sits on the other side of that. Short term it trades like a risk asset. Long term it’s a response to the system itself.

Is it realistic to put your hopes in crypto? Raoul Pal: "It's not realistic, but it's the only answer people can find." "We can't change the political system. Can't stop currency debasement." Crypto is the lifeboat. Pod: @KevinWSHPod Guest: @RaoulGMI

Japan is so important. Higher JGB yields tighten global liquidity. Japanese capital stops flowing out and starts coming home. That removes a key source of cheap funding for global assets. Short term: pressure on equities and crypto. Long term: if it breaks something, policy responds and liquidity comes back.

🚨WARNING JAPANESE BONDS ARE HITTING THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN OVER 20 YEARS

@Cointelegraph Agree, $BTC is now a function of capital flows. Short term still driven by plumbing. War, rates, and liquidity keep it choppy. Long term is locked. Debt and debasement expand liquidity, and that’s what drives BTC higher

🔥 SAYLOR: "Bitcoin has won."

@KobeissiLetter Labour is weakening under tight conditions. War-driven inflation keeps rates elevated, which delays the policy response. Short term risk stays capped. When the labour cracks force easing, liquidity expands and BTC and equities move.

The US economy is going through a hiring recession: The number of hires as a % of total employment fell -0.3 percentage points in February, to 3.1%, in-line with the 2020 pandemic low. This is also the lowest level since January 2011, and just 0.3 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis low of 2.8%. At the same time, the private hiring rate declined -0.4 percentage points to 3.3%, the lowest since February 2010. Back then, the US unemployment rate stood at 9.7%, more than double the current 4.4%. Furthermore, the quits rate decreased -0.1 percentage point in February, to 1.9%, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic. The US job market is in bad shape.

@EXM7777 From an investment lens, this is classic funnel strategy. Free at the edge, monetise at scale. Gemma drives adoption and locks in developers. Gemini captures the high-value workloads. Distribution first, revenue later. Winning.

Google is running a two-track AI strategy that nobody's framing correctly... track 1: Gemini (closed, paid, cloud-only) track 2: Gemma (open, free, runs anywhere) both built from the same research, Gemma 4 literally uses Gemini 3's architecture here's the play: Gemini captures enterprise revenue while Gemma captures the entire open-source ecosystem developers build on Gemma, get locked into Google's toolchain (AI Studio, Edge Gallery, Firebase, Vertex), and the ones who outgrow local hardware graduate to Gemini Apple did this with Swift... give away the language, sell the hardware and services Google is giving away the intelligence the monetization layer is everything around it... compute, hosting, API calls, and the developer ecosystem that defaults to Google when they need to scale gg

@RoundtableSpace I work in investment, tech sector, imo accounting gets hit first. It’s rule-based so it’s easy to automate reporting, compliance, reconciliation. The value shifts to accounting strategy, structuring, and judgment.

Which industry do you think Claude will wipe out with their next feature?

@karpathy The key unlock here is legibility at scale and the ability to interpret it. AI expands the number of actors who can do that and increases complexity in decision making. Systems get more transparent and more chaotic at the same time.

Something I've been thinking about - I am bullish on people (empowered by AI) increasing the visibility, legibility and accountability of their governments. Historically, it is the governments that act to make society legible (e.g. "Seeing like a state" is the common reference), but with AI, society can dramatically improve its ability to do this in reverse. Government accountability has not been constrained by access (the various branches of government publish an enormous amount of data), it has been constrained by intelligence - the ability to process a lot of raw data, combine it with domain expertise and derive insights. As an example, the 4000-page omnibus bill is "transparent" in principle and in a legal sense, but certainly not in a practical sense for most people. There's a lot more like it: laws, spending bills, federal budgets, freedom of information act responses, lobbying disclosures... Only a few highly trained professionals (investigative journalists) could historically process this information. This bottleneck might dissolve - not only are the professionals further empowered, but a lot more people can participate. Some examples to be precise: Detailed accounting of spending and budgets, diff tracking of legislation, individual voting trends w.r.t. stated positions or speeches, lobbying and influence (e.g. graph of lobbyist -> firm -> client -> legislator -> committee -> vote -> regulation), procurement and contracting, regulatory capture warning lights, judicial and legal patterns, campaign finance... Local governments might be even more interesting because the governed population is smaller so there is less national coverage: city council meetings, decisions around zoning, policing, schools, utilities... Certainly, the same tools can easily cut the other way and it's worth being very mindful of that, but I lean optimistic overall that added participation, transparency and accountability will improve democratic, free societies. (the quoted tweet is half-ish related, but inspired me to post some recent thoughts)

@RoundtableSpace From a market perspective, this is the shift: Free/cheap access drives adoption, then pricing comes when dependency is built. This is the transition from subsidised growth to monetisation. Happens in every platform cycle.

ANTHROPIC JUST KILLED THE CHEAPEST WAY TO RUN OPENCLAW ON CLAUDE. The $200/month subscription arbitrage is over, and the whole open source Claude ecosystem just got a lot more expensive overnight. x.com/bcherny/status…

@seth_fin @grok Short-term rallies come from plumbing easing. Positioning resets, flows pick up. The war means those aren’t supportive right now so choppy price continues. And we’re not at the long-term phase yet where debt and debasement drive liquidity expansion.

What if? @Grok is this #Bitcoin red line possible?

@misterrcrypto A proper breakout needs liquidity, which isn’t ther e yet. War keeps oil elevated, real rates high, and flows constrained. Big picture, BTC remains driven by debasement and liquidity expansion.

$BTC is about to break out here. Almost no one is ready for it.

@cryptorover Bottoms are only obvious in hindsight. In real time you can only build through uncertainty. Liquidity and debasement drive the next leg up. That’s when we break out of this range-based action.

Bitcoin "Electrical Cost" has dropped below $50,000. The bottom ceiling is getting lower.

@coinbureau Another day, another proof point that if you’re not a “yes man” who bends over backwards for Trump, you are let go.

🔥JUST NOW: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth reportedly pushed out Army Chief Gen. Randy George over alleged “insecurity and paranoia” about being replaced. Sources say Hegseth has been targeting officials seen as loyal to Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, who is viewed as a leading contender for his role.

@nicrypto People in western countries are fed so much propaganda about competitor countries being hell holes and dictatorships. Only when you consume different media or visit those countries do you realise how much of a lie it is.

@CryptoTony__ Gradual accumulation is the game for now. BTC isn’t moving much because the system is still constrained. War keeps energy elevated, which feeds inflation and locks liquidity. Long term, debt and debasement force expansion, and that’s when BTC breaks higher.

$BTC / $USD - Update Playing out very well so far. Who got in ?

@cyrilXBT BTC stuck in range because the plumbing is tight. War pushes oil higher, drains liquidity, and keeps real rates elevated. That stalls flows. Long term is simple. Debt forces currency debasement, liquidity expands, capital moves, BTC reprices.

$BTC Holding around $66,650 as price sits on the macro trendline. It’s held on three touches, but I don’t like this spot. Every push toward $70K gets sold off before the $72K–$76K zone, and buy volume is dead. Until structure improves, it’s still sell-the-rally for me.

@seth_fin The pairing is that extreme fear + 200W is where selling declines. The war and tight liquidity still cap follow-through but these are sound levels to accumulate into. When the war settles and liquidity expands, these are the times you wish you invested.

$BTC SENTIMENT IS EXTREME FEAR. BITCOIN IS BELOW THE 200W. It will be interesting next week.

@KobeissiLetter Semis are carrying the South Korean market and economy. The impact of the war is being felt through higher oil and inflation - their broader equity markets have lagged.

South Korea's economy is seeing unprecedented growth: South Korea’s exports surged +41.9% YoY in March, the 2nd-highest in at least 2 years. This follows +49.3% in February and +14.0% in January, marking the strongest quarter since at least 2023. The surge was driven by semiconductor exports, which soared +151.4% YoY, to a record $32.8 billion, fueled by global AI and data center investment demand. Meanwhile, shipments to China jumped +64.2% YoY, the highest since the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis, and exports to the US rose +47.1%. South Korea is seeing historic economic momentum.

@MartiniGuyYT Sentiment and risk allocation is in the trash with the war. These are the times you build big positions by entering at attractive levels.

💥INSIGHT JPMORGAN SAYS CRYPTO FLOWS DROP TO $11 BILLION IN Q1, DOWN 66% FROM Q1 2025

@Cointelegraph Decent uptick, but still not QE. Fed is still broadly tight, and liquidity is getting drained elsewhere through issuance and high real rates. Crypto needs this trend continue for weeks alongside falling yields.

🇺🇸 LATEST: Fed balance sheet assets rose to $6.67T, up about $18B week-over-week

Pretty much the market saying capital still earns a strong real return in safe assets. This keeps pressure on equity multiples, raises hurdle rates, and stops gold from fully expressing the macro stress. Until real yields break lower, liquidity stays trapped in cash and bonds instead of flowing hard into duration and risk.

10yr TIPS yield right in the middle of its 3-year range... near 2%