Ben Buchanan

@EricJhonsa This is so awesome, can’t wait to see what you guys can do together!

Some personal news: I’ve accepted a position as a portfolio manager for Dutch Asset Corporation, an RIA that provides actively-managed portfolios (primarily featuring individual stocks) for high-net-worth clients and institutions. At Dutch, I’ll be managing money using a diversified, tech-focused, long-short equity approach similar to the one I've been applying on my own over the last few years. I’ve been providing consulting services for Dutch since 2023 and have gotten to know the firm’s founder, Cullen Breen, well over that time. After meeting with Cullen and other Dutch team members in October, and passing the Series 65 exam in December, I agreed to join the firm as a PM. Agreeing to manage outside money isn’t something I did lightly, both due to the responsibilities involved and because I’ve enjoyed what I’ve been doing over the last few years. But I’m looking forward to the challenge of applying my strategy on a larger scale, and to having the additional resources that a firm like Dutch can provide. To avoid conflicts of interest, the only personal funds I’ll be trading stocks with will be among the assets that I’ll be collectively managing at Dutch. And for compliance reasons, I won’t be able to share portfolio holdings or returns on here going forward. But I’ll continue sharing thoughts on markets, companies, and tech trends over here. (Boilerplate disclaimer: Dutch Asset Corporation is a registered investment adviser. Any prior investment activity shared was not in a professional capacity and is not indicative of future results. Full disclosures: dutchasset.com/disclosures)

@eftegarie @propaganda_bkk This works too!

@propaganda_bkk I really am. But it’s betting on Polymarket where I have an edge and am profitable, not true degenerate gambling.

My name is Amin Eftegarie, and I’m addicted to gambling.

@eftegarie As long as you can find positive sum bets that’s a gift to harness rather than a curse to bear. Gamble on value stonks and using leaps not roulette and 0DTEs

How strong is your moat if people can crack it by…using your product?

@AutismCapital Goblins valley Utah

Where is the most beautiful place you've visited in the US?

Incumbents that are deeply embedded into big companies are sticky and won't be replaced by vibe coded alternatives or new upstarts. Seat growth headwinds are real but more than priced in. AI will be a tailwind for these companies insofar as making dev costs drop and adding features. Having a million alternatives (assuming this actually happens) may impact the smaller companies who are not already deeply attached to a certain software (e.g. my new venture backed startup might use a new CRM instead of Salesforce), but it may even have the opposite effect on large companies who will want to stick with what is widely used rather than risk moving to a startup with no support infrastructure. Also, insofar as agents go - people say that margins will go down because the gross margin for serving generative AI is far lower than that of serving software - I don't buy this. In practice, take Adobe for example, if you prompt ChatGPT to make you a new logo it may generate 50 options until you get 5 you like. You paid for 50 though. Adobe with it's hundred million users will be able to inject behind the scenes prompts based on all of its user data so that in order to get 5 good options you only need to generate 15 instead of 50. You will also know that whatever is generated is free from copyright issues, and it will automatically be converted into the usable file formats and vectors. This analogy holds across anyone who is paying for agent time - the big incumbents will make these things more efficient and already integrated into their other features and be able to charge for that.

@01Core_Ben @stoneagenathan @01Core_Ben - could you break down what you’re thinking on this?

$INTU 5 yr weekly candles. Dare I say that candle looks like the worst ever?

@MetacriticCap @PythiaR x.com/01core_ben/sta…

The market is telling you: $MSFT business model is broken. It's one thing to bundle me-too products when the TAM is $40B (say IAM). Customers accept. Another thing is to bundle AI. AI will be the biggest software category as soon as '27. Totally different dynamics.

Or donate the money to a non-profit focused on curing aging? Surely that would be a better use.

The 3 most obvious things re: AI impact 1) Operating systems win. Apple, Microsoft, Google. Today Apple has the "app store tax". Tomorrow, all of these companies will charge a "tax" to any company (e.g. Anthropic, Adobe, etc) that wants to run an agent on their operating systems. The tax will be to pay for the security required to keep the agents from running amok, to make sure certain files stay protected, manage audit trails, etc. I expect the business model will be some base fee + a usage fee (imagine that it takes tokens to monitor the activity of agents, they'll charge the token cost + 30% or something, along with an access fee). Eventually this turns into hundreds of billions of new revenue. 2) Operating systems win. Apple, Microsoft, Google. Personal agents are a $1T+ opportunity. Think a "butler" or "friend" who has access to all of your information, who speaks to you through an avatar with an appearance and a personality that you customize. I thought this would be here by 2027/2028 but I've moved back my timeline to 2029/2030. 3) Companies who dominate "discovery" channels will print. $META first and foremost. The onslaught of new apps, the increased ease and effectiveness of marketing content, the copycats, AI slop - all of it just makes the job of filtering and connecting (creators and consumers) all the more valuable. $GOOG is primary second beneficiary followed by $AAPL in a distant third.

@dissectmarkets Apple is working on their ad business too but still very small so far

@01Core_Ben Yes you’re right They’ll be spending big bucks just to get people to know their product exists on IG and FB I didn’t think about that Marketing spend is gonna be way bigger than the amount $AAPL makes from paid downloads and paid subscriptions

$META is the number one beneficiary of the content and app explosion, followed by Google, with Apple and TikTok in distant thirds, and even Snapchat in a very distant fourth.

@dissectmarkets The amount of money they make on helping people discover things is a pretty distant third to Meta and Google

@01Core_Ben I thought $AAPL would be the biggest beneficiary

@shantibball Chaos out there

@plantmath1 Wouldn't be surprised to see this mark a local top, seems like it could suck in a ton of money from momentum/retail names.

Three trillion dollar IPOs may create too much supply and be a catalyst of the market to correct. It’s basically SPAC mania concentrated into three names.

@neilquinn @credenzaclear2 😂 true

@credenzaclear2 As a guy I can live off a compliment for like a decade

@fallacyalarm The only reason I care about money at all is to be able to afford the best healthcare for my loved ones. I hope it doesn’t turn out that it is expensive but I think it’s prudent to prepare for the possibility. I like saving money more than spending it anyway ;)

🔎Betting on the superrich supercentenarian. In the future, mortality will not be the great equalizer anymore. Instead, it will accelerate inequality and add an entirely new dimension to it. - In a world with obscene inequality (that seems to be getting more obscene every day), there is one comforting thought: No matter how much richer some people are on paper compared to you, their clocks tick as fast as yours. If you live a reasonable life, Jeff Bezos’ billions don’t raise his odds to outlive you by much. - I believe this will change drastically in the coming decades. We will see rich people making it far into their 100s en masse and average people likely won’t. Our mortality will not be the great equalizer anymore. Instead, it will accelerate inequality and add an entirely new dimension to it. - Medical R&D typically targets very specific diseases. But if you look at all these efforts in combination, they form a large mosaic that tells the same story. All healthcare R&D ultimately follows one overarching objective: Delay death. - Our mission to delay death is becoming increasingly expensive. We have harvested most low hanging fruits such as proper nutrition and hygiene standards. Additional gains must come from professional longevity management and from breakthroughs in medical R&D, via clinical trials that cost billions of dollars. - Those breakthroughs are happening right now. But it will be difficult to offer them to the population at large. Healthcare providers must generate returns to justify their spending. It will be increasingly difficult for most people to afford state-of-the-art healthcare. Many public social security systems are at their breaking points. Some are already beyond. And AI is disrupting the labor market which causes uncertainty about how much bargaining power legions of white collar workers will have in the future. - Therefore, medical R&D will primarily be funded by the wealthy who will then also be the ones enjoying its results. Individualized, professional & high quality healthcare and lifestyle management will become the ultimate luxury good. If you are looking to serve the most potent consumer of the future, think about the superrich supercentenarian. Link to article in bio. Entirely free to read.

what a chart $ROP weekly candles 5yrs

My highest conviction idea right now, about half as excited as I was since Google last year bc valuations still, but it’s that AI is a good thing for most big software companies. I’ve added 5% to a basket and would take that up To 10% if we get another 20% pullback, scaling in slowly as we decline.

@01Core_Ben All vibes. Business still doing great. Probabilistic AIs aren't going to take over deterministic bookkeeping and accounting software anytime soon.