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@0xkron

solana trading mathematics simplicity | rm/acc - remove to accelerate

Katılım Mart 2013
1.1K Takip Edilen178 Takipçiler
kron
kron@0xkron·
@TomDavidsonX Maybe humans have many more bottleneck youre missing ai will fail at.... dont you see that using ai already?
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Tom Davidson
Tom Davidson@TomDavidsonX·
Excited that we've published this paper. Big takeaways for me: - The feedback loops for AI R&D really are weirdly strong, much stronger than other economic feedback loops. - This really didn't have to be the case. It is a striking and surprising empirical fact. Economists should sit up and listen. - First, "ideas getting harder to find" is empirically a much weaker effect in AI than in other areas of technology - Second, the absolute rates of improvement for AI technology are crazy fast. AI chips double in efficiency every 2 years; algs double every ~1. - Third, when AI gets better that allow us to automate more tasks. (We don't even model this feedback loop!) - You don't need full automation for growth to significantly accelerate. Partial-and-increasing automation is enough. You can avoid human bottlenecks if you automate remaining tasks quickly enough. And we estimate just how quickly!
Anton Korinek@akorinek

1/🆕 New NBER paper: 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗜 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵? Under empirically grounded calibrations, a singularity could arrive within just a few years of automating AI research. 🧵 📄 nber.org/papers/w35155

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kron
kron@0xkron·
@JosephJacks_ this is going to be the new frontier and many just dont realize it yet
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ThePrimeagen
ThePrimeagen@ThePrimeagen·
"Non technical teams shipping production code" - coinbase
Brian Armstrong@brian_armstrong

This is an email I sent earlier today to all employees at Coinbase: Team, Today I’ve made the difficult decision to reduce the size of Coinbase by ~14%. I want to walk you through why we're doing this now, what it means for those affected, and how this positions us for the future. Why now Two forces are converging at the same time. We need to be front footed to respond to both. First, the market. Coinbase is well-capitalized, has diversified revenue streams, and is well-positioned to weather any storm. Crypto is also on the verge of the next wave of adoption, with stablecoins, prediction markets, tokenization, and more taking off. However, our business is still volatile from quarter to quarter. While we've managed through that cyclicality many times before and come out stronger on the other side, we’re currently in a down market and need to adjust our cost structure now so that we emerge from this period leaner, faster, and more efficient for our next phase of growth. Second, AI is changing how we work. Over the past year, I’ve watched engineers use AI to ship in days what used to take a team weeks. Non-technical teams are now shipping production code and many of our workflows are being automated. The pace of what's possible with a small, focused team has changed dramatically, and it's accelerating every day. All of this has led us to an inflection point, not just for Coinbase, but for every company. The biggest risk now is not taking action. We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native. We need to return to the speed and focus of our startup founding, with AI at our core. What this means To get there, we are not just reducing headcount and cutting costs, we’re fundamentally changing how we operate: rebuilding Coinbase as an intelligence, with humans around the edge aligning it. What does this mean in practice? - Fewer layers, faster decisions: We are flattening our org structure to 5 layers max below CEO/COO. Layers slow things down and create coordination tax. The future is small, high context teams that can move quickly. Leaders will own much more, with as many as 15+ direct reports. Fewer layers also means a leaner cost structure that is built to perform through all market cycles. - No pure managers: Every leader at Coinbase must also be a strong and active individual contributor. Managers should be like player-coaches, getting their hands dirty alongside their teams. - AI-native pods: We’ll be concentrating around AI-native talent who can manage fleets of agents to drive outsized impact. We’ll also be experimenting with reduced pod sizes, including “one person teams” with engineers, designers, and product managers all in one role. In short: AI is bringing a profound shift in how companies operate, and we’re reshaping Coinbase to lead in this new era. This is a new way of working, and we need to leverage AI across every facet of our jobs. To those who are affected I know there are real people behind these decisions — talented colleagues who have poured themselves into this company and our mission. To those of you who will be leaving: thank you. You’ve helped build Coinbase into what it is today, and I am sincerely grateful for everything you've done. All impacted team members will receive an email to their personal account in the next hour with more information, and an invitation to meet with an HRBP and a senior leader in your organization. Coinbase system access has been removed today. I know this feels sudden and harsh, but it is the only responsible choice given our duty to protect customer information. To those affected, we will be providing a comprehensive package to support you through this transition. US employees will receive a minimum of 16 weeks base pay (plus 2 weeks per year worked), their next equity vest, and 6 months of COBRA. Employees on a work visa will get extra transition support. Those outside of the US will receive similar support, based on local factors and subject to any consultation requirements. Coinbase prides itself on talent density. Our employees are among the most talented people in the world, and I have no doubt that your skills and experience will be highly sought after as you pursue your next chapters. How we move forward To the team that is staying, I know this is a difficult day. We’re saying goodbye to colleagues and friends you've been in the trenches with. But here’s what I want you to know as we move forward together: Over the past 13 years, we have weathered four crypto winters, gone public, and built the most trusted platform in our industry. We’ve made it this far by making hard decisions and by always staying focused on our mission. This time will be no different – nothing has changed about the long term outlook of our company or industry. And most importantly, our mission has never been more important for the world. Increasing economic freedom requires a new financial system, and we’re building it. The Coinbase that emerges from this will be more capable than ever to achieve our mission. Brian

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kron
kron@0xkron·
@calcsam the sdks Will change. only shipping useful product makes sense at this point
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Sam Bhagwat
Sam Bhagwat@calcsam·
getting some pushback here so: - rl not a strong enough moat for the labs long term - harness market is way more competitive than model market - people don't want to be locked in, that's why langchain/ai sdk got so popular vs lab sdks
Sam Bhagwat@calcsam

x.com/i/article/2051…

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nader dabit
nader dabit@dabit3·
you don't have to keep your laptop open for your agents to keep running just type /handoff and send your agent to the cloud with @DevinAI (and close your laptop) from there, your agent gets: - its own Linux VM - shell, IDE, browser - full desktop Computer Use - end-to-end test recordings - ready-to-review PRs - it's own review agent you can continue your session from your phone, computer, or anywhere with an internet connection and you can send as many sessions as you'd like in parallel.
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kron
kron@0xkron·
@FredKSchott what have you even done well if they can just copy you?
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fks
fks@FredKSchott·
in case you’re wondering what the moat is in software these days: about 48hr
Shashi 🇬🇧🇺🇸@Shashikant86

🎉Introducing PyFlue: The Python-Native Agent Harness Framework.🧰 💡Flue for Python: Fred K. Schott @FredKSchott CEO of HTML has launched Flue: The Agent Harness Framework for TypeScript. It brings programmable harness right into your agents rather than DIY plumbing. Python ecosystem already has 🦾 powerful AI/ML tools and frameworks and research initiatives but most frameworks asked users to build your own harness. Superagentic AI bringing this concept of Flue to Python 🐍 ecosystem. Here is PyFlue even even better 🤖 Agent = Model 💻 + Harness 🧰 + Memory 🧠 Almost all the feature of Flue plugged with @LangChain Deepagents harness built by @hwchase17 and team @Vtrivedy10 @sydneyrunkle and more coming soon. 👉 Stop building agent loops, start using a harness. 💻 Try PyFlue Now : super-agentic.ai/pyflue ⭐️ GitHub: github.com/SuperagenticAI… 📚Docs: superagenticai.github.io/pyflue/ 📙 Blog Post: super-agentic.ai/resources/supe… #HarnessEngineering #AgentHarnesses

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Max Resnick
Max Resnick@MaxResnick·
By 2055 or so, it will become clear that the quantum computer’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. -Dan Boneh
Robin Hanson@robinhanson

.@danboneh tells me: quantum computers can't use quadratic search advantage, so main advantage is quantum sims & factoring to break old crypto. Their speed & size is much worse than usual computers, so this will be small specialized device industry.

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kron
kron@0xkron·
Minimal languages with fast compilation times and fast runtimes will dominate in the age of LLM generated apps. Spoiler alert - TypeScript is not.
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kron
kron@0xkron·
@atmoio have you tried the 4 options you suggest? I have and the $ ... one... say it just looks as if it works but really does not - krons.fiu.wtf/pub/rsx
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Mo
Mo@atmoio·
the future of software engineering seems uncontroversially prompting + code review. startups will skip the code review because they’re racing against time. larger/serious orgs will take code review very seriously. llms can do code review, but my guess is that because they have to search through large space, it will be as expensive to have say mythos review your code as it would be to have a senior dev. based on budget: $: prompting only $$: low grade llm review $$$: mid grade llm + dev review $$$$: high grade llm + sr dev review btw, software (past the bootstrapping phase) will get more expensive to make and take more time. quality will remain exactly the same as when humans were doing it: shit.
Zack Korman@ZackKorman

Mandatory human-in-the-loop is a cybersecurity cop-out. People are giving agents more and more autonomy. We need solutions that accept that world because there is no stopping it. It's like telling people in the 90s to not use the internet to avoid getting hacked. Good luck.

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kron
kron@0xkron·
@0xdoug oh dear ... you'll pay much more than 1k
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Doug Colkitt
Doug Colkitt@0xdoug·
Sure. I’m not saying non engineers don’t use Claude. But do they generate significant revenue? Unless there are like 100 million Claude subscribers, the only way to get to $44b ARR is finding users who will pay $1k/month or more. And (afaik) the only way to spend $1k on Claude is to use API billing and consume on the order of 10 million tokens per day. And the only workstreams I’ve really seen using millions of tokens per day is coding and technical work. I could be wrong, but it’s hard for me to imagine lawyers or product managers or investment bankers using 10 million tokens per day in their normal work.
gazingback@virtu101

@0xdoug it’s not just engineers tho. Product sales finance marketing etc can all use a ton of this stuff

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kron
kron@0xkron·
@beffjezos the utility is also maybe less... as doomscrolling does not create debt for later
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kron@0xkron·
@hwchase17 I dont think so. The models needs to be tuned very well for that. It is more likely you framework will just support more. And maybe the harness model pair will just determine other systems youll run.
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Harrison Chase
Harrison Chase@hwchase17·
switching model providers is easy switching harnesses is less so model providers want to lock you in via harness we need open harnesses!
Kenton Varda@KentonVarda

TBH I don't agree with your take. I don't think Athropic's desire to control the harness is about keeping resource usage under control. They could accomplish that by just enforcing limits on the actual resource usage (which they already do) -- if some third-party harness is inefficient, users of than harness hit their limits faster. I think instead that they want to control the harness because if switching LLM providers is too easy, it makes business difficult for the providers. Say GPT 5.5 comes out and it's clearly smarter, faster, and cheaper than Opus 4.7. If everyone can switch providers with two clicks in their harness, many of them will. This would lead to wild revenue and usage swings, which makes capacity planning hard. And perfect competition drives down prices -- in this scenario Opus has to cut its prices to get some users back. Obviously no business wants to be in that situation! By controlling the harness, they add some stickiness. If switching LLM providers means switching harnesses, that's a barrier high enough that most people won't bother to do it on a whim. So now Opus 4.7 can weather the storm until 4.8 or whatever comes out and is back on top. So it makes perfect sense to me as a business decision. It may be user-unfriendly, but tech companies do stuff like this all the time. It's nothing new. Though I would say, it seems weird to me to do this *on top of* subscriptions. Subscriptions already create a lot of stickiness. If you're subscribed only to Claude, that's a pretty big barrier to trying out GPT quickly -- a bigger barrier than the harness barrier I think. So I question whether controlling the harness is really worth all the effort they are putting into it, but idk, they probably have insights that I don't on this. Another factor here might actually be safety concerns. As we know, Anthropic leadership is deeply (excessively, IMO) worried about AI safety, and they feel that Anthropic will do a better job of addressing safety than any other company. They may feel that control of the harness is an important tool for that. I could definitely imagine Dario being terrified of OpenClaw from a safety perspective (I sort of am too). These explanations make much more sense to me than the efficiency issue, which again seems like it could easily be managed in other ways. But of course, these explanations are much harder to just come out and say, without stirring a lot more outrage...

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fks
fks@FredKSchott·
Introducing Flue — The First Agent Harness Framework Flue is a TypeScript framework for building the next generation of agents, designed around a built-in agent harness. Flue is like Claude Code, but 100% headless and programmable. There's no baked in assumption like requiring a human operator to function. No TUI. No GUI. Just TypeScript. But using Flue feels like using Claude Code. The agents you build act autonomously to solve problems and complete tasks. They require very little code to run. Most of the "logic" lives in Markdown: skills and context and AGENTS.md. Flue is like Astro or Next.js for agents (not surprising, given my background 🙃). It's not another AI SDK. It's a proper runtime-agnostic framework. Write once, build, and deploy your agents anywhere (Node.js, Cloudflare, GitHub Actions, GitLab CI/CD, etc). We originally built Flue to power AI workflows inside of the Astro GitHub repo. But then @_bgiori got his hands on it, and we realized that every agent needs a framework like Flue, not just us. Check it out! It's early, but I'm curious to hear what people think. Are agents ready for their library -> framework moment?
fks tweet media
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Thomas D
Thomas D@tthomasdd·
@0xblacklight I think that most people mean "code is cheap [to produce]" not that the maintenance burden has been alleviated. At least... that's what I think. Since code is so cheap (to produce), changing your mind is easy, and prototyping is rapid. I am unsure anyone is claiming otherwise.
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kron@0xkron·
@JonathanRoss321 all yes engineers will be bogged dow by inconsequential petty projects ... everybidy, be the No Attention slop Engineers, please.
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Jonathan Ross
Jonathan Ross@JonathanRoss321·
For 50 years, software engineering ran on code rationing. Writing code was expensive, so we rationed it carefully through roadmaps, RFCs, prioritization meetings, and scope reviews. This created a role: the No Engineer. No, that won't scale. No, we don't have bandwidth. No, that's out of scope. No, we need a design doc first. The No Engineer was valuable for 50 years. Every "no" saved real money. Their judgment was the rationing system. LLMs will be the end of code rationing. Code is cheap now. And while the No Engineer is explaining why something can't be done, the Yes Engineer has already shipped three versions of it. If you're a Yes Engineer, the next decade is yours.
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kron
kron@0xkron·
@IceSolst compilers are designed and well specified ... you understand perfectly what the compiler does emit and what the results are ... on the contrary llms dont even have a version as you get served by clearly random instance on the web. they are not the same in any respect
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