CrosscheckC

About 2600 pilots (according to ALPA) just got dumped into an already suuuuper saturated and depressing hiring market. I’m not sure how the airlines will absorb Spirits customers, planes and pilots, but in the short term it’s gonna be ruff

why are we acting like JetBlue/Spirit wouldn’t have just delayed this?

For perhaps the last time: No one can afford to cheer for Spirit’s demise. Their presence forced other carriers to lower fares for years - yes, even AA, Delta & United. What a sad end to a pioneering airline. Combined with fuel prices, we’re entering a new era of higher fares.

Spirit Airlines Expected to Cease Operations Around 3 A.M. ET Saturday — WSJ

For perhaps the last time: No one can afford to cheer for Spirit’s demise. Their presence forced other carriers to lower fares for years - yes, even AA, Delta & United. What a sad end to a pioneering airline. Combined with fuel prices, we’re entering a new era of higher fares.

A few thoughts on my mind as I prepare for the coming week. - The goal isn't to beat the S&P. The goal is to beat, exploit, or take advantage of the market participants who think they can beat the S&P. - You gotta love this game to be great at it. - Analysts have 5 skills they need to hone/develop: recall of past patterns, mental visualization of a business within the feedback loops of its ecosystem, read between the lines, make leaps of judgment, and synthesize. AI tools inhibit or dull all these skills, especially in rookies. - Investing (or trading) is a team sport if you want to do it well. - You make the most money on a stock while the moat is emerging, being built, or widening. Not when it is static. The same with an analyst on your team. While her moat is being built is when she makes you the most money. - There are tools, questions, and processes that can increase your probability of making money while minimizing risk. - The writing process correlates with the investing process. Or another way to put it: great writing correlates/causes/conditions great investing. - You can create culture. You can even fix a culture if you catch the cultural problems early enough. - If you have 12 steps in your investment process, Idea Generation + position sizing are the two steps that are 80% of the value of the 12. - Ideas where you will be able to use most of your portfolio management tools are better than ideas where you can use only a few. - Lessons from your hobbies or passions can be applied to your investing; even better if you infuse your personal style, identity, and experiences into your investing. Mrs Market rewards authenticity. - Competitive advantages in investing or fleeting; you have to constantly find new ones. - The height of behaviorism is using yourself as a contra indicator. - While researching, if you see a company you are studying do something innovative, see if you can do the same innovation in your investing, or for your investment business. - You cannot have great results in investing without leverage or concentration. - Keep a list of ideas you pass on, review this list at certain time intervals. - The best filters for great ideas are smart people. - Liquidity is the most beautiful thing. If you are wrong, she allows you to get out, and you might even have time to go short if you were long or to go long if you were short. If you are right and there is no more bear case, she allows you to buy more. - Investors in your fund are your partners, not your clients. Your clients are actually the people, ideas, and processes that make money and reduce risk for your fund. - There is such a thing as creativity in the investment business. Especially in field research. - The ethos of the hedge fund business has changed. We used to be pirates (just an analogy, kids, not advocating to do anything illegal), and over time, starting in the early aughts, we became the British Navy. Are we in an age where Pirates or the British Navy will thrive? Would argue this is an age of pirates. Remember to protect your ships before they are raided by maraudeurs. Pirates attack at night, while you sleep. Have a profitable coming week. Happy hunting!