48 Crash

@anne_hegerty @montie Trump likes retrohesive explanations for his actions - claiming a coherence for them that really wasn’t apparent at the start. Which makes one suspicious …

@montie 'a risky but estimable effort to overthrow or, at least, massively degrade one of history's most poisonous and totalitarian regimes' - I agree. But I also feel that, given Trump's threats to seize the territory of an ally, Europe is quite justified in not joining in.

Wrong, I'm afraid. This correct decision is completely consistent with Starmer's position that Britain will support defensive actions especially any that thwart DIRECT Iranian attacks on British assets and allies. I'm one of a small minority of Brits who see the US-led action against Iran as a risky but estimable effort to overthrow or, at least, massively degrade one of history's most poisonous and totalitarian regimes. A regime that would blackmail its neighbours and what's left of the free west if it acquired nuclear weapons - potentially quite soon and so waiting for a better time to act reeks of cowardice. The eight post-WWII decades in which the good guys have held the upper, stronger and winning hand in geopolitics will be over (and, yes, the west is overwhelmingly preferable to all alternative polecon models). But my view is most definitely not the view of a clear majority of Brits and I fear it's a settled view both here and throughout Europe. On this issue Starmer is much more in tune with voters than me. He may even be thinking that the popularity of his Iran stance might save him from a leadership challenge after Labour gets routed in May's elections. The intl lawyer inside him actually may believe in this policy (or at least Ed Miliband does, his govt's increasingly assertive backseat driver) and - exceptionally - voters approve of it. So this is not a u-turn and the chances of one happening in the coming weeks? As likely as a Mandelson return.

@DrHelenFry Bloody dangerous

What WW2 book will you be reading this weekend?

@RobNoLastName The chances of them paying off the national debt in 18 months were always slim, even before Trump blundered into the Middle East.

The Government borrowed £14.3bn in February. £13bn of that was to pay debt interest. We're paying off the credit card with a credit card. When the left say "just borrow more" they haven't twigged they're taking money away from public services and giving it to banks Fools.

@Waqas_Inayat1 @Osinttechnical It’s meant as a message to NATO, although it reads rather more as an admission of defeat.

The trap is set. 🪤🇬🇧 Trump says other nations can guard the Strait of Hormuz because it’s an "easy Military Operation." This is a direct message to Starmer and the UK. While the UK loaded 2,000lb bombs at RAF Fairford and followed the US into the fire, Trump is now "winding down." Is the UK about to be left holding the bag for a war the US is finished with? 🌍⚖️ #Starmer

Trump says that the US is close to achieving its war goals and is "consider[ing] winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East." Adds that other nations can guard the Strait of Hormuz, "it will be an easy Military Operation for them."

@DrFrancisYoung @DrMatthewSweet And wasn’t it something of the 1920’s - a post-war rejection of the old world? Whereas now we’re replaying the 1930’s, with weary cynicism. Again.

@DrMatthewSweet I think this is absolutely right, but it's worth bearing in mind that (like the NHS and the Postwar consensus) modern Paganism is fraying at the edges - it seems to be suffering a long-term demographic decline like Christianity in the UK. People don't like joining things anymore

I do think modern Paganism is one of the great achievements of post-war Britain. Gerald Gardner, codifying a dream of the deep past and the solace and inspiration of nature. Like the NHS and the Royal Festival Hall, long may it last.

@AdamPollock @ClarkeMicah You’re assuming that the CS had anything to do with it. Since Johnson’s reign of error, spades have been bending the impartiality rules under cover of darkness. Which is no excuse.

@ClarkeMicah Precisely, yes. My question was rhetorical, but this would be the answer if it weren’t.

Because, @adampollock , we are undergoing a revolution, and civil service impartiality has been one of its key victims

@JamesMelville That’s because individuals think that other individuals should stick to the rules, because we’re all in this together.

International Energy Agency recommendations to ease oil price pressures in response to Middle East supply disruptions: ▪️Work from home ▪️Reduce highway speed limits ▪️Car sharing ▪️Avoid air travel Problem - Solution = individual restrictions & more government control.

@WorldByWolf Some civil war when we couldn’t afford petrol bombs.

My parents grew up in a Britain with a three day working week but at least they had a homogeneous society and debt to GDP was half what it is today. Our fiscal and social reality today means we couldn’t weather a similar crisis today. This could be the trigger for civil war.

@A_Fine_Rosey @Ye_Olde_Holborn One could argue that the banks hadn’t covered themselves in glory … anyway, it’s in their interest [sic] to avoid a financial nuclear winter.

@48_Crash @Ye_Olde_Holborn We could ask. Although the government made a profit from that which was clearly spaffed on useless nonsense.

>>>This is known as the doom vortex phase

@reidarberg @MichaelARothman The Europeans are running out of choice, not gaining enthusiasm. Leaving the Straight closed would be suicide. This is not an endorsement of the action that got it shut in the first place.

Fact-check of the key claims (as of today) • Europeans shifting: Mixed but directionally supportive of VDH’s thesis. Some NATO countries have quietly allowed use of bases (e.g., UK Diego Garcia and Cyprus facilities) and are discussing naval patrols in the Strait of Hormuz. VDH’s rule (“they only join when they smell victory”) is interpretive—he’s reading hesitation turning to hedging—but it aligns with observed behavior after three weeks of US/Israeli dominance. • Gulf petro-states betting on the US: Strongly validated. Qatar just expelled Iranian military and security attachés (March 19) after Iranian missiles damaged its Ras Laffan LNG facility. The UAE publicly reaffirmed its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the US mid-war. Saudi Arabia and UAE have intercepted Iranian projectiles aimed at their territory and stayed largely silent on US strikes. These are classic “revealed preference” moves by survival-focused monarchies. • Al Jazeera praising the campaign: Real and notable. Al Jazeera (Qatari state-backed, historically critical of US/Israel actions) published an opinion piece titled “The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is working,” detailing how Iran’s ballistic missile launches dropped >90%, air defenses were suppressed in days, and naval assets were largely neutralized. That’s a remarkable tonal shift for the network that also hosts Hamas’s political office. • A-10 Warthogs and Apaches flying freely in Iranian airspace: Confirmed by Pentagon updates and multiple outlets. These slow, low-flying platforms are now operating over the Strait of Hormuz and deeper into Iranian territory hunting boats, drones, and remaining missile sites. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine explicitly noted this only happens when meaningful air defenses are gone. (Iran’s navy has been declared “gone” after 7,000+ targets hit; air superiority over western Iran and Tehran was achieved without US/Israeli aircraft losses.) • Iran’s strategy and regime-fall timeline: Iran is indeed playing for time—retaliatory strikes on Gulf energy, proxies, and shipping—hoping US public opinion and 2026 midterms create pressure. VDH literally said on air: “If Trump sees it through… they’re going to fall pretty soon… in two, three, four weeks.” That’s his historical read (regimes collapse fast once momentum is lost), not a Pentagon guarantee.

𝗩𝗗𝗛: 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗦 𝗔𝗥𝗘 𝗔𝗟𝗟 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗔𝗠𝗘 𝗗𝗜𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡. Victor Davis Hanson has spent fifty years studying how wars end. When he says the tide is turning, it's worth listening to why. His argument isn't based on what the Pentagon is saying. It's based on how everyone else is behaving. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀. VDH's rule: Europeans never agree to go anywhere near a conflict unless they think the winning side has already been determined. They didn't help in the early days. Now they're starting to move. That movement is not idealism. It's a calculation. They've looked at the battlefield and decided which way this ends. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗼-𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀. The Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris — these governments have survived for generations by reading the regional climate with precision. When they expel Iranian military attachés, when they intercept Iranian missiles over their own capitals and say nothing about American strikes, when the UAE reaffirms its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the United States mid-war — they are not making ideological statements. They are placing bets. And they are betting on the United States. 𝗔𝗹 𝗝𝗮𝘇𝗲𝗲𝗿𝗮. This is the one that should stop you cold. Al Jazeera — the Qatari state media network, historically critical of American military action, the network Tucker Carlson and the anti-war right love to cite against Israel — is now calling the U.S. bombing campaign brilliant and effective, and saying it has been underestimated. When the media outlet of a nation that hosts both the largest American air base in the Middle East and a Hamas political office starts praising American military effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘸𝘦'𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘸𝘪𝘯. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹. A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopter gunships are now flying strike missions in Iranian airspace at will. VDH's point: you only deploy those aircraft when there is effectively no air defense left to threaten them. They are slow, low-flying, close-support platforms. Their presence confirms what the Pentagon has been claiming — Iran has no meaningful air defense remaining. Iran's strategy now is rope-a-dope. Run out the clock. Wait for American public opinion to shift. Hope the midterms create political pressure on Trump to stop. It is the only play they have left. VDH's conclusion: if Trump sees it through — and he believes he will — the regime falls. Not in years. 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗼𝗼𝗻. 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗱𝗼, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝘀𝗮𝘆. 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮.

@A_Fine_Rosey @Ye_Olde_Holborn I seem to remember that we all took the hit to bail out the banking system a while before - is there any way that they could return the favour, seeing as how the western world is starting to look shaky?

@Ye_Olde_Holborn To be fair they've been doing that since March 2020 when we eventually hit a small surplus, budget surplus being a foreign concept to modern western governments it seems.

@Allthenames2 @A1an_M The economy was miserable. All they’ve managed is to show how little control a government has over it.

@A1an_M I hope all the idiots who voted for Labour are happy. The Tories left billions in headroom for Reeves. She spunked all the money and blamed a non existent financial black hole.

It will take a sterling crisis and IMF bailout, I'm afraid. Now that the takers from the State far exceed the givers, a party pushing austerity cannot possibly win an election, or govern.

@AdamPollock Because the Johnson government set a standard of political messages being issued by departments, and ignoring the Standards committee. This is certainly no excuse.

Why is a civil service department of the British Government celebrating the end of a 700-year-old system of governance? Nobody hates Britain as much as the bureaucratic managerial class. When we win, every single civil servant who supports this must go.

@unearthed2023 @moving_charlie Did you have strategies to get through ‘89-‘95 or the big banking balls-up? I know no two recessions are alike (I’ve lived through enough), but there might be something useful.

@moving_charlie My family business builds high end homes in the east of England, around the £800,000-£1,200,000 region and we are currently sat with 9/9 homes unsold in the last 12 months. Horrific times! Worst my grandfather has known in over 50 years of home building

This is much more worrying than the large house builders. Smaller builders tend to build better quality. Sad but unsurprising news.

@BearJFK Brexit was a sick man swigging bleach, hoping it’d kill all germs. One way or another, we were bound to end up here. But please, no more bleach.

Lolz When we hit the wall it’s gonna shock people right to their core. Britain is a house of cards. A single sneeze and it’s all over.

@AHWilkes @SimonCatRiley @mrianleslie - but you mentioned policy advantages; not being smart here, I genuinely wondered what you had in mind and was it measurable.

@AHWilkes @SimonCatRiley @mrianleslie Well - from personal experience, trade with the EU has continued where possible but it’s carrying new costs in charges & processing time. So we’re all looking for new markets, but again that carries more transport/processing costs. The agreements managed are mostly continuations

Most of the big things Britain needs to do are things that right-wing parties are more comfortable with - cut welfare spending, liberalise regulation, build nuclear, boost defence. But we have a Lab govt moving left and a lame Tory opposition.

@AHWilkes @SimonCatRiley @mrianleslie Is there data to prove the value of policy freedom?

@SimonCatRiley @mrianleslie Realignment with EU on trade is purely ideological and I'd challenge you to refute that using data. Policy freedom is enormously more valuable.

@John_Stepek @mrianleslie And deregulation just leads to the government - and everyone else - getting ripped off more, and we get even poorer.

@mrianleslie It's funny (in a not funny way) that we had an ostensibly right-wing party in power for such a long period of time, during which period all of these things were also desperately needed

Wish I knew who to credit. Sent via a friend. Thank you anon whoever you are. Nailed it.