49度投资

这个故事的另一个版本是：1986年微软IPO时，比尔盖茨持有约45%的股份（部分资料称上市当日一度达到48%-49%，但随后因售股稳定在约45%）。此后他长期逐步减持，持股比例逐年下降，目前个人持股已低于1%，而盖茨基金会已经完全清掉。比尔盖茨这些股份如果一直持有到现在接近1.5万亿美金，估计未来很多年都难有人望其项背。 还有一个版本是：上世纪90年代末。当时微软股价一路飙升，比尔·盖茨的财富也随之迅速膨胀。巴菲特曾给盖茨提出一个非常简单的建议：不要把全部财富押在微软一家公司上。按照巴菲特的逻辑，创始人的财富应该逐步分散到不同资产类别中，以降低风险。随后几年，盖茨开始持续减持微软股票，并将资金配置到更广泛的投资领域。 当然从数学上看，这种推算并没有明显错误。但从投资逻辑来看，开头聊的其实是一种典型的“幸存者偏差”。没有任何人能够确定微软会在未来三十年里会一直保有强势地位，即使盖茨也不例外。 这个故事告诉我们，即使创始人自己也很长期一直坚定的持有自己创立公司的股份，坚定持有远比买入卖出要难的多。 致经常卖飞拿不住的我们自己，学会和解。 Be Water！

@KotlinerBTC 请问这个是什么软件 分析很不错

$RKLB 連續第二天看 $RKLB 的交易數據，週五交易日跌了-5.87%，我想知道這樣的跌幅是不是會打擊多頭的信心? 右下圖是兩年期隱含波動率，沒有顯著升高，還是處在一個相對高但不是最高的位置，財報後的波動率已經有做頭跡象。 有趣的是左上圖，這是近期的Put/Call波動率差值趨勢，在這張圖中，我們可以很清楚看到反而因為週五的跌勢，引發多頭回籠下注。 未來四個到期日的期權全數轉折向下，這樣的形態似乎代表著市場參與者短中期都全面看多的態勢，或許是認為當下的股價已經被低估到了不合理的值。 我們用右上圖(倉位變動熱力圖)，可以看到05/13 and 05/14兩天略有黯淡的Call開倉，在05/15股價下跌的這一天反而有幾個色塊都呈現白熱化狀態，而且位置是145/150、170這些價外的行權價。 搭配Put/Call波動率差值轉折向負，這些新增的看漲期權倉位應該是來自買盤追價所形成，而且設定了相當的價外程度，似乎是想博取更大的槓桿。 近期期權中，以05/22到期的期權累積量較高(左下圖)。從這張圖可以看到目前最大痛點價格還在100整數關卡，而股價已經漲到124.77，目前剛好站在125美元累積看漲倉位超3000口的位置。不過考量股價的動能，我不認為這些看漲期權會形成阻礙，唯一比較可能形成阻力的是目前在150美元超過7000口的累積天量。

Elon Musk reveals the brutal math behind why a single hour of his time is worth $100 million "Tesla this year will do over $100 billion in revenue, so that's $2 billion a week. If I make slightly better decisions I can affect the outcome by a billion dollars. The marginal value of a better decision can easily be in the course of an hour $100 million" "You have to look at it on a percentage basis. If you look at it in absolute terms, I would never get any sleep. I'd just keep working and work my brain hotter, trying to get as much as possible out of this meat computer"

Increase Your Value:

台積電新竹技術論壇 1. AI全面導入製造，2奈米領先優勢明顯 - AI已深度導入生產排程、生成式AI優化、跨廠區（南科+中科）協作，大幅提升機台利用率與產能彈性。 - 2奈米（N2）正式量產，採用新一代Nanosheet架構。 ‧第一年產出比N3快45%，2026-2028年產能累計成長上看70%。 ‧缺陷密度提前兩季達標，良率學習曲線優於3奈米，顯示台積電先進製程成熟度領先。 2. 全球擴產進入高速期 - 2025-2026年平均每年新增9座新廠（過去2017-2024年僅4座/年）。 - 美國亞利桑那：已量產N4/N5，第2廠2027年量產N3，第3廠已動工，第4廠（P4）+先進封裝廠（AP1）啟動。 - 日本熊本：第1廠量產22/28nm，第2廠2025動工，未來導入N3。 - 德國德勒斯登：聚焦12-28nm車用/工業。 - 台灣：12座晶圓廠+先進封裝廠同步興建（新竹20廠、高雄22廠、台中25廠），全力支援N2及更先進製程。 3. 先進封裝大躍進，AI晶片進入超大封裝時代 - CoWoS良率已達98%，目前最大5.5倍光罩尺寸已量產。 ‧2028年 → 14倍光罩（20顆HBM） ‧2029年 → 超過14倍（24顆HBM） - SoW（System on Wafer）：未來可整合64顆HBM + 16個CoWoS，尺寸超過40倍光罩。 - SoIC 3D堆疊： ‧互連密度較2015年提升56倍、效能提升5倍。 ‧2025年量產6μm版本，2028年N2世代支援6μm，A14世代推進至4.5μm。 4. AI三層蛋糕成形，COUPE與矽光子成關鍵字 - AI晶片未來由三大核心構成： 1) Compute（運算） 2) 3D Integration（異質整合） 3) Photonics（光子/光學互連） - COUPE（Compact Universal Optical Photonic Engine）：先進封裝與光子深度整合，將成為數據中心高速傳輸核心。 - AI從訓練走向推論（Inference）時代，Token Economics帶動HBM與3D IC需求。 - 下一波成長動能：智慧眼鏡（最具潛力邊緣AI裝置）與人形機器人（新前沿）。 5. AI超級電腦功耗暴增200倍，數據中心走向全光化 - 單一AI Rack ASIC數量將從8顆暴增至500+顆，功耗提升200倍（單機櫃從5kW → 接近1.6MW）。 - 供電從12V/48V轉向800V HVDC。 - 銅線互連逼近極限，未來將大量導入光互連，走向All Optical（全光化）架構。 - 矽光子（SiPh）+ SoW可打造10TB以上頻寬超級交換器，大幅降低功耗與散熱。 6. AI需求全面爆發 - 2025年亞太客戶共使用超過210萬片12吋晶圓（垂直堆疊高度超過台北101）。 - 全年協助客戶完成約2,000項產品量產，平均每天超過1項新產品量產。 mp.weixin.qq.com/s/p-s5KxArEBeq…

Over $800B of AI capex in 2026 from just these 6. That’s a big enough pool for many companies across the stack to benefit.

在长时间尺度上,"高回报率"是一个不切实际的设定,真正能复利的力量来自"低损耗 + 长持续"。

$LITE to enter Nasdaq 100” $AAOI up 15% Optics space is just skyrocketing 🚀

美光科技接下来的利润表，算了一下，接下来12个月超过120b，即使10x，也应该是 1.2T market cap, 15x对应1.8T，这个让我想起来#nvda，当年也是股价不断上涨，但是由于净收入不断上涨，所以整体来看，估值并不高，美光科技有可能重演当年nvda的戏码. #MU

每当人们在Costco从买牛肉换到买鸡肉，甚至是买罐头鸡肉的时候，就会有经济衰退，历史上每次衰退都准确预测，没错过😂

人们去饭馆吃饭是因为想跟陌生人hangout

Churchill and Jung understood something modern psychology forgets: Depression feeds on abstraction. It weakens when your hands touch something real. Here are 7 cheat codes to shift your nervous system from depression into momentum: 1. Use your hands to build something.

洗衣机销量下降 代表住房需求疲软

99% of options traders are gambling because they never learned the fundamentals. This 1-hour Yale lecture changes everything. In just 60 minutes, you’ll learn more about options trading than most overpriced trading courses ever teach. No hype. No fake gurus. Just real knowledge. Save this and watch it without distractions. 📌

Absolutely crazy to see the S&P500 outperforming Berkshire Hathaway over the last 20 years. Warren Buffett was one of the best investors in the world and got beat by a simple index fund.

Winston Churchill used to lay 200 bricks per day to keep his mind busy when feeling down. Depression hates a moving target.

Is $DRAM ETF a good pick? The ETF $DRAM has been formed recently and has already made quite a name. Diving deeper into it however, there are two things that make me stick to individual stocks rather than buying $DRAM: 1. $SNDK has a weighting of only 4.81% in the ETF, in my eyes $SNDK deserves a bigger weighting. I presume this weighting is mostly based on market cap though. 2. $STX and $WDC are both HDD stocks and poised to profit from the AI boom. However, both stocks have already gone a structural repricing to higher multiples, in the range of 25-28x FY2027 earnings. These stocks are definitely not bad, but the real risk/reward asymmetry is in $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix and Samsung, which are yet to undergo a structural repricing to higher multiples. Overall, $DRAM is a solid ETF and a good pick, but I would opt to pick individual stocks if you want to properly optimize your risk/reward ratio. From my point of view, the risk/reward ratio of memory stocks is much better than HDD stocks. Not financial advice.

🚨 BREAKING: Google Gemini can now analyze any stock like a Wall Street analyst (for free). Here are 09 insane Gemini prompts that replace $4,000/month Bloomberg terminals: [ Save for later 🔖 ]

5 years ago, John McAfee gave his last interview to a college kid. He said: "Don't you understand? You have just sold yourself into slavery." The kid was talking about getting a degree, finding a job, paying off debt. McAfee wasn't sympathetic. He was horrified. Here's everything he said: You're Not Free. You're Just Comfortable. McAfee's biggest argument was simple: Most people don't live. They comply. You go to college → get a job → commute every day → sit in a windowless office for 40 years → retire. Not because you love it. Because you're afraid of what happens if you stop. That fear, he said, is the real prison. He called it modern scrip. In the 1800s, coal mine workers were paid in fake company currency, only spendable at the company store, at company prices. Workers earned. The company owned everything their earnings could touch. "The US dollar is just scrip from a bigger company called the government." You earn it. They take 25%. They can print trillions more overnight and silently shrink everything you've saved. And you can do nothing. Your Mind Is Lying To You McAfee made a distinction that runs through the entire interview: Your heart and your mind are not the same thing. The mind calculates. It says: get the degree, join the firm, plan for the future, anticipate consequences. The heart doesn't work that way. "It doesn't matter if your heart says I just want to make shoes, then make shoes. I just want to wander and see the world, then see the world." Someone pushed back: but what about money? His answer: "You have half a brain and two hands. You'll figure it out." He used falling in love as proof. When you fall in love, did you stop and calculate consequences? No. You just followed it. That's the heart. The mind inflates consequences. The heart finds a way. On Being a Fugitive and Feeling More Free Than Anyone McAfee had been arrested 21 times across 11 countries. The student asked: doesn't that weigh on you? McAfee's response: "There's nobody more 'in' than Janice and I. You folks are on the outside looking in." He referenced Thoreau, jailed for civil disobedience. A friend visited and asked: "What are you doing in there?" Thoreau looked back and said: "What are you doing out there?" McAfee's point: Freedom isn't about your circumstances. It's about whether you're living your values or someone else's. The people obeying laws they never agreed to, working jobs they don't love, staying afraid. They're the ones who are trapped. The walls are just invisible. The Two-Party System Is a Trick McAfee ran for president twice. He was clear. He wasn't interested in politics. He was interested in exposing it. "The CIA calls presidents 'transients' because that's what they are." Real power lives with the unelected permanent class. Career bureaucrats. Intelligence agencies. People no election can remove. Presidents come and go. The machine doesn't move. And the two-party system? It's a division engine. Gun control. Immigration. Every hot-button issue. McAfee called these false divisions, installed into your mind to keep you fighting each other while the system runs untouched. "Not a single hair on your head was affected by their change in power." Crypto Is the Exit Door This was his real prescription. Every currency in history requires you to trust someone. The government. The Fed. The bank. And whoever you trust controls you. Crypto breaks this for the first time. Permissionless: send money anywhere, no approval needed Trustless: math guarantees honesty, no middleman required Fixed supply: no one can print more and quietly rob you McAfee and Janice had no bank accounts, no phones, and were paid entirely in cryptocurrency. To him, this wasn't extreme. It was logical. "The phone is a spy device. The bank is a control mechanism. If you have neither, you're very difficult to own." On Happiness, From a Man Who'd Just Left a Dominican Jail The final question: Are you happy? "I'm as happy as anyone can ever be. And every day I get happier." He'd just gotten out of a Dominican Republic prison. His wife heard him laughing through the night while they were locked up. "If your heart leads you into jail, be happy there. Things will work out. I promise you." His formula was brutally simple: Accept where you are. Follow your heart. Stop trying to plan your way into safety. John McAfee died in a Spanish prison in June 2021. He was found dead the same day Spain approved his extradition to the US. He had tweeted months before: "If I suicide myself, I didn't." Whether you believe the official story or not, one thing is hard to ignore. The man who spent his entire life refusing to be owned by any system, died inside one. Make of that what you will. But the question he kept asking in this interview deserves an honest answer from each of us: Are you living your life, or are you just managing your fear?