The Long Game

Great charts by @Gavekal: The federal government missed out on locking in low long-term rates in recent years, causing interest payments to surge....

Months to reach 100 million users:

Net of revisions, employment in April only 104K higher than the previously-estimated base. The trend is slowing quite relentlessly.

🇺🇸 S&P 500 In a soft landing scenario, Goldman Sachs forecast for S&P 500 EPS is $224 in 2023, and its S&P 500 price target is 4,000 by the end of 2023 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 h/t @GoldmanSachs #markets #EPS #earnings #spx #sp500 $spx $spy #stocks #stockmarket #equities

A credit slump is coming. Source: @OxfordEconomics

👇 @LoganMohtashami housingwire.com/articles/what-…

Also, longtime Anaheim resident @GustavoArellano, who absolutely does not like Disneyland, as recommendations for nearby eateries, none of them more than 10 minutes away: latimes.com/food/list/stay…

The fundamental problem in today's Housing Market is simple: Home Prices are growing way faster than Incomes. Real Home Prices up +102% since 1970. Real Incomes only up +26%. Something changed starting in early 2000s.

IF the housing correction stopped here, it'd be remembered in markets like Phoenix not for its depth but instead for its speed. Phoenix home prices, as measured by the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller, fell 8.4% between Aug. '22 and Jan. '23 (-10.5% without seasonal adjustment). We'll get the February reading in the morning.

@DiMartinoBooth @business

No worries. Luxury home prices never fall. “Despite being granted to borrowers w/sterling credit, IOs difficult to sell into secondary market, limiting $FRC ability to unload them. By YE 2022 First Republic’s books held ~$58B in IOs mortgages on single-family homes.” @business

No margin compression, no ’23 recession on.ft.com/3mjiDDb

👇 M2 and inflation