cg
889 posts
Play of the Day.
Victor Wembanyama Under 10.5 Rebs
Run up the ❤️ for one more NBA Play
Collab w/ @FrannysPlays (31-10 collabs)
Wemby MAY come off the bench again and only played 21 minutes last game so he will likely play 30 minutes max tonight
And he’s under in 16/20 GAMES against Top 10 rebound defenses (Knicks 5th best) when he plays 21-30 minutes
With Wemby’s head coach said they are learning with him managing his injury he is most likely to play closer to 24-27 minutes
Which means he’d have to be super efficient vs 2 of the best rebounding centers in the NBA (KAT/Mitchell Robinson) to go over this line
Best Line: -156 Sleeper, 10.0 PrizePicks
Also 10.5 on EPick -125 for anyone who does have that app, or 10.5 as an ALT on Fanduel is available
Line was 10.5 everywhere last night when I posted to VIP make sure you’re in there!
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10 THINGS TO EXPECT ON THANKSGIVING, G2:
#ChiefsKingdom vs #DallasCowboys
1) Dallas gets to host Chiefs here, and both teams have lone injuries of a respective offensive lineman in LT Guyton for DAL and RG Smith for KC. Mahomes and Prescott haven't battled each other in over four years, and that game was one to forget as they combined for zero touchdowns and three interceptions.
2) George Pickens has been the DAL WR1 for 7 of the 11 DAL games, which includes three straight weeks now -- all with CeeDee Lamb. Lamb has had 7 drops this season, which is the most of any WR to play under 10 games.
Dak has posted a 139.4 Rating when throwing to Pickens this season, by far the most on the team and 2nd most amongst qualified WRs in the league behind Boutte.
3) The Chiefs are a premiere pass defense, with these notable metrics in the last 6 weeks of ball:
- 4th in Deep Ball Rate (8.1%) | 6th on SZN
- 1st in aDOT (5.5) | 1st on SZN
- 7th in Pass TDs Allowed (7) | 5th on SZN
This coverage unit runs Top 10 rates of 2-HI safety looks, typically with Bryan Cook and Jaden Hicks.
4) In the weeks with DAL's entire starting receiving core (WR1-3 & Ferg), Dak Prescott has targeted CeeDee the most at .27 TPRR; These targets have came across a solid aDOT at 13.2 and 38% of the Air Yards. Ferguson is right behind him at .24, and this is a bit more appealing given his short aDOT of 5.8 aligns with what Chiefs defense has been intending to do.
Chiefs on the season have allowed a Top 10 target share to slot route runners (Ferg, Lamb), yet bottom 10 to outside and inline route runners.
5) Chris Jones last week against Indiana was an animal, and I want to give a quick shoutout to this substack I came across that writes about The Chiefs in all capacities, ran by @RealMNchiefsfan. He noted "Jones marched onto the field with the rest of the defense with a completely different aura than one would expect in that moment. He didn’t look low on energy, or frustrated, or tired. He looked angry. And he wanted the entire world to know it".
This Chiefs defense is equally strong against the ground as they are in the air, ranking 4th in YPC (3.54) and 7th in STUFF%. Javonte Williams has notched 46% of his rushing attempts in the A Gap, so will be dealing with Chris Jones a lot.
6) Chiefs offense will and always has started with Mahomes, who will be throwing into a DAL defense that has been poor in all regards recently. On the year, DAL has given up the 3rd most passing yards and the 3rd highest QB passer rating. They have given up the 2nd most passing touchdowns and the most QB fantasy points.
Their coverage schemes have been all over the place, running the 2nd highest zone rate in their first 6 weeks (86%), then going to man coverage heavily in Weeks 7/8 (42%, 2nd most), before going right back to zone in these last 4 weeks (83%, 2nd most, half is Cover 3).
7) Against Zone, Mahomes has gone right at Rashee Rice for 32% of his routes along with 29% of 1st Reads. He splits with Kelce in actual air yards generated. When facing Cover 3 specifically, Rashee's target haul remains top of the team, but he aDOT plummets to 3.1 with the heavy use of designed screens.
Cowboys have allowed above average targets to both outside and inline route runners, benefitting both of these guys.
8) Worthy also enters the mix here, with 47% of the team's air yards against Cover 3 since Rice has returned to the lineup and a blistering 21.4 aDOT. The Cowboys have ranked 26th in explosive play rate allowed overall, and 24th specifically to pass plays.
His longest reception at 18.5 is intriguing, which he has covered in 3/5 games against non Top 10 man coverage defenses.
9) Isaiah Pacheco is back for The Chiefs, though not entirely clear how his rushing share with Kareem Hunt will pan out. Andy Reid noted (ahead of this game and after last):
“We’ll get him in there,” adding that “how much? I can’t tell you that right now. We’ll see how it goes.”
“I’m proud of [Hunt]. He’s upright, which is a positive thing … It just shows you what he’s put into it.”
DAL has ranked B10 in Success Rate and STUFF% on the year, both can thrive but touches can go either way. Would still expect Hunt to carry a larger share here.
10) Kickers (and other things)! The Chiefs have ranked 2nd best in Passing TDS allowed per game (1.0) while The Cowboys are 2nd worst (2.2). Semi-luckily for Dallas, half of their offense is behind the leg of Brandon Aubrey. KC, as a consequence of their stout RedZone defense, has allowed the 8th most kicking points on the year.
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🚨🚨BREAKING🚨🚨
All-Pro wide receiver Terry McLaurin is reportedly requesting a TRADE from the Washington #Commanders.
Wow.
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Females order sum online for 13.75 & be like “smb take my card away” 😂😂😂
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