OG Analyst
1.2K posts
OG Analyst
@ADMAEnergy
Former A&D Analyst for a major NOC
Calgary, Alberta Katılım Haziran 2025
14 Takip Edilen73 Takipçiler
IRAN REQUIRES THE TRANSFER OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM TO CHINA
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BREAKING: The White House no longer expects an agreement with Iran to be announced today and thinks it could take "several more days" for the deal's approval, per Axios.
Yesterday, President Trump said a deal announcement was coming "shortly."
US officials are "optimistic" but say the deal could still fall apart.
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@FirstSquawk Bro this is massive news, Iran finally realizing they can't win the conflict and US showing some flexibility. Markets will go wild tomorrow.
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IRAN SAYS IT IS CLOSE TO FINALIZING A DEAL WITH THE U.S. TO END THE CONFLICT AFTER WEEKS OF PAKISTAN-MEDIATED TALKS.
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Axios: Iran gave the United States, through intermediaries, oral commitments regarding the scope of its concessions on suspending uranium enrichment
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So let’s talk finance if the deal holds:
Rates drop
Dollar drops
Gold catches a bid.
Dividend stocks rally
Emerging markets up.
Commodities should do well.
Oil gets REKT.
This is just off the top of my head.
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IRAN AND PAKISTAN HAVE SENT REVISED OFFER TO US TO TERMINATE CONFLICT, OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, TWO PAKISTANI SOURCES AWARE OF NEGOTIATIONS SAY
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US AND IRAN CLOSE TO EXTENDING CEASEFIRE BY 60 DAYS, SAY MEDIATORS
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@FirstSquawk 35 ships moving through Hormuz in 24 hours isn't noise. That's Iran signaling it can keep the strait open and functioning even with Western pressure ramping up. Markets aren't pricing a real disruption risk here yet
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IRAN'S IRGC NAVY REPORTS 35 SHIPS, INCLUDING OIL TANKERS AND CONTAINER SHIPS, HAVE TRANSITED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITH IRAN'S APPROVAL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS - STATE MEDIA.
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@aeberman12 So you see here, the thing is when other products from the stack are worth more, you produce and sell those……get it?
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The most important chart of the week: diesel demand is collapsing.
The economy will follow
Diesel is the circulatory system of the real economy—trucking, mining, farming, shipping and industry.
U.S. diesel demand swung from 257 mmb/d above the 5-year average to 228 mmb/d below it in May.
#diesel #oil #economy #energy #recession #trucking #manufacturing #markets
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@12monkeysfyi @unusual_whales Is this a Bot? Your commenting and comments from yourself?
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@unusual_whales x.com/12monkeysfyi/s… Markets are repricing on deal news. But $96 WTI vs $65 pre-war = $31/barrel of war premium still priced in. A verified Hormuz reopening — 20% of global oil supply — is a structural supply event, not a sentiment trade.
James Cole@12monkeysfyi
WTI crude fell below $96 today. The market is calling this the peace trade. They're reading the wrong number. Pre-war WTI: $65. Today: $96. That's $31/barrel of war premium still priced in — even after today's 2.5% drop. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil and LNG supply. Iran closed it Feb 28. A full reopening isn't a diplomatic milestone — it's a structural supply event with 32% more downside still embedded in crude. $XLE closed at $60. It was $55 pre-war. Energy stocks have barely moved. The market is already pricing the unwind. If the deal closes and Hormuz flows again: oil doesn't stop at $96. It tracks back toward $65. May 21, 2026.
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BREAKING: A senior Iranian official told Al Jazeera that negotiators are very close to reaching a deal with the US, and are currently working on a draft text
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@FirstSquawk Who cares this has gone on 2 months longer than it should have! We had 20 million draw last week!!!!! $KOS
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IRAN AND OMAN ARE REPORTEDLY DISCUSSING A PERMANENT STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRANSIT FEE SYSTEM, WITH TEHRAN PUSHING FOR HEAVY CHARGES ON COMMERCIAL SHIPS WHILE POTENTIALLY GIVING PREFERENTIAL ACCESS TO ALLIES SUCH AS RUSSIA AND CHINA. - SOURCES
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Watch this $KOS i am not in but looks good.
🛢️ Deepwater oil & gas E&P — offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania/Senegal, Gulf of Mexico
💪 Jubilee field hitting record production (>70K bpd)
GTA LNG project advancing (Mauritania/Senegal)
📊 Q1 2026:
• Record quarterly production
• But net loss of $226M
• Q4 miss: EPS -$0.16 vs -$0.12 est, rev $296M vs $326M
📈 The chart is wild:
• +200% in 2026 ($0.84 → $3.08)
• 52wk range: $0.84–$3.32
• Now trading ABOVE avg analyst target of $2.79
📢 Goldman downgraded to Sell, PT $2.25
6 Buy vs 2 Sell overall
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@JavierBlas But if we did we WOULD NOT tell you, as our reservations would collapse starving us of Capital to continue running operations on a daily basis @ericnuttall @JoshYoung
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"We have seen absolutely no issues with jet fuel supply [...] We have no concerns this summer. We fully intent to fly the schedule we have" -- EasyJet CEO
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@FirstSquawk Ahhh 1.5 Billion barrels lost is now only 149800000000. Thank you soooooo much
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A South Korean vessel, the Universal Winner, carrying 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude oil, has passed through the Strait of Hormuz and is bound for Ulsan.
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@JavierBlas First real movement since the March shutdown. Beijing and Seoul are playing by Tehran's new transit protocols because keeping millions of barrels stranded without insurance is a commercial disaster. Backchannel diplomacy is moving faster than the military posturing.
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Multiple oil tankers are attempting crossing the Strait of Hormuz (via the Iranian shipping lane), including 2 Chinese VLCC and 1 South Korean. All are carrying non-Iranian oil.
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@FirstSquawk -9.1M barrel draw is triple the expectation. That's enough to crimp any near-term rally in crude, especially with refiners already running cautious. Demand signal just got a lot quieter
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US API CRUDE OIL INVENTORY SHIFT ACTUAL -9.1M (PROJECTION -3.4M, PRIOR -2.188M)
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Export bans will come into the equation if the Strait remains closed thru mid-June
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According to @Axios, Iran has given Washington an updated proposal for a deal to end the war, but the White House believes it is not a meaningful improvement and is insufficient for a deal.
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