@VixCrushFridays @leadlagreport Man, it's hard to have intelligent conversations on this platform.
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Rhys Watkins
116 posts
Rhys Watkins
@ALWL2026
Read an economics paper not a chart.
Katılım Kasım 2025
69 Takip Edilen27 Takipçiler
@DarioCpx Why do you think the price of the underlying asset is being crushed?
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Have you ever seen this many call options being bought before the start of a weekend while the price of the underlying is being crushed?
This is what happened last Friday in the WTI futures options market 👇
JustDario 🏊♂️@DarioCpx
Well… guess what? The aggressive OTM buying of these specific crude oil futures OTM call options continued on Friday🧐 - 1.3k calls at 103$ WTI strike - 3.4k calls at 105.5$ - 5k calls at 115$ - 2.6k calls at 130$ - 1k calls at 135$
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Buy everything you need before Monday night.
• Food (2 weeks minimum)
• Water (every container you own)
• Gas (full tank + spare cans)
• Cash (ATMs go empty first)
• Batteries, candles, flashlights
Most people won't see this until it's too late.
Get prepared ASAP.
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@clementlefert Can someone actually explain to me what happened this morning.
I am an economist and I have never seen anything like this in a physical futures market.
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@stockdatamarket Actually, we are back.
I held so we are good.
This market is unbelievable!
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PAKISTANI SOURCE PER AXIOS SAY WE MAY HAVE 50th PEACE DEAL THIS WEEKEND.
DETAILS ARE GOING TO BE ANNOUNCED AFTER THE MARKET CLOSE AS USUAL
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
🚨🇮🇷🇵🇰🇺🇸Iran delivered on Thursday to the U.S. through the Pakistani mediators its response to the latest U.S. amendments on the agreement to end the war, a regional source tells me
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@MichaelPBento Honestly it feels like we are no mans land.
Oil up, inflation up and market up.
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Everyone was getting bearish but I am like.. hold my beer lemme buy the dip $SPX
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@ThePowerAudit @WarMonitor3 My grandfather was in the Navy and fought in the Pacific. He didn't talk about it much but the service was always a huge part of his life.
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My grandfather was a combat engineer with the 4th Marine Division on Iwo Jima, one of the first off the boat clearing mines for the assault waves. He was one of the lucky ones, escaping with a Purple Heart. He never spoke of it again. He wasn't a Christian before the battle, but he met the Lord in a foxhole there and spent the rest of his life as a pastor.
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What was your relatives role in WW2?
I will go first my great grandad fought as an RAF pilot flying anti submarine machines hunting German U-Boats near Malta.
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@ThePowerAudit Any big asset moves today for potential preparation?
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@jthousandaire @JohnNosta @his_eminence_j @RonanFarrow @sharongoldman @NewYorker @andrewmarantz Understand your viewpoint but the jobs have to be completely eliminated for AI to justify mass implementation and high service costs.
The business is run on operations.
If the AI can not run the actual option than no ROI and no implementation.
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@ALWL2026 @JohnNosta @his_eminence_j @RonanFarrow @sharongoldman @NewYorker @andrewmarantz I know this old but I’m sure CEOs will happily sacrifice everyone’s health and safety to use a 95% accurate AI instead of paying pesky humans.
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The reporting on OpenAI and Sam Altman that I've been working on for the past year and a half, for @NewYorker, with @andrewmarantz: newyorker.com/magazine/2026/…
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@Bogachan_1971 Use critical thinking to understand what I said above.
This isn't just fake paper to everyone.
Futures contracts were created for a specific purpose.
Consider the fundamental purpose, consider timelines, consider risk.
Fundamental don't lie.
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@Bogachan_1971 Also please consider the fundamentals of what these contracts actually represent.
This is not just owning a piece of something, this is physical ownership of a commodity.
I am not a trader but I have negotiated and executed futures contracts for industrial manufacturing.
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WTI #OIL futures.. open interest at bottom...
If you study this chart, u will see that oil price gets depressed when futures contract roll to new one... most of the time.
First observe how little is getting pyhsical delivery... this is a paper contact.
Why does it go down as it expires and rolls to new one? It is because of ETFs... usual suspects like BlackRock charge you something called "slippage".... lets say May contract goes down to $80 and new one trades only a dollar off.. whereas it was 4-5 dollar off before... they roll u there.. for push the calendar spread down, they hit the current contract.
They do this in nearly all ETFs... much worse if levered ETF. If u have VIX ETF called UVXY... u lose 40% of your money even if VIX stays same... u get charged like a gyro every month.. go check it out.... legal theft.
It is much more expensive for US Treasury to use Trump's lies in the middle of contract month... like now.. this is why Trump's lies have really no effect today... but, when we get closer to May 19, it will change... so after May 10, stay away or be alert, book more frequently...
Do not forget... Western contracts are mostly paper, make-believe contracts and hedging in the future will be mostly done in China.... in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore.
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@tleilax___ @HFI_Research Because people have no critical thinking left and are social media headline reading uninformed bystanders.
The rest is just propaganda to keep the current system from failing.
The market will catch up with reality.
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Iran managed to shut down in an orderly fashion its production before. After the cancellation of the JCPOA by Donnie, and also during Covid.
No idea why people think it would bring catastrophic damage now.
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@colin_gladman What are your thoughts on earnings as a trader?
I'm an economist and have noticed the trend of pop and sell on tech earnings the last 6 months.
How do you think this will play with the current market?
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@ThePowerAudit By the way I'm an economist who specializes in mathematical game theory.
It's all about playing the next move.
GO.
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@ThePowerAudit I agree with most of what you wrote but we diverge on where things are going.
I believe the likelihood of continued escalation is over 50%.
America fumbled on Iran and I believe it will be looked back as the key event that shaped China's history.
Hope I'm wrong.
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Iran/US back channel negotiations seem to be very active and ongoing right now.
What to watch for next is a tirade of Truth posts from Trump or statements from Pezeshkian and Araghchi.
Both sides will come out gloating and pumping up the narrative that the other side is surrendering or deliver aggressive rhetoric.
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@yieldsearcher Also regarding wage growth.
Do believe there is any statistical chance of substantial wage increases in the near future?
Please review normalized (for inflammation) wage growth data since 2020.
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How much of this input cost pressure can be passed thru from PPI to core CPI will be the question.
The answer ultimately depends on nominal wage growth.
Rhys Watkins@ALWL2026
@blueprintsmb22 @yieldsearcher I have been posting this supplier price increase since I received it on Friday. No one seems to care.
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@ThePowerAudit The question is will they?
Or was Ukraine, Venezuela, and now Iran part of a larger geopolitical conflict.
Taiwan?
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My view remains no deal is possible without China/Russia forcing the IRGC to capitulate.
x.com/ThePowerAudit/…
Chris Rollins@ThePowerAudit
There is no peaceful end to this stalemate. Iran and the IRGC won't capitulate. And the US is not just going to walk away. This will eventually boil over. Who will fire first truly is the only remaining question in my opinion
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