Aaron Lowe

I'll keep this and look at it towards the end to see how it shaped out

@BradyBGWX I wish we got to see the actual highest peak wind gust from the storm. I know the peak 140 mph wind gust in Cape Coral certainly wasn't the maximum.

Also part of what made the flash flooding and surge so devastating for some spots at the same time tho I’d say as well, but yea I’d probably guess worst of the wind was likely offshore by just 2-3 hours. Which could’ve maybe allowed for a higher peak surge one could argue as well. A storm that packed a punch in nearly every facet

Look at the mesovortices in Category 5 Hurricane Ian about to make landfall just W of Cape Coral FL 9/28/22 Velocities over 200mph radar detected(just aloft) NOAA flew a drone into eyewall of Ian recording a 216mph wind gust Landfalled shortly after as a strong Cat 4 Hurricane and was a top 5 costliest Atlantic hurricane all time.

@iCyclone I know you never chase in Hawaii, but it would be interesting to see if you would chase a hurricane like Iniki in Hawaii, because to get you there in time, I feel like it'll have to be, a know it's coming for sure type of deal.

No, a #hurricane isn't gonna hit #Hawaii. #FAUSTO is unraveling & will reach the islands as a hawt mess if it's lucky. As I always say, Hawai'i is not hurricane-prone. They get 'em almost never (3 times last 150 years). Might there be impacts there? Sure—maybe. A hurricane? No.

@MattDevittWX Always skeptical about 1914, no satellites back then only land and shipping reports. Still, a season like 2013 this year would be welcoming.

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a metric used to compare activity of tropical systems. And so far we're at just 2.6 ACE with two tropical storms. To put things into perspective...Hurricane Ivan alone in 2004 had 70 ACE and the entire 2005 season had 245 ACE. The least active hurricane season on record finished with just 3 ACE in 1914.

@AndyHazelton Hopefully a weak tropical storm or depression sneaks through with all the close in development, nothing strong, but just enough to give us a couple days of good rain.

It has continued to be a rather anemic rainy season here across much of SE Florida, particularly in South Dade and the Keys. We had a late start, a good run for a bit in late June/early July, but the middle part of July has been quite dry. About all we're getting are brief showers off Biscayne Bay in the Easterly flow. Subseasonal modeling doesn't show much relief, with below-average precipitation shown across much of the region through August. This is one of the (few) downsides of the suppressed tropical season due to El Niño, with subsidence across the Atlantic and Caribbean.

@MattDevittWX @NWSKeyWest I mean they're building is built to withstand a category 5. Probably the safest on the island if required to stay and work during an event.😅

Hey @NWSKeyWest, you guys hiring? 😜

Hurricanes. Tornadoes. Thundersnow. And 40 years of unforgettable moments. 🌪️ @JimCantore's passion for meteorology has helped viewers better understand the power of weather. Congratulations on 40 years at The Weather Channel, Jim! 💙⚡

Uncharted Territory! El Niño means The Boy, but this El Niño is certainly El Hombre! In the chart below 2026 is the white line, far above all others for the Tropical East Pacific water temps that define El Niño. The latest forecast calls for an event so record shattering that it stays above historic levels for 6 months! That’s insane. 90% of our models now forecast a historic event - something we’ve never witnessed. By now you’ve certainly heard about the positive effect of El Niño - less Atlantic Hurricanes. Love that! But here’s the issue… it also means a super strong subtropical jet stream in late fall/ winter across the Deep South and #Florida with likely frequent severe weather/ Tornado 🌪️ outbreaks. It’s not hyperbole. I was on-air live during Central Florida’s worst #Tornado outbreak in 1998’s strong El Niño. It felt like every week during that season we had severe weather during normally quiet winter. It’s not a guarantee, some El Niños just produce extra rain, but honestly the strength of this one makes severe weather more likely. So, despite this El Niño keeping hurricanes in check, the winter may the opposite. Nothing to worry about, just something to be aware of. #elnino

@MattDevittWX El Nino really taking its hold over the Atlantic

TROPICAL UPDATE: Compared to two days ago, most models have lowered odds. You can especially see the trend below in the traditional, physics-based European model. Unlike others, the AI European model still loves the idea. Current odds, however, remain small, but not impossible. Regardless of development, will be a good soaker with higher rain chances for the Northeast Gulf.

LIVE Special Edition of Talking Weather: El Niño and YOU x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@MattDevittWX Just 4-6 this year would be crazy😅. Since I was born I don't think we've had a season with that few.

Least active hurricane seasons on record in the satellite era. Will 2026 make the list? Worth noting that even the least active season in 1983 had destructive Hurricane Alicia along the Texas Coast. Houston definitely remembers it. All it takes is one. Hope for the best, always be prepared just in case.

@MattDevittWX Maybe this will be a rare year where if Florida doesn't get hit by one of the few storms to form this year, you'll have better storm chasing opportunities in the winter 🤔

60 to 80 knots of high wind shear anyone? The Caribbean is a tropical ghost town right now (that's a good thing).

@AnthonyDuarte03 I was thinking we will get around 11 or so like 2015, but we shall see. Anything off of Africa this year likely won't survive the trip. A storm or two like Joaquin nearby is what to watch if at all.

Colorado State University (CSU) released its updated forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season yesterday, July 8, and continues to call for a below average season with 9 overall named storms (when the average is 14), 4 hurricanes (when the average is 7), and 1 major CAT3+ hurricane (when the average is 3). This forecast includes Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed back on June 17th. We are not currently monitoring any particular disturbances for tropical development over the next seven days across the Atlantic basin, but how rare is it for us to have only had one named storm up to this point in the season? Not rare at all! The second named storm does not typically form until July 17th, according to climatology.

@ATLAreaWx I'm still wondering if this season will be close to 2015 numbers. I think that one was also forecasted to only have 8-9 named storms and we reached 11. Something I think about considering it's not the 70s or 80s and the waters are on average warmer. 8-12 is my bet

It’s crazy that the last time we had a true below average season was back when I was in Middle School. Some of yall were elementary

@DylanFedericoWX @webberweather Wasn't for Bermuda and the Bahamas though

@webberweather 2013 - 2015 was so boring

Lol, it’s obvious some of y’all have never seen a below average Atlantic Hurricane Season before.

Am I the only one who finds it odd that some meteorologists are excited or rooting for one of the strongest El Niños on record? Sure, we get help during hurricane season, but it's not all sunshine and roses...especially during the winter with severe weather.

@MattDevittWX 8 named storms that is

@MattDevittWX 2014 only named storms and Bermuda got a direct hit that October by 2 hurricanes in 6 days. The next year 2015 with our so called godzilla el nino gave us 11 named storms and the Bahamas Hurricane Joaquin. Wild weather will likely be coming either way.