Ry🅰️n O'Connor

SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE is now only $19M away from becoming the first movie of 2026 to cross the $1 BILLION mark at the global box office.

$ASTS - If you are new to AST SpaceMobile, this is an excellent podcast episode to get you started. @AboveAvgOdds and @PiranhaCapital explains it. youtube.com/watch?v=L1qeSD…

$ASTS: "While investors obsess over quarterly metrics that literally cannot exist for a business still under construction, they’re missing the forest from the trees: AST is building the financial equivalent of a global utility that will generate massive, recurring cash flows for decades. The question isn’t whether AST has revenue today. Rather, the real question is whether you can recognize transformative infrastructure before the cash flows become obvious to everyone else." - Ryan O'Connor, Crossroads Capital @AboveAvgOdds

$ASTS 🅰️lright. Full bull brained thesis time. Based on this update and everything we know about the pipeline, I honestly think people are massively underestimating how quickly New Glenn's cadence could ramp. We already know Booster 5 is basically ready, there are reportedly around 10 second stages in work, Boosters 3, 4, and 5 are close to operational status, refurbishment is targeting roughly ~6 weeks, and Boosters 6 and 7 are already moving through production. If execution stays clean, I think 7–10 New Glenn launches this year is absolutely on the table. Now here’s where my ASTS brain goes completely off the rails. My guess is 4–5 of those flights end up being AST BlueBird missions, and I would not be shocked if at least one of those launches carries 6 BBs at once. I’m actually being conservative assuming 4 sats per launch instead of 6 because the company already stated they could hit their launch targets with a handful of F9 launches and a handful of New Glenn launches to get to roughly 45 satellites. The math gets stupid fast: 5 Falcon 9 launches x 3 BBs = 15 sats 5 New Glenn launches x 6 BBs = 30 sats Total: 45 satellites That’s why this feels so important to me. It suddenly feels like both companies are hitting escape velocity at the exact same time. AST is ramping manufacturing, shipments, and constellation deployment while Blue Origin is finally turning New Glenn into a true operational launch system instead of a science project. Feels like the bottleneck between factory floor and orbit is finally breaking.

LFG! Shigeru Miyamoto: “with the achievement of Super Mario Odyssey, I think we've gotten everything we wanted out of the Switch system. Up to now we've released new [Mario] titles with the advent of each console; I'm excited to see how the current team will handle that”

It’s almost as if Bloomberg saw the massive Switch 2 doubling console sellouts in Japan after the pricing news and realized their previous conflated negative manufactured narrative of a 30% production cut looked ridiculous, so they had to reverse course and go positive. Absolute clown show.

1/ Our Q1 2026 investor letter is now available: crossroadscap.io/investor-lette… In Q1 the Fund returned +4.2% bringing the Fund's since inception CAGR to 17.1%. Accredited investors can sign up to receive fund updates here: crossroadscap.io/contact-us Follow us @CrossroadsOnX

$ASTS A great quote from Crossroads Capital Q1 2026 update letter (ASTS is one of their largest holdings): "The gap between being right and being rewarded is where most investors lose their nerve. " crossroadscap.io/investor-lette…

Japan Hardware Sales (5/11 - 5/17) 1) Switch 2 - 217,922 2) Switch - 21,392 3) PS5 - 9,243 4) Xbox Series - 431 Before the price increase, Switch 2 sales have gone beyond holiday mode. Source: Famitsu

What if you could see exactly when Merlin Labs $MRLN is about to ship? Not guess from press releases. Not wait for the next earnings call. Actually see it. Aircraft by aircraft. Sortie by sortie. Hour by hour. The certification testbed flying at 4am ET. The KC-135 returning to KOQU after a six-hour exercise. The new Dynamic Aviation King Air added to the fleet last week. Today I'm releasing MERLIN INTELLIGENCE — a live OSINT terminal for $MRLN that turns 182 days of public ADS-B archives, every SEC filing, every contract, every patent, every Merlin Labs job posting, every $MRLN social signal into one operator-grade view that updates itself in real time. shawarmacapital.net (check your spam for the login code) What it shows right now, live: · 52 disclosed Merlin / Dynamic Aviation / KC-135 testbed tails on a 2D map + 3D Cesium globe with real Esri satellite imagery, atmosphere, day/night terminator, dynamic lighting, motion trails behind every airborne plane. Click any aircraft — the globe flies to it. · 5-source ADS-B quorum (airplanes.live · <adsb.fi> · OpenSky OAuth2 · adsb.lol · geo-radius). Circuit breakers. Anti-flap cached fallback. Last-known-good persistence. Never blanks. Never silently breaks. · 607 flights captured. 615 airborne hours. 21 unique aircraft tracked across 182 continuous days. Today alone: 9 sorties, 15.7 hours, 7 active tails. · The signal nobody else surfaces — cargo vs cert vs military breakdown. N208B Big Red (US cert testbed) · ZK-MLN (NZ cert testbed) · ZK-MLO (NZ Super Cargomaster) · KC-135 pool (USAF refueling). All-time: 377 cert / 316h, 223 military / 290h, 7 cargo / 8h. Peak month: March 2026, 150 sorties. · 24h replay scrubber — drag back to any moment in the last 24 hours, both 2D map and 3D globe lockstep to that timestamp. Click any flight in the log, scrubber jumps to takeoff and plays at 60×. · Every OSINT layer in one place — 20 real SEC filings (8-K, 10-Q, S-1, SCHEDULE 13G live), 31 active job postings classified by department (Autonomy · Mission Autonomy · Flight Autonomy · MRO · Certification · Test Pilot), 4 SBIR contracts, 25 filtered Stocktwits messages (pump-and-dump glossary stripped, bullish/bearish sentiment bar at the top), 50 OpenAlex academic papers citing Merlin work, 24 NWS alerts at fleet airports, METAR for every fleet airport, 5 upcoming catalysts with clickable source URLs (SEC EDGAR · AUVSI XPONENTIAL · USAF KC-135 autonomy demo · FAA Type Cert · Dubai Airshow), 8-K MATERIAL red badge on item 1.01/2.02/5.02/8.01 filings, insider net buying summary, 50 Reddit posts tracking the wider conversation. · SSE push channel — every new flight, every new filing, every new tail-alert fires into the browser within seconds. No polling. No refresh. · 4 cinematic themes that persist across reloads. Looks right on a 4K monitor and a 280px-wide Galaxy Fold. Why I built it: every public Merlin Labs signal is sitting in plain sight, scattered across ADS-B archives, EDGAR, USPTO, FAA databases, NTSB incident logs, NWS feeds, Substack discourse, Stocktwits sentiment. Nobody was assembling it into one operator-grade view. Now it exists. What @NotMattGeorge and the Merlin Labs team have shipped over 182 days is visible from public data alone — and the certification testbed sortie cadence (N208B + ZK-MLN + ZK-MLO peaking March-April 2026) tells the story before any press release does. All paid subscribers get full access. $MRLN shawarmacapital.net — Shawarma Capital · OSINT Division

Would hard second the June 2009 Nomad letter as providing some of the most crucial teachings for investors to absorb. Focus principally on the attributes suggestive of enduring business success and ignore transitory noise; exceptional businesses tend to be frequently mispriced because market participants underweight the items that actually drive long-term value; once identified - get in early, concentrate, and hold.

True

@spacanpanman TAM !

$ASTS: 🚨SPACEX SEES $740 BILLION TAM FOR STARLINK MOBILE "Our Market Opportunity. We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market (“TAM”) in human history. We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled solutions; $1.6 trillion in Connectivity across $870 billion in Starlink Broadband and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government; $26.5 trillion in AI across $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications. For illustrative purposes of sizing our addressable market opportunity, we exclude China and Russia from our global estimates."

$ASTS RIP shorts! 😎

$MRLN from the equity fund manager that has pounded the table on $ASTS from the lows with in-depth DD. The DD for MRLN: crossroadscap.io/insights/the-l…

[任天堂HP]スマートフォン向けアプリ『Pictonico!』を5月28日（木）に配信。本日より事前登録も開始。 あなたの写真が、さわって遊べるミニゲームに早変わり。映像を公開しています。 #Pictonico #ピクトニコ pictonico.nintendo.com/ja/index.html

$ASTS: ABSOLUTE CINEMA™️

The future of air power lies in autonomous platforms. At CNBC CONVERGE LIVE, Merlin CEO Matt George noted that although we’re not necessarily behind our adversaries, we don’t have the definitive lead, and it’s crucial to invest in those capabilities. Read this recap as Matt shares how the U.S. military’s $75B budget for autonomous platforms and drones paired with adopting technology quickly can make a change. cnbc.com/2026/04/23/the…

SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE ($964M) has officially surpassed A MINECRAFT MOVIE ($960M) at the global box office. It’s now the 2nd highest-grossing video game adaptation of all time, only behind… SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE!