Zachary Drake | zdrake314 on Threads

@JoTrader4 I am a former $APP employee, and I'm long APP. I don't claim to know anything about short term stock movements or technical analysis. But I know the mobile ad tech space very well and I think APP is very well positioned, has a proven ability to execute, and is very focused.

$APP Who's still on the APP train? Looks to be consolidating above the 325MA. Shorter term MA's rising. 200MA above on reduced supply. Support/resistance area here. Nice last ER and outlook. If APP keeps hitting >50% growth with 80%+ margins after the June rollout, sentiment could improve fast. If growth slows or scrutiny increases, volatility stays high. Share your thoughts!

@FundosInvestor Depending on what day that was, it might have worked out quite well for you!

この前 $APP 買ったんだけど、数量を間違えたみたいでポートフォリオ占有率No.1になってしまった。 責任とってしっかり頑張って欲しい。

@DroidHustlerOG @Ad_Quant @JCJC915661 Vector? All of it? Really? How? I guess you’re a parody account, so perhaps I shouldn’t be engaging.

@zdrake @Ad_Quant @JCJC915661 Vectors going to take it all eventually even if it gets downplayed right now short /medium term

Is this why $APP stock is dropping like a rock? support.google.com/admob/thread/4…

@Ad_Quant @JCJC915661 Yes, I certainly know about AdMob and Meta Audience Network. But those networks have been pretty anemic in mediation over the past few years. I’m wondering when they will invest in improving their mobile bidding tech like $APP with Axon 2. Even $U has Vector! It’s embarrassing.

Google and Meta have been trying to compete seriously for years. What are we talking about? AdMob / Meta Audience Network…these are not new initiatives from big tech. These are 10+ yr old businesses that have had incredible amounts of resources thrown at them . They can’t compete with $APP efficiency and ability to pivot quickly. Too much politics at Google and meta to move at the speed an $APP does.

@TwentyCapital @BagholderIQ @DoucheBag168 I still have some $SNAP from my very depreciated RSUs. I would love for them to go back up. But I’m certainly not counting on it.

@zdrake @BagholderIQ @DoucheBag168 If an takeover bid is made, he better get it signed. He has some fiduciary duties here!

Is $APP still building a social media platform?

@BagholderIQ @DoucheBag168 Also, the cultures are completely incompatible. Trust me, I worked as a Solutions Engineer at both companies. Couldn’t be more different. $SNAP is LA, $APP is Silicon Valley. Laid back vs. intense. Touchy-feely vs. heads down. A partnership might make sense. Not acquistion.

@DoucheBag168 They should just buy $snap while it’s so cheap

@DoucheBag168 I am pretty skeptical of this effort. I don’t doubt $APP could build the technical infrastructure. But why would people join? What would it offer that existing platforms don’t? Why would APP be better at getting people, community, and content than anyone else?

@mehtapraful123 @roanokecap I don’t think the community of $U game developers is large enough to build a social network big enough to interest $APP. I’m pretty skeptical of APP’s rumored attempts to build a social network from scratch: I’m sure they could build the tech, but why would people join?

@zdrake @roanokecap Definitely think $APP has a better shot at monetization so getting that data would be helpful. Also, the universe of game developers who are on $U would probably easily migrate to a social app just for gaming - so $APP can build on the $U user base. Thoughts?

Or $APP announcing acquisition of $U??

@mehtapraful123 @roanokecap How does owning $U help $APP build a social network? I could understand buying $U to get game engine-derived data. I think APP has a better shot at monetizing it than U. But I don’t think APP wants the distraction: E-commerce is potentially bigger than anything U could offer.

@roanokecap Are you saying from a market power perspective? In that case, all they will need to do is show a divestiture plan for some of the pieces. I think $U gets them an edge on the social angle Adam has been talking about...

@mehtapraful123 Hmm…as someone who has worked at both $APP and a company now part of $U, I don’t think this makes sense. The game engine business isn’t that profitable, and the ad business has mediation and an ad network, both of which APP already has better versions of.

Here is why the $APP acquisition of $U is compelling. Creates a giant in the gaming vertical (though no market power). They could divest some parts as needed. Will allow $APP to create a social platform as well and truly OWN this vertical. Math is pretty straightforward: - 100% stock at 35% premium (stock only to get $U management and shareholders to participage in upside) - ~$150-200mm of run-rate synergies from cost and rev - Close likely by year end and then some divestitures. - Accretive on all fronts.

@Ad_Quant @Nietschecapital @PabloDBCapital One of my clones must have escaped the confinement facility. I’m glad he’s found employment as an analyst. To facilitate differentiation, I have longer hair and a much geekier Zoom background.

@Nietschecapital @PabloDBCapital Why does Martin Yang look like @zdrake …

@RedwoodFounders @WaterworldCapi1 $APP CEO has been on something of a media blitz over the past several days. He’s been media shy before, but I think the company has realized it’s a disservice to shareholders for the CEO not to be more prominent, especially when may people don’t understand what AppLovin does.

@WaterworldCapi1 I’m more curious why there’s so many $APP pods. Which one was this ?

The $APP pod was interesting but I thought his argument that gamers would view ads as entertainment ala $META was total nonsense. I think gaming ads are annoying for any game and not anywhere in the realm as an Insta ad. Pod was too much history and nothing on current biz.

@rubicon59 There’s pressure from some of the investors/jnfluencers that $APP CEO needs to be more high-profile now that $APP is a bigger deal and subject to short seller attacks. $APP market cap to name recognition ratio is a lot higher than for similarly sized companies.

Why is $APP CEO suddenly all over influencer podcasts just before earnings?

@Ferry815196 @ariaradnia I’ve been afraid of this for a couple years, but it hasn’t happened. Somewhere at Meta and Google, a VP is begging, “Just give me 40 machine learning engineers and a pile of GPUs and I’ll kick $APP’s ass!” So far, they have been denied, as those resources are needed elsewhere.

@ariaradnia Arent you afraid of $APP being blown out of the market by the big guys?

Stocks I don't own that I'm bullish on $NOW $MA $NFLX $META $RDDT $APP $GE $ADYEN $WISE

@saylordocs Congress should be banned from trading on individual stocks. There's broad, bi-partisan support for this.

Politician Nancy Pelosi v/s the greatest investor of all time.

@Jasonsmys @Nietschecapital For $500 USD/hour, I'll talk you ear off about the mobile ad tech industry!

@zdrake @Nietschecapital I really appreciate the insight! I find the industry fascinating, but it’s so hard to learn a lot from the outside when you’re not living and breathing it, so always great to hear operator perspectives

@Jasonsmys @Nietschecapital As far as e-commerce goes, the buzz I've heard is good, but my feeds are pretty pro- $APP. If you listen to Josh Chandley of Wildcard games on YouTube and LinkedIn, he says in his game portfolio AppLovin is already showing more e-com ads than Meta and Google, even on Android.

@zdrake @Nietschecapital I got you. I’d love to know your thoughts on how salient the Meta threat is right now and what you’ve heard about the eComm platforms recent performance

@Jasonsmys @Nietschecapital ...Recently I've started to hear a few inklings of Meta bidding more aggressively on iOS (outside of the January false alarm). But mainly it's been nothing. I don't know why, but can speculate on some of the strategic impediments.

@Jasonsmys @Nietschecapital I guess I can post some teasers here, but I can't give away all my expertise for free! * I've been waiting for the Meta (and Google) shoe to drop on AppLovin for years. And it never does. They are one of the few companies with the weapons to fight $APP. But they don't. Why not?