Alex Turner

New from me with @NRLatimer @VivekSubbiah @DrBlytheAdamson @KRAbrams We discuss considerations when applying methods for transporting comparative effectiveness evidence generated using data from countries other than a HTA agencies’ target population link.springer.com/article/10.100…

@carentaylor @elyob @agilepredict agilepredict.com/%3D/

@elyob @agilepredict Can you see so far ahead?

Tomorrow's Prices: 26th March Overnight low ~17p Morning peak ~28p Afternoon low ~22p Evening peak ~46p

@CrwbanEryri @agilepredict And also well windy

@agilepredict I'm guessing that it's sunny enough like it has been over the Weekend.. But being a weekday, there is more energy demand.

Tomorrow's Prices: 7th April Overnight low ~ 15p Morning peak ~ 29p Afternoon low ~ 14p Evening peak ~ 42p

@BucksCycle @nowtvman @agilepredict With battery storage, I've saved 10p/kwh on Cosy vs Agile this month

@nowtvman @agilepredict Me. No EV or heat pump. With storage, it's still cheaper than the fixed rate I was on, and doubtful I'd have saved much (if anything) with Flux.

Tomorrow's Prices: 8th February Overnight low ~ 21p Morning peak ~ 30p Afternoon low ~ 26p Evening peak ~ 47p

@vini_singh_ Nice work! You may be interested in our paper on the effects of crowding in EDs (onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…), and subsequent work by some great ex-colleagues (sciencedirect.com/science/articl…). Examining how impacts differed by patient characteristics perennially on the to-do list.

@The_PlugSeeker What car do you have? Is this possible with most EVs?

Time to fully charge my 56kWh EV battery on cheap green overnight electricity. So cheap at present I am PAID to use it! (Cost -1.16p to 65p/kWh) However from 4pm I will be at home and my car will feed back some of that free green electricity ⚡️ back to my home when it would have cost me otherwise cost me 17.5 - 31p/kWh. This is beauty of V2G / V2H technology. My car whilst parked otherwise doing nothing is reducing peak strain on grid, and helping my house use stored overnight electricity. @OctopusEnergy @g__j @Indra_rt @raimonick

Fantastic to see new in-depth evidence on the impact of Greater Manchester devolution being published in Social Science and Medicine today. It investigates the whole system impact of the reform across 98 outcome measures. @HealthFdn @NIHRresearch sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

@john_actuary I had the same thought. But unless you currently have 20% of S&S in UK equities (unwise), then this change will force you to increase allocations into UK equity (and so will increase capital inflows UK companies). Not a bad policy imho.

Have I got this right, an extra £5k ISA allowance for U.K. only investments? So surely you just distribute your portfolio so the U.K. element is in the extra 5k, and you get an extra 5k allowance without actually investing any more in the U.K.?

@InvertTheWing If we get Gallagher, and once eveyone is fit, what do you think will be Ange's starting 11 and formation?

Every target Ange Postecoglou has wanted, he has gotten. Conor Gallagher next.

📢Published! An approach to select outcomes for evaluating whole systems reforms, using @WHO @OBShealth Health System Performance Assessment (HSPA) framework with an application to Devolution in Greater Manchester @GM_ICP @ARC_GM_ Read it here: tinyurl.com/2hfhu3mr

Congratulations to @PhilipBritteon and co-authors, whose paper was named as one of the @rcgp highly commended research papers of the year. A fantastic achievement! Read the paper here: thelancet.com/journals/lanpu…

@jappleby123 @rocks_stephen @ONS Yep, and higher rates of readmission following surgery: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

The number of older people (65+) living alone has been rising steadily for nearly a decade, overtaking those under 65. @ONS project this will continue to rise Could be a challenge for NHS as older people living alone have lower wellbeing and higher health care use

What a band. youtube.com/watch?v=EVVHxg…

@ManuellGomes Congrats Manuel!

Three feelings right now: PROUD: a beautiful hike from humble beginnings! FORTUNATE: to be doing what I love.. EXCITED: A new beginning.. not an end. A heartful thanks to my family and colleagues who shared the journey. 🩷🙏

@TheRockRevival_ @kianlufc Class. In love with this live version though: youtube.com/watch?v=EVVHxg…

Wunderhorse playing ‘Teal’ in The Bodega in Nottingham tonight. What a video 😍 🎥 @kianlufc

@VictimOfMaths Agree. Fantastic work (again) from the ONS team, but as you suggest I don't think non-COVID-19 mortality meets the requirement that negative control outcomes be "not plausibly be related to the treatment of interest". Maybe hosptialisation for trauma/injury is a better option?

... I have no doubt that there *is* residual confounding, but there are also other plausible mechanisms that might increase non-COVID deaths among vaccinated groups (e.g. under-diagnosis of COVID, sequelae of COVID infections). Is there a good reason to rule these out entirely?

This is important and outstanding work from @ONS here providing real-world estimates of COVID vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation and death that control for all sorts of potential confounders: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

@AdanZBecerra1 @stephensenn @ADAlthousePhD @f2harrell Depends if race is an effect modifier. If it is, RCTs will generate unbiased sample ATEs (SATE), but SATEs will not equal population ATEs (PATE). If external data on the target population is available, methods can adjust SATEs to approximate the PATE: annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.114…

Hi #EconTwitter! Interested in 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 using synthetic control methods? Check out this new #Econometrica paper by Florian Gunsilius (@UMich)! Useful for estimating causal effects on aggregate units when you have access to data at a finer granularity.

A few of my favorite memes in 2022:

@ManuellGomes Yep!

@Al_Turner_ Gosh.. thought this had been resolved in the 2000s!

Important paper. Great reference if using Poisson, two-part models, or OLS on untransformed Y (over OLS on log- or IHS-transformed Y) when estimating marginal effects on Ys with a mass point at zero. nber.org/system/files/w…