Alamee🅱️a
1K posts




NEW: @EricBalchunas & I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher. Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion

market recap after 45 days (just about the same as the Trump election market top period) 1. Alt Season : The past ~45-day cycle gave us a meme-driven alt rally. There was zero innovation, no strong belief—just memes pumping. I expected fundamental tokens to lead, but they underperformed hard again. In the end, it wasn’t innovation, it was another "echo bubble" type rally. 2. Launchcoin Meta: Not innovation-led—just a mix of timing and mechanics. Unlike Virtuals, only Launchcoin moved, not the ecosystem. Random onchain coins ran, but it was short-lived. 3. What triggered the alt rally? 1. Short squeezes on low caps 2. Cornered supply + MM-manipulated pumps (VC OTC setup) 3. A few real demand was $HYPE That's it. 4.Where do we go from here? Two scenarios: 1. BTC breaks $120K with volume → another wave of alt rally, new narrative forms 2. Or macro fails to deliver new narrative → equities top out → SPX heads to 5.3–5.5k range Crypto has front-run from the bottom 74k with the tariff bounce →from last week’s altcoin dump could be pre-positioning ahead of equities dumping. 5. Macro view update: Tariff worries are behind us. CPI isn’t a major threat right now (still being watched, but not disruptive). → So the market was in a clean reset phase, waiting for a new catalyst. That new catalyst might actually be the Moody’s downgrade. While it didn’t cause a major nuke yet, it’s already triggering bond selloffs, albeit mildly for now. This is crucial—because when bonds sell off, yields spike, and that can pressure equities in a much bigger way. Historically, downgrades have been significant: 2011 S&P downgrade = S&P -8% 2023 Fitch downgrade = S&P -10% The fact that we’re starting to see similar signs now could make the downgrade a much bigger narrative over the coming weeks.



notable domains that are at risk: pendle.finance karak.network compound.finance hyperliquid.xyz dydx.exchange thorchain.com axelar.network vertexprotocol.com hop.exchange polymarket.com yieldyak.com


🚨🇺🇸BREAKING: OPENAI APPOINTS FORMER NSA HEAD PAUL NAKASONE TO BOARD OpenAI has appointed Paul M. Nakasone, retired US Army general and former NSA head, to its board of directors. Nakasone, who led the NSA from 2018 to 2023, will join OpenAI's Safety and Security Committee. He will help improve AI’s role in cybersecurity by detecting and responding to threats quickly. His appointment follows concerns over safety culture at OpenAI. Source: The Verge

















