(((Alan Tonelson)))
120.4K posts
(((Alan Tonelson)))
@AlanTonelson
Founder of RealityChek - a blog covering economics, national security, tech, & their intersections. Also checking in regularly on the general human condition.
Riverdale Park, MD Katılım Ağustos 2012
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Illinois voters nominate an African American in the Democratic US Senate primary, they leave the Congressional Black Caucus' favorite - one of their own - a distant third, and CBC members are furious because the wrong African American won. SMH
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Link to above: alantonelson.wordpress.com/2026/03/19/wha…
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ICYMI, my new RealityChek post reports that although that last official release marked US economic growth way down, it continued justifying a thumbs up for the deficit reduction effects of Trump's tariff-heavy trade policies.
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A finding that "the efficiency of credit at generating economic growth [in China] may be declining even as the pace of credit creation slows." Largely b/c "banks" are increasingly "lending to inefficient state-owned enterprises & investment pools linked to local governments."
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The @AtlantaFed's widely followed US GDP tracker today pegged 1Q US real economic growth at a meh 2.3% at annual rates. Down from yesterday's 2.7%. Next update: March 23.
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The headline figure for the @philadelphiafed's manufacturing survey for March rose for the third straight month and is well into expansion territory. So is future confidence. Post-Iran figures. And Trump's tariffs are killing US industry, @JoshBoak?
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@thirdgenwidget @RCPolitics You're definitely right that Trump's approval ratings have worsened over the last week and a half. And Americans will remain unhappy with him as long as oil prices remain high because he didn't make the case for the attacks effectively.
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@AlanTonelson @RCPolitics These are things that I'd prefer not to be right about... but what we see now is the cutoff date is into March, so no pre-bombing data in the average... while there's still very early bombing data in the average, which still inflates the output.
realclearpolling.com/polls/approval…
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.@RCPolitics daily polling average has Trump's approval rating today at 10.7 percentage points underwater. That's his best such score since January 13's 10.5 percentage points.
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"The head of the Securities and Exchange Commission is facing fresh pressure from lawmakers to restrict Chinese companies from accessing US capital markets." Great that the pressure's bipartisan, but why has a hostile China been able to raise money in US capital markets at all?
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According to @FreedomHouse, "A mere 21 percent of the world’s population now lives in a country rated “free” — down from 46 percent in 2005." Wait!!!! So this can't be blamed on Trump????
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Coming up at 4 PM EST on @AJEnglish on the economics of the Iran conflict.
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Link to above: alantonelson.wordpress.com/2026/03/19/wha…
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My new RealityChek post reports that although that last official release marked US economic growth way down, it continued justifying a thumbs up for the deficit reduction effects of Trump's tariff-heavy trade policies.
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Wow! MIT & University of Chicago economists found that US "workers in communities that were more exposed to competition from Mexican imports saw a significant shortening of their life spans after [NAFTA] went into effect in 1994"! Great catch by @AnaSwanson. HT @NeilMunroDC
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