
Alessandro Lacedra
7.6K posts

Alessandro Lacedra
@AlessandroLaced
Bachelor of Science in Mathematics for Finance, complexity, heterodox economics, Italian. - 'Love is wise, hatred is foolish' (B. Russel)






























Weather sniper on Polymarket turned $186 into $6,630 with one bet on Wellington He bought YES at 1.4¢ on a temperature event the actual forecast said had 9% probability The math is just Bayesian inference applied to weather contracts Polymarket gives you a prior - the market price q. NOAA, KMA, and NWS publish posteriors - the actual forecast probability p̂ When p̂ >> q, you have an arbitrage gap Edge ratio: (1 − q) / q q = 0.001 → 999× per winning trade q = 0.014 → 70× per winning trade q = 0.017 → 58× per winning trade Real probability just has to clear 0.5% to print His best snipes: $13.84 → $6,851 (Lucknow 39°C @ 0.1¢, +49,414%) $23.54 → $6,146 (Atlanta 58-59°F @ 0.2¢, +26,014%) $186 → $6,630 (Wellington 19°C @ 1.4¢, +3,463%) The market reads the headline. The bot reads the model output

wealth managers putting your money in an index fund







