Algomatic Trading

This is Portfolio #6: The Multi-Commodity Trend Portfolio. 5 markets. 14 years of backtesting. It turned €0 into €115,124, winning less than half the time. Here's how it works:

I usually think of my long-term portfolio as the “stable” one. The one that’s diversified. The one that should feel safer. But periods like this challenge that idea. Most assets are down. Volatility is elevated. Correlations spike. And suddenly, the long-term portfolio doesn’t feel that stable anymore. At the same time, my systematic trading portfolio is doing the opposite: • Low exposure • High cash • Strong performance in this regime It’s designed to adapt. Not to hold. It makes me wonder: Is diversification actually reducing risk… or just spreading it across assets that move together when it matters most?

@investingidiocy Depends on the style tbh. 9 months is a very long drawdown for a MR system but for a TF it's very short.

Imagine thinking 9 months is "the long term" I have food in my freezer that's older than your drawdown

@GoshawkTrades The skill of knowing how to properly trade systematically and what to expect from a system has never been more valuable. A market where already 95% of everything you see if overfitted will get even worse…

Make it stop. 21.4 Sharpe... Guys come on

@RHerman How far did u backtest this? Tradingviews backtesting engine is not really well-known for being the best:) I can backtest it from 2006 on PRT if you want.

@AlgomaticTrade Well, Same as python backtested result. Thats why converted it into a strategy on trading view. Once confirmed - decided to forward test it.

I wasn’t planning to build an algo model. But I accidentally found something interesting while backtesting. And the numbers surprised me. So of course… I went deeper. The idea started as a simple observation in $NQ futures. A very specific time-based behavior that kept repeating in the data. At first I assumed it was just noise. So I tested it. Backtest range: Jan 1, 2020 → Today Results: • 1410 trades • 77.9% win rate • Max portfolio drawdown $1,880 At that point I still assumed: “Probably curve-fit.” So I did the only thing that actually matters. I built a fully mechanical strategy in Pine Script and tested it again. Same logic. Same rules. No discretion. AND THE EDGE STILL HELD. — The model is extremely simple. Every day at exactly 2:00am New York time the system gives one trade on Nasdaq. No prediction. No analysis. No chart watching. Just: Long or Short. — Execution rules: • 1 micro contract (MNQ) • TP: $300 (150 points) • SL: $300 If price reaches +$250 I move stop to +$200 locked profit So the outcome becomes: • +$300 win • +$200 secured profit • -$300 loss — Backtests are one thing. Markets are another. So I started forward testing the system live. A dedicated prop firm evaluation account LUCID running the model exactly as designed. No overrides. No discretion. Just execution. — Day 1 of forward testing (today) +$300 System followed exactly. Goal of this experiment: Can a simple mechanical model pass a $50k prop firm evaluation trading one trade per day? Every day. 2:00am New York time. The indicator decides. — I’ll be posting results publicly. Wins. Losses. Drawdowns. Everything. Because most traders don’t fail because their strategy is bad… They fail because their execution is inconsistent. This experiment removes that excuse. — Let’s see if the edge survives real markets. Would you trust a system that trades once per day at the exact same time? #AlgoTrading #FuturesTrading

Agree, trading is extremely hard! Since 2023 I have around 52% winrate with 470+ trades. Being profitable as a trader is also just the first step, scaling and improving the performance of your trading is where the real journey begins. A lot of beginners think that when you reach profitable you are done, ready for retirement. That’s actually when the disciplined daily work as a trader begins, the losing period before that was just a tutorial.

It sure seems like every online trader is a fraud and that this whole industry needs to burn. The big-name influencers are frauds, the funded trader affiliates are frauds, even the small nobodies are frauds. There is one point that I think is very important to underscore: This dynamic exists because being consistently profitable at trading is THAT hard. Not even to make millions, but to just make $200k/yr consistently. So if you EVER see someone only posting wins or selling a lifestyle or talking about how their followers are all banking…. RUN FOR YOUR FUCKING LIFE! And if you ARE able to make a consistent living trading, even with the ups and downs, know that YOU ARE FAR MORE TALENTED THAN YOU IMAGINE! If you feel inferior but are able to support you and your family by trading, know that you are a FUCKING HERO! Every pro trader I know struggles. Tends to have 1-2 months per year of drawdown. Tends to have a <70% daily win-rate. Yet go ahead, ask Grok to analyze what percent of pnl posts by Patrick Wieland or Matt Coward are wins. The response is all you need to know. 95%+. When you see the funded trader influencers or any trader only posting wins, just know: IT IS ALL AN ILLUSION DUE TO BROKEN INCENTIVES BECAUSE REAL TRADING IS THAT HARD!

@AtcoTrader @investingidiocy 😂

Reading @investingidiocy book Leveraged Trading (which is really good). *meanwhile looking at the portfolio which is 350%-ish net long* New ATH in double standards for me 😇

Yesterday I wrote about my journey since I started trading with my fully automatic portfolio. Some of the strategies I have been trading since 2023 can be found on my Substack: algomatictrading.substack.com

@TheArtagonist No, for the full access to all Substack strategies you need to get the premium plan.

@AlgomaticTrade Is it possible to access the full entry and exit parameters of each strategy in this link by subscribing to the 29 euro/month plan?

Strategy Tracker Update: New Addition + Fresh Monthly Stats If you've been following along, you know I maintain a performance tracker for all the algo trading strategies I cover on my Substack. Good news, it just got updated. Strategy #15 is now live in the tracker. I've added it alongside all the existing ones. On top of that, I've refreshed the monthly performance stats for all 14 existing strategies so everything you're looking at is current. 👉 algomatictrading.com/strategies

@Erik_Hansen_ Bra inlägg. Detta är varför jag personligen tror att det är enklare att fånga större rörelser under flera dagar med swing trading snarare än att endast försöka fånga intradagsrörelser. Dessutom blir kostnaderna mindre.

En blogginlägg om ett märkligt fenomen på Stockholmsbörsen: erikmartinhansen.substack.com/p/overnight-ef…

🚨 TRADING HALTED IN KEY CONTRACTS ON THE LONDON METAL EXCHANGE

@MisterLowRisk @IBKR Will do!

If you are a Swedish trader using IBKRs new ISK account and would like the base currency to be in USD instead of SEK I urge you to send them an email. The more people who insists on this the more likely it is they will do it. Thanks! @IBKR

@burningpremium True, but it will always hurt yourself so creating rules for deciding this is a great solution.

@AlgomaticTrade i've built systems that automate this entire framework. the problem with asking yourself 'is this outside expected variance' is that you'll always answer in favor of yourself

The Real Edge Not smarter strategies. Not better indicators. Not faster execution. Discipline to follow tested rules during drawdowns when everyone else panics.

This was a huge game changer for my trading!

My best advice for all systematic traders is to size the strategy compared to the portfolio realistically. Sure the vola can increase a lot of very fast but if you weight the strategy to like 10% of your portfolio it shouldn't break anything even with a lot of surprise vola. You can't guard against every situation, that's overfitting. You can guard against most vola jumps with vola targeting but not everything.

@AlgomaticTrade Agree that static sizing kills accounts. But volatility targeting can also amplify size into calm markets right before vol mean reverts higher. How do you guard against sizing up into a vol regime shift?