Allen Cates

📌 This Week in Copper- Market Developments and What to Watch Copper closed Friday at ~$5.87 on COMEX, marking a third straight weekly gain, but the ceasefire-driven rally is already fading. Weekend talks in Islamabad failed, and a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz signals renewed escalation. Hormuz matters beyond oil: ~50% of global sulfur flows through it, a key smelting input. With the DRC (~15% of global supply) exposed and Kamoa-Kakula already below guidance, sulfur constraints could compound supply risks and hit the market suddenly. Macro remains stuck: CPI ran hot on energy, core softened to 2.6%, and consumer sentiment plunged to historic lows. The Fed is boxed in, leaving copper to trade on geopolitical headlines, not fundamentals, for now. ✅ US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses and Hormuz Blockade Begins: The April 8 truce sparked a brief rally, but Iran reinstated strait restrictions by Thursday, and talks collapsed over the weekend. Trump has now declared a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian port traffic. Oil is back above $100, and the sulfur-critical strait remains effectively closed (na2.hubs.ly/H04RJfc0) ✅ Goldman Cuts Copper Forecast and Flags DRC Sulfur Risk: Goldman cut its 2026 copper target to $12,650/t and raised its surplus estimate to 490,000 tonnes on weaker growth from the energy shock. It also noted DRC supply risks from Hormuz sulfur disruption are not modeled, leaving the surplus vulnerable if the blockade persists (na2.hubs.ly/H04RJrp0) ✅ LME Stocks Hit 8-year High as Demand Signals Soften: LME copper inventories hit their highest level since 2018, while TC/RCs in concentrate markets remain near zero. COMEX stocks are still above 500,000 tonnes. The split between loose refined metal and a strained smelter pipeline is easy to read as bearish, but it isn’t (na2.hubs.ly/H04RJkR0) 📌 What to Watch This Week ✅ 4/14/26: PPI & Core PPI (Mar)— Watch breadth of price pressure beyond energy ✅ 4/14/26: Bank earnings— GS, JPM, C, WFC ✅ 4/15/26 – 4/17/26: Fed speakers daily ✅ 4/17/26: Industrial Production (MoM, Mar) 📌 Kilo Reserve’s Take The 4% Wednesday rally is already fading. The ceasefire has turned into a blockade. The sulfur/DRC angle is the real story, a slow-building supply shock while the market watches short-term price action. Goldman’s 490,000-tonne surplus was based on $70 oil, and that assumption is already wrong. The structural case remains intact: too few mines, declining grades, and an energy transition that doesn’t pause for failed diplomacy. Volatility is the cost of being early. #KiloReserve #Investments #Copper #IndustrialMetals #Inflation #IranWar #HormuzBlockade

📌 This Week in Copper- Market Developments and What to Watch Copper stayed in a tight $5.40-$5.73 range last week, but underlying dynamics are shifting. The 50% tariff hike had little impact—likely already priced in, with softer demand offsetting bullish trade flows. Supply isn’t tightening so much as shifting, while the real squeeze is in concentrate markets, where refining charges have dropped to zero. Fundamentals remain strong, but macro factors like rates and upcoming CPI/FOMC data are driving near-term price action. ✅ Trump Strengthens Copper Tariffs to 50%: On 4/2/26, President Trump signed a proclamation strengthening Section 232 tariffs on copper imports, applying a 50% tariff to copper-intensive products and 25% to derivative goods (na2.hubs.ly/H04JqNC0) ✅ Ivanhoe Stuns Market with Deep Kamoa-Kakula Output Cut: Ivanhoe cut 2026 guidance to 290,000-330,000 tonnes and lowered 2027 outlook, with reserve grade down 28%. The stock is down 24% YTD. Kamoa-Kakula is a top-tier deposit, so when it underperforms, there’s no easy replacement for that lost supply (na2.hubs.ly/H04Jr460) ✅ Copper Increasingly Trading as a Macro Hedge: Copper is acting more like a macro asset, driven by tariffs and sentiment, with LME briefly topping $14,000/t on speculative flows (na2.hubs.ly/H04Jrdj0) 📌 What to Watch This Week ✅ U.S. ISM Services PMI (Mar): Prev: 56.1; Est: 54 ✅ Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Feb): Prev: 0%; Est: -0.3% ✅ FOMC Minutes ✅ Core PCE (MoM, Feb): Prev: 0.4%; Est: 0.2% ✅ GDP Growth Rate (QoQ Final, Q4): Prev: 4.4%; Est: 0.7% ✅ Personal Spending (MoM, Feb): Prev: 0.4%; Est: 0.6% ✅ Core CPI (YoY, Mar): Prev: 2.5%: Est: 2.6% ✅ CPI (YoY, Mar): Prev: 2.4%; Est: 3.3% ✅ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Apr): Prev: 53.3; Est: 52 📌 Kilo Reserve’s Take The 4/2/26 tariff headline is noise. Tariffs shift copper flows, not supply. The real issue remains structural: too few mines, lower grades, and long timelines. Redirecting supply to the U.S. may actually tighten markets elsewhere. Ivanhoe cutting 90,000 tonnes from Kamoa-Kakula matters more. High-grade supply is fragile, and there’s little margin for error. Copper’s growing role as a macro trade adds volatility. Price swings may reflect sentiment, not fundamentals. The long-term case is unchanged. Volatility is the cost of being early. #Copper #IndustrialMetals #CopperInvesting #Tariffs #InvestmentAdvice #KiloReserve

Copper is getting pulled into the broader commodities sell-off. But let’s be clear — this isn’t a copper problem. This is a macro reset: Oil spikes → inflation fears → higher-for-longer rates → risk-off across assets. Copper is just caught in the crossfire. The underlying reality hasn’t changed: We still have constrained supply, declining ore grades, and long-term demand driven by electrification, infrastructure, and AI. Markets can reprice fear quickly. Physical fundamentals don’t change overnight. For long-term investors, this is where opportunities tend to show up — not when everything feels comfortable. At Kilo Reserve, we’re paying close attention Copper joins gold in broad commodities sell-off. There's a worrying reason behind it cnb.cx/4bTz00b

This point being made by Robert Friedland is really interesting. Everyone is talking about oil issues in regards to the Hormuz Strait and rightfully so. However, that is not the only issue - sulfur is needed in the compound to extract copper.

Jeff Currie from Goldman Sachs is probably the best person I know regarding commodities. His take on oil prices:

@Cu_Giant @IanHarrisMining @JeremySzafron As the physical economy becomes more copper-intensive, the gap between financial exposure and actual metal availability becomes more important. Infrastructure ultimately runs on physical materials, not just paper markets.

Frank Giustra and @IanHarrisMining sat down with @JeremySzafron at PDAC 2026 to talk about the coming copper squeeze and why the market may still be underestimating it. Key takeaways from the conversation: • A major infrastructure disruption in the DRC recently exposed just how fragile global copper supply chains can be. The DRC is one of the world’s largest copper producers. • Copper demand is accelerating as electrification, AI data centers, and aging power grids drive a structural increase in energy infrastructure investment. • Very few large, near-surface copper deposits remain undeveloped globally — making Tier-1 assets increasingly strategic for future supply. • Recent industry transactions have highlighted a significant valuation gap between the price paid for copper resources in acquisitions and where many large copper deposits currently trade in public markets. As Frank Giustra puts it: the majors will need to replace reserves and there aren’t many places left to look. Watch the full conversation: youtu.be/0SJe0dLzNKA?si… $CGNT.V $LBCMF

📌 This Week in Copper- Market Developments and What to Watch Copper had a volatile week, with March futures ranging from about $5.81 to $6.14 per pound. Prices briefly rose above $6 before easing late in the week as higher energy costs and geopolitical tensions added short-term pressure to commodity markets. Despite the pullback, copper remains near historically high levels, reflecting a balance between near-term macro uncertainty and a strong long-term demand outlook. Interest rates, the U.S. dollar, and global energy markets continue to influence short-term price moves. Overall, the market is navigating short-term volatility against a backdrop of structurally strong demand expectations. ✅ AI Infrastructure Reinforces Copper’s Long-term Demand: As AI infrastructure expands globally, copper is emerging as a critical input for the digital economy. Data centers require large amounts of copper, reinforcing expectations for sustained demand growth tied to AI na2.hubs.ly/H049nY40 ✅ RBC Reiterates Bullish Outlook on Copper Prices: RBC analysts remain bullish on copper despite recent volatility, citing strong investor demand for commodities and other real assets na2.hubs.ly/H049pSG0 ✅ Geopolitical Risk and Energy Costs Pressure Industrial Metals: Copper prices faced short-term pressure as rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions added volatility to commodity markets, though underlying demand fundamentals remain strong na2.hubs.ly/H049llm0 ✅ China Continues to Shape Global Copper Demand Dynamics: China remains the most influential player in the copper market, driving a large share of global consumption and smelting. Its policy decisions, infrastructure spending, and industrial demand continue to shape global copper prices and trade flows na2.hubs.ly/H049kLl0 ✅ New U.S. Supply Milestone at Florence Copper Project: Taseko Mines announced the first copper cathode harvest from its Florence Copper Project in Arizona. Once fully operational, it’s expected to produce about 85 million pounds of copper annually na2.hubs.ly/H049pqV0 📌 What to Watch This Week ✅ U.S. Inflation Data (Wednesday): February Consumer Price Index and core CPI data will be closely watched for signs that disinflation continues, with implications for metals markets ✅ Housing and Construction Data (Tuesday-Thursday): Existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits will provide signals on construction activity, an important driver of copper demand through electrical wiring and infrastructure ✅ Key U.S. Economic Releases (Friday): Core PCE inflation, GDP revisions, durable goods orders, and consumer sentiment data could influence macro sentiment and commodity positioning heading into the weekend ✅ Iran Conflict Developments: Escalation involving Iran remains a key geopolitical risk for commodity markets ✅ Strait of Hormuz: Continued disruption to this critical energy shipping route could push oil prices higher and add volatility across industrial metals #KiloReserve #InvestmentInsights #Copper #IndustrialMetals #IranWar

Stan Druckenmiller’s current positions: - LONG Korea + Japan (+ Brazil) - LONG Copper (AI + tight supply) - LONG Gold (geopolitics) - SHORT Bonds Portfolio is no longer "AI-driven". He’s bearish on the Dollar but bullish on the US economy with disinflationary growth.

@AdeptMarket This is why we built Kilo Reserve. To invest directly in the metal!

COPPER IS THE NEW OIL ❗️❗️❗️ Oil powered the 20th century. Copper wires the 21st. EVs use ~3–4x more copper than ICE vehicles. Renewables require multiples of copper per MW vs fossil fuels. Grid expansion is copper intensive. Electrification is copper demand. Copper is the new oil. Agree or still stuck in the past?

@PeakFinInv This is why we built Kilo Reserve! Own the metal - starting with Copper

It's very possible that in five to seven years from now, people are going to be looking back and saying, "I really missed an opportunity." Commodities relative to equities are at their lowest level ever and tend to do well when the dollar starts weakening. Are we about to see commodities return to favor after a 10-year break? Full report: peakprosperity.pulse.ly/stvfgbj1qf

#Copper 👀

This copper bull market will take longer. The time from discovery to production is increasing. - 2005-2009: ~12.7 years - 2020-2023: ~17.9 years In other words, discoveries made in 2006 are only now making their way into production. Copper remains one of my favorite long-term picks.

@JasonL_Capital Look at buying copper at Kilo Reserve!

Buying copper today is like buying gold at $2,000/oz before it ran to $5,000. AI data centers use 10x the electrical load of traditional facilities. EVs need 4x more copper than gas cars. Grid infrastructure is decades behind. Supply can't keep up. Ore grades are declining, new mines take 10+ years to permit, and the deficit is projected to hit 10 million tons by 2040. At $5.90/lb today, this is still early. 5 copper names I'm watching: 1. $FCX - Largest publicly traded copper miner 2. $SCCO - Highest margins in the industry 3. $TECK - Pure-play copper after spinning off coal 4. $RIO - Scaling copper production through 2030 5. $BHP - Top global producer by volume Bonus: $COPX - Global X Copper Miners ETF for broad exposure The electrification trade runs through copper. Every cable, every transformer, every data center. This metal is the backbone of everything being built right now.

Kilo Reserve is live.📈 This is physical copper - not an ETF or futures. Buy, hold, and trade real copper cathode with full ownership, 24/7 buy/sell access, and live position tracking - all from your dashboard. Real user example: 2,382 lbs (>1 ton) held on-platform. Sign up & build your reserve: kiloreserve.com

Rick Rule: Copper is the next bull market - Copper offers the best risk/reward setup - 7% of global copper supply has vanished - In a market already in structural deficit “The copper price has a coiled spring aspect to it” At the same time, it is getting increasingly harder to find new copper deposits. - Grades are lower - Mines are deeper - Risks are rising As a result, exploration and mine development costs are surging. Copper has a bright future

@Thecryptocount9 @CopperBullish You can buy and hold copper cathode at Kiloreserve.com

@CopperBullish Where to buy copper shares? I don't want to trade. I just want to buy the share price and hold.

#Copper - Remember where we came from 12 months ago folks. Still up 30% and more to come!

@CopperBullish Still short supply and increasing demand as we move forward!!

Copper just pulled back to ~$5.95/lb after hitting record highs this month — but forecasts are screaming higher: $11k–$13k+/ton in 2026 as AI data centers, EVs & grids devour supply.Don't chase paper ETFs. Own real COMEX-grade copper cathodes with Kilo Reserve — secure, audited, trackable online.Your hedge against the metal powering tomorrow starts here: kiloreserve.comWho's stacking physical copper in 2026? 👇#Copper #InflationHedge #RealAssets #Electrification

Copper deficits are piling up - From 2027 onward, deficits widen through 2040 - From 2037, annual deficits exceed 10 mt - That’s ~50% of today’s mine supply Cumulative deficits reach ~80 mt, or more than 3 years of global mine supply. Copper’s supply-demand model is broken.

Copper just pulled back to ~$5.95/lb after hitting record highs this month — but forecasts are screaming higher: $11k–$13k+/ton in 2026 as AI data centers, EVs & grids devour supply.Don't chase paper ETFs. Own real COMEX-grade copper cathodes with Kilo Reserve — secure, audited, trackable online.Your hedge against the metal powering tomorrow starts here: kiloreserve.comWho's stacking physical copper in 2026? 👇#Copper #InflationHedge #RealAssets #Electrification

I have heard many explanations for the rally in the copper market over the past 24 hours... upside call option granters being caught wrong-footed, collar hedging by miners alarmingly out of the money, even aggressive buying of $20,000 per tonne strike calls for June and December at notable premiums ($42 and $160).... However, it all started... what ended up happening was a cascade of margin calls. Adding fuel to the fire, there was the unmistakable smell of opportunistic capital... There were certainly funds leaning into the thin overnight liquidity, pushing price discovery uphill.... I also heard of panic among certain Chinese smelters who had prudently pre-priced concentrate deliveries... which may be delayed, or possibly not show up at all...? Faced with the reality of deferred supply, they did what markets always force you to do when assumptions break: they covered. With the market starved of new copper, with demand electrifying faster than supply can respond, I doubt this will be the last of the volatility... Whatever the narrative, the result is the same