bakes

Don't just accept responsibility, seek it. Accepting a lot makes you robust, seeking a lot sets you up for failures and makes you #antifragile.

@joemccann Fumbled OpenClaw, fumbled USG contract. Could have secured a solid foothold at the top.

So let me get this straight, the guy who complained about China stealing their IP through sophisticated distillation campaigns won’t arm the US government? Got it.

What’s your $SERIOUS animal spirit???

My guy @MalatonKnows means business and is a $serious chad. I stand with him and am blasting the chart daily. Haven’t had this kind of clarity in a while…

I hope everyone with physical was able to take profits. All you needed to do was to take some time off work, go to your home safe or the bank safe deposit box, withdraw, drive to the local precious metals store, park, walk over with a bag full of valuables, pray not to get robbed, wait in line, and eventually sell and hope they could take all your size with minimal slippage. Or if you were lucky enough to have a really large bag, hopefully you ordered an insured courier to pickup your metals and timed it perfectly so that you could sell the top, minus the 1% slippage + fees.

@joemccann Chaotic Fat Tony

"Most men die at 25 but don't get buried until they are 80 years old." My faith in the youth of today is fully restored after reading the best post of the year. x.com/ElishaDLong/st…

Big start to 2026. Here's what launched this week in ORE: 1. ORE privacy pool with @theprivacycash 2. TurboORE with @DeFiCarrot 3. stORE liquid staking token 4. stORE privacy pool 5. stORE became #1 privacy pool on Solana 6. stORE live on @kamino swap 7. X space with Carrot 🧵

It’s good to see volume returning w/ memecoins & ICOs doing well. With coins running, I’d keep an eye out for launchpad coins such as: $PUMP $GP / $BONK $META Most of these coins have bottomed. Think they are primed to run if coins continue to perform well

Most bullish on projects with - PMF - Revs & Deep Treasury - Entrenched Communities - Wide Social Reach - OG Status - History Shipping - Buybacks & Strong Tokenomics $ORE and $GP check the most boxes. Note they’re also at the top of Defillama P/S (mcap / annualized rev fees).

@MMSniperSol @Pumpfun @GraphiteProto

🚨 HERE IS THE ALPHA MOST PEOPLE WILL ONLY UNDERSTAND AFTER IT 10Xs - Thank me later 😉 Everyone crying about $pump should do the math. @Pumpfun peaked around $8B valuation. Now zoom out 👇 @GraphiteProto ( $GP ) is doing comparable revenue to PumpFun months ago… but trades at ~$18M market cap with ~$20M sitting in treasury. Yes, the market is valuing GP below its own cash. That’s not “bearish”. That’s a mispricing. While #crypto sentiment is trash and timelines are screaming “scam”, the fundamentals are quietly screaming the opposite: • Fees growing exponentially • Real revenue (not “potential”) • Aggressive buybacks to start in jan absorbing supply This is distressed-credit type asymmetry hiding in plain sight. Now the real catalyst people are sleeping on 👀 @worldlibertyfi just approved a vote to deploy $130M from treasury to accelerate USD1 stablecoin adoption. Not all of that goes to memes, but a meaningful chunk absolutely will. And guess where WLFI is already playing? 👉 BonkFun 👉 Actively buying coins 👉 In the trenches, not just tweeting Here’s the part that matters: Graphite owns ~40% of @bonkfun That makes GP the single largest beneficiary of: • USD1 adoption • The next BonkFun cycle • On-chain volume flowing back into SOL This isn’t speculation, it’s mechanical. Meanwhile… PumpFun extracted massive value, sold into strength, and now faces US class-action lawsuits. One model is peaking. The other is compounding. Pick your fighter. Execution matters. @SolportTom and team already control ~40% of GP supply. The stated plan? Keep buying. If revenues stay elevated + buybacks continue + sellers dry up… Supply shock is INEVITABLE. Context matters too: GP traded ~$6.74 last summer. Today it’s ~$0.53–0.54. Same ecosystem. More revenue. Bigger treasury. Stronger partners. Do the math. I’m extremely bullish. I currently own ~1.5% of GP and I’m still accumulating. This is the kind of asymmetric setup you see a few times per cycle, when everyone’s distracted, emotional, and focused on the wrong chart. If the market wakes up to what’s already built, and what’s coming next, the repricing won’t be slow. Not financial advice. Just one finance bro pointing at an obvious imbalance. 😉

> When Bitcoin miners fail to mine a Bitcoin in a block, their computational credits don't go to other miners, it gets spent. Correct. And thus when those miners *do* eventually win a block, they're *forced* to sell the crypto reward to make up for their fiat losses and continue mining. The capital paid to electricity companies ultimately gets withdrawn from the value the token via miner sales. Buyers have to offset that selling just to neutralize the downward price pressure from miners. It's not an ideal setup for a "store of value". The big idea behind this ORE redesign was to invert that value flow and redirect miner expenses into the token rather than away from it.

Local bottom on $BTC? ✅ highest vol since April 7th ✅ 2.618 fib downward extension ✅ lowest D RSI since Aug '23 ✅ 36% drawdown from peak

@treybuckingham ⛏️ ⛏️ ⛏️

$ORE only re-introduced itself to Solana 22 days ago! In that time, a lot has happened!! - Market cap grew 4x, from $20M to $80M (peaking above $240M!!) - Holder count grew 118%, from 11K to 25K - Concurrent miner count grew 21x, from 30 to 650 (peaking above 2,000!!) - 24h Protocol revenue grew 5x, from $69K to $350K (peaking above $1M!!) In addition to core growth, Ore’s ecosystem growth has exploded!! Mining P&L Trackers, Analytics, and APIs (4) - gmore.fun by @gmore_fun - refinore.com by @nftimm - ore-mining-tracker.replit.app by @0xKriptikz - ore.monster by @oredotmonster 3rd Party Mining Sites & Extensions (4) - Mule by @RadiantsDAO - rockbet.fun by @CloakdDev - extension by @0xScotchPilgrim - [redacted] coming soon…. - [redacted] coming soon… Games (2) - rockbet.fun by @CloakdDev - Integration with @photofinishgame ORE Treasuries (4) - @colosseum - @RadiantsDAO - @photofinishgame - @OREStrategy Defi Integration (3) - @DeFiTuna - @FlashTrade - @moonshot Videos & Tutorials (5) - @neil_shahani - @SebMontgomery - @DerrickWKing - @KEMOS4BE - @dchapman Thought Pieces (5) - “ORE has solved the original sin of crypto” by @KEMOS4BE - “You've Always Known Something Was Wrong” by @KEMOS4BE - “What is ORE?” by @KEMOS4BE - “So, Is Ore A Ponzi?” By @KEMOS4BE - “Is ORE Mining or Gambling?” by @dchapman We’ve even see copycats pop-up (2) - @bore_supply - @soresupply Lastly, @HardhatChad shared some Ore lore around how the name came to be: - Study Nicholas (Ore)sme, the De Moneta Oh yeah — and @toly called Ore “Money” Bullish @OREsupply

ORE has solved the original sin of crypto. 🧵👇

As Schwager said in Market Wizards "Being wrong is acceptable, but staying wrong is totally unacceptable". If you’ve mid curved $ORE, time for an honest post mortem. Did you read the docs, try it, and join the discord? I fumbled, but I rebought some and more importantly hit the mines hard and for a top 20 unrefined ore bag. Let’s all win forever.

i didn't get to touch on everything in today's space, but these were the notes i took beforehand in case you guys wanna see my thought process re: ORE

@nftimm buyers vs sellers... the state of things right now

$400k of DCA buy orders on $ORE? Standard...

@ThesisInvestor Long but good thoughts. Until recently portfolio construction discipline has been lost for me. Over time new wallets get been created, farming sprawl, etc causes blindness. Applications have driven the bulk of recent gains but it’s been a timing game.

The Balanced Solana Portfolio (reads better on Medium) Portfolio construction is a topic that doesn’t get enough attention in crypto-land. If you scroll on Crypto Twitter, 99% of the content is centered on daily winners and losers rather than the boring task of buying and holding quality positions that will net you excellent returns over a multi-year time horizon. But this question is incredibly important, both for crypto veterans and new buyers: what should you buy and HODL so that you can actually emerge as a long-term winner in this space? I’m going to attempt to answer that question by sharing a framework for what I consider to be a solid, set-and-forget Solana-focused portfolio that both new and old school users can use to achieve solid returns over time (while lowering stress of managing highly volatile assets on the daily). Before we jump in, a required caveat: nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. This post is being shared purely for educational purposes. How you ultimately construct your crypto portfolio is your business! The portfolios that I will be sharing are designed for people who are looking for lower relative volatility, growth over a long time horizon, and passive account management. What is a balanced portfolio? A balanced portfolio aims to maximize risk-adjusted returns over a long-term time horizon regardless of market conditions. If you are overexposed to high-risk assets, your portfolio can experience intense volatility that may cause you to sell at inopportune moments. If you are overexposed to low-risk assets, you may miss out on eye-popping gains or FOMO into the market at inopportune moments. The challenge is finding the middle ground where you can maximize risk-adjusted returns while minimizing the pain of volatility. In TradFi, this is a common construct. Most people who have retirement accounts opt for a “Target Date Fund” approach that constructs a balanced portfolio of global equities and bonds depending on when the user is planning to retire. The portfolio blend skews heavily in favor of equities when the user is young and has time to weather volatility and gradually shifts holdings to safer bonds as the user gets closer to retirement age and wants to preserve assets for spending. The ideal balance in a crypto portfolio is going to depend on two very important variables that will vary from person to person: 1. Where is the market headed over the next 6–12 months? If you think the crypto “cycle” is far from over, then you will want to hold a larger share of high-growth crypto assets. If you think the crypto market has topped and is headed slowly towards the next bear market, you will want to hold a larger share of stable assets. But your balanced portfolio will always hold both high-growth and stable assets. 2. What is your tolerance for volatility, particularly to the downside? If you experience significant stress when the crypto markets dip, you should consider a higher share of stable assets in your portfolio. If you have an iron stomach and a long-term mindset, you can consider a more aggressive portfolio that favors growth assets even if you think we are potentially eyeing downturns in the market. What is in a Solana-focused balanced portfolio? There are four core positions in my preferred Solana-focused balanced portfolio: INF (Growth Asset) If you are bullish oncrypto over the long-term, then you should have ample exposure to “Layer 1 (L1)” tokens of crypto networks that you believe are positioned to capitalize on widespread adoption of public blockchain infrastructure. I’ve covered this extensively in other posts, but I think it’s clear that Solana is in a very strong position for long-term growth due to it’s unique blend of fast transaction speeds, network decentralization, user adoption, and application development. The site whysolana dot com offers a really nice overview of the bull case. To ensure that you are earning the best risk-adjusted yield on SOL, I recommend holding INF, a liquid staking token that earns unbeatable risk-adjsuted yield via traditional proof-of-stake token rewards plus transaction fees from the @sanctumso platform which serves as the liquidity hub for Solana’s hundreds of liquid staking tokens. The chart below shows how significantly INF has outperformed JitoSOL, the most popular liquid staking token on Solana over the last year. Application tokens (Growth assets) I subscribe to the fat application thesis that argues that value will increasingly accrue to applications built on top of blockchains rather than to the underly blockchain protocols. This is already happening. Over the last week, application revenue was $111 million vs. blockchain revenue of $66 million, per @blockworksres. Pancakeswap earned as much revenue last week as all L1 blockchains combined. And applications are still tiny in crypto when compared to TradFi counterparts. It stands to reason that holding positions in the “killer apps” of crypto could be incredibly lucrative (just like it was lucrative to be early to Amazon, Google, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, etc). When I look for application tokens to hold long-term, I’m focused on a few key characteristics: Strong application revenue: Is the application offering something that users are actually paying for? You can monitor this on Blockworks Analytics and DefiLlama. Defensible moat: Does the application dominate in a particular vertical or have potential to dominate in a particular vertical? Can they defend their lead in that vertical? Track record: Is the application/team established in the ecosystem? Have they built a strong community? Tokenomics/Market Cap: Is the application still valued attractively from a market cap and fully-diluted market standpoint? Does the token offer some form of utility or reason for existence? The three Solana-based application tokens I am bullish on based on the above framework over the long-term are: @JupiterExchange (JUP), which is building the everything app for decentralized finance. They have the 8th highest monthly revenue among crypto applications at $25.4 million vs. market cap of $1.25 billion ($2.77 billion fully diluted). That’s an annualized price to sales of 4. They have been the dominant decentralized exchange aggregator on Solana since 2022 despite growing competition (see below). They have a widely diversified portfolio of applications that includes perpetuals trading, lending, portfolio management, wallet, and have an ambitious roadmap to deploy into additional areas. They have built an incredibly active community and have heavily rewarded community members via multiple past airdrops. They are one of the most transparent teams in crypto and their token scored 97.5% on their Blockworks Token Transparency Audit. You can stake JUP to earn additional rewards. Sanctum (CLOUD) is the liquid staking hub on Solana. They have the 85th highest weekly revenue among crypto applications at $1.1 million vs. a market cap of $66 million ($134 million FDV). That’s an annualized price to sales of 5. They also have a very strong, defensible moat as the largest liquid staking provider on Solana, which as an area that has very strong growth potential (and has already been utilized by Digital Asset Treasury companies looking to create their own liquid staking tokens). The team has been building since the early days of Solana, they have a strong and active community, and have implemented futarchy-based governance which adds strong utility to the CLOUD token. CLOUD scores a perfect 100% in Token Transparency Audit. You can stake CLOUD to earn additional rewards. @bonk_inu is the undisputed leader among Solana memecoins. It has an incredible narrative as the memecoin that airdropped to everyone in the Solana comunity during the lowest depths of the post-FTX collapse when SOL dropped below $10 and many thought the chain would never recover. BONK was an instant success and turned many diamond-handed degens into five-figure winners, which breathed a ton of life into a community that was struggling mightily. BONK pulled a second Solana rescue mission by awarding every Solana Saga phone 30 million BONK as a welcome gift. When BONK went on its typical Q4 cook and people discovered that the phone’s BONK rewards exceeded the cost of the Saga phone, the Saga sold out almost instantly (after struggling to sell units for months). The BONK team has done a good job leveraging the token’s mythology and large community to build a stable of profitable applications that add long-term utility to the token (mostly via buy-back and burn mechanisms). Their apps include Letsbonk dot fun a Pump dot fun alternative that briefly displaced Pump at the top of the launchpad charts before crashing down to earth. If there is one token that I will never fade and always look to accumulate on major dips, it’s BONK. You can lock BONK to earn additional rewards. There are many more tokens you may want to consider adding to your application token bucket depending on your interests and conviction level. The ones below are not in my personal portfolio, but are ones that I am monitoring closely: PUMP is the dominant memecoin launchpad and content creation hub. $35 million in 30D revenue, $420 million annualized vs. $1.4 billion market cap (3.3 price to sales, 9.6 price to sales at FDV). They have maintained a dominant market share in the launchpad vertical despite stiff competition. I think this platform is terrible for humanity, but it’s hard to argue with the performance. HYPE is the dominant derivatives exchange and is the highest revenue application in crypto not named Tether or Circle at $100 million in 30D revenue, $1.2 billion annualized vs. $13.8 billion market cap (11.5 price to sales, 34.1 price to sales at FDV). My hesitation here is the steep valuation relative to other applications and very stiff competition (incumbents like Lighter and Binance-backed Aster are trying clawing away market share). Perps Liquidity (Growth asset) This is my favorite way to build a balanced position across major crypto assets. Rather than buying and holding SOL, BTC, ETH, you can lend to a perpetuals liquidity pool which provides exposure to major crypto assets in the pool (SOL, BTC, ETH) as well as trading fees. For example, buying shares of Jupiter Liquidity Pool (JLP) provides exposure to a portfolio of SOL (47%), USDC (32%), BTC (13%), and ETH (8%) that also earns an additional 10–15% anualized yield in the form of trading fees. Advanced users that want additional upside can also loop liquidity tokens for additional yield on platforms like Jupiter, Kamino, and Carrot. My preferred perps liquidity platform on Solana is Jupiter Perps (JLP), mainly due to its stronger volume/fees, but viable alternatives exist on Flash Trade (FLP1) and Adrena (ALP). Stablecoin Yield (Stable assets) TradFi portfolios have a section for bonds to provide users with solid, predictable, positive returns on investment. Crypto portfolios should work the same way by carving out a portion of the portfolio for established stablecoins (like USDC) to earn competitive yield and provide users with liquidity to buy the dip or meet other spending needs that arise. My preferred stablecoin yield venues consist of audited protocols that don’t yet have a token (and may launch a token in the future) and are delivering an exceptional or novel product. My current favorites include: @kamino: Largest money market on Solana and offers unbeatable risk-adjusted returns of 10–12%, mainly thanks to deposit incentives. I’m focused on the Sentora PYUSD vault currently. @DeFiCarrot (CRT): Tokenless lending aggregator that provides diverse exposure to a wide range of yield-generating stablecoin positions and has consistently delivered returns of 8–10+%. @Loopscale: Tokenless order book market that offers several novel stablecoin vaults that currently yield between 9–11% (Use my referral code to access: DsQSu). I’m deployed in the USDC Genesis, USDC OnRe, and hyUSD ONE vaults. @perena: Tokenless stablecoin hub that aims to be the liquidity layer for stablecoins on Solana (like Sanctum is for Solana liquidity across different liquid staking tokens). Currently offering 10–13% for holding USD*, which is backed by a blend of yield-bearing stablecoin strategies (wish there was more transparency on what they held like Carrot provides). (Use my referral code: SWGWLZ) @hylo_so: Tokenless, decentralized stablecoin platform that offers a staked stablecoin product (shyUSD) that has some additional risks compared to standard USDC positions but offers unbeatable returns of 15–18% APY. I’ve shared more about them in an earlier post. Bonus points for locking your shyUSD in Exponent Finance to earn a few additional points of yield and possible exposure to another airdrop opportunity. (Use my referral code: P7BWCG) What about Huma? Lulo? Neutral Trade? Vectis? Synatra? Elemental? Solayer? Jupiter Lend? I’ve been researching and using nearly every stable yield protocol on Solana over the last year. The 5 options I listed above are my personal favorites that I feel offer the best combination of yield, security, future token value, and user experience. But your mileage may vary, so buy what you like! Balanced Portfolio Options: From Bearish to Bullish My favorite part of the balanced portfolio approach is that the components of the portfolio don’t change when the market outlook shifts from bearish to bullish or vice versa. The only thing that changes is the share that each section of the portfolio occupies. You can see a few versions of the “balanced” portfolio below. The optimal portfolio for you will depend on where you see the market heading over the next 6–12+ months as well as your risk tolerance. The portfolios range from Max Bearish (20% growth assets / 80% stable yield) to Max Bullish (80% growth assets / 20% stable yield). Thesis’ Balanced Portfolio (40/60) I think we are in one of the most challenging time periods in crypto that I can remember. Macroeconomic factors seems to be more bullish than bearish. Rate cuts are happening across developed markets. Stocks are performing well, driven in large part by strong earnings and fundamentals among the top companies. AI has the potential to spur a new wave of innovation and profitability for forward-thinking companies. Regulation is declining, particularly in the crypto space. New ETFs are launching soon. And yet, crypto is meandering after an explosion to all time highs over the summer. TradFi appetite has fallen off a cliff after some early year interest. The sector is still bogged down by thousands of mostly useless tokens with inflated market caps. Consumer interest in crypto is as low as it was during the 2022 bear market. There are still no “killer apps” that are growing the pie of crypto users. And there are other high growth trading opportunities that are capturing the attention of savvy traders. I lean slightly bearish at the moment, hence the 40/60 split. I think it’s possible we have topped and that we have a painful and long-winded drawdown in our future. But I also think there’s a chance that crypto creeps higher alongside the broader economy, and I don’t want to miss out on those gains if that is how things play out. This portfolio has two strengths that I find compelling: Every position earns competitive yield. The stablecoin portfolio is earning 8–19% APY, JLP earns 10–15% APY plus growth potential of underlying assets (SOL, BTC, ETH), and INF earns 8–10% APY plus growth potential for underly asset (SOL). These returns blow TradFi out of the water. Conservatively positioned during all-time highs. Crypto hit fresh all-time highs a few months ago and the S&P 500 is at all-time high levels. This is a very tough moment to be fully-risk on given current valuations. I’m personally content to be positioned more conservatively so that a) I can sleep well at night knowing that only 40% of my portfolio has significant exposure and b) I have stablecoins ready to buy dips if I feel like there’s a solid buying opportunity to take advantage of. Conclusion The exercise in this post was to share a relatively simple portfolio construction approach that can work for every phase of the crypto cycle. It prioritizes high-quality positions that can be hold long-term, earn competitive yield, and offer compelling upside via price appreciation and/or airdrop rewards. This portfolio approach also offers simplicity, both for newer crypto folks who are still trying to find their way in a complex environment and for crypto veterans who may be burning out after years of grinding it out trying to maximize ROI via trading and airdrop farming. Let me know what you think about the portfolio in the comments. Which portfolio allocation fits your risk profile? How would you structure your simple crypto portfolio differently? Hope this was helpful. See you next time!

I TP'd the last 40% of my $ORE at $115 (still have a moonbag from mining). Price 10x'd in less than a week since I posted ~$14, but I can't be too greedy here. The LP is so small that if 0.5% sell, the token would drop 24%. Team/Whales should get on that and OTC some and add to the LP to avoid a violent move down. That said I think the concept, the tech, and the tokenomics of it all are great. Looking to get back in with a better risk profile at some point.

Picked up some $virus in anticipation of addicted.fun S2. Looks like it could smash. DdcvRiEs4k2fXbHqeJBS5jgGD93rj1wu6u8WTL4vmBLV