Altcoin Overlord

@Blocksy0717 @CoinDesk @nikitabier shut the fuck up clanker

LATEST: X is working on auto-locking accounts making their first crypto-related post, according to Head of Product @nikitabier.

@ariaradnia only thing is their product sucks

$WIX is a FASCINATING set up right now 1. slow bleed of the core business as vibe-coding disrupts them 2. ABSURDLY fast growth of Base44 cannibalizing the core business and perhaps eventually replacing it Trades at 8x FCF btw

@gudmansachs weird flex but ok

Whilst I drive my regular car and look around me sometimes I think to myself: There’s a very low chance most of these guys driving these nice cars have ever had a $250k + day like I have. If anything, many driving such cars have probably never even had a $10k month.

@d_grimripper "I’m so sorry for your lost"

youtube.com/shorts/O_uSOKC… Unfortunately... It's a banger...

@Beth_Kindig does this factor in potential share buybacks?

Jensen Huang is comfortable saying Nvidia $NVDA can reach a $10 trillion market cap, meanwhile I am comfortable saying Nvidia can reach $20 trillion. This week, I revisit that thesis with new data points showing why the path to $20 trillion has only strengthened over the past few months. Link in bio.

@AlphaMFPEFM @kimmonismus how so?

@kimmonismus The investment in datacenters will be useful even without frontier models in the short term

I did a calculation. Meta invested ~700b in AI overall. ScaleAI acqui-hire ~$14.3 Manus accquisition ~$2-3b several ~100m for hirings. They have invested over $600b in data center. And for some reason they still dont have any upcoming model that could compete with even chinese open source labs. What are they doing?

@aaalexhl i will buy once it goes back to $50 like it does every cycle

Are we still buying zcash or we kinda over it?

@CookerFlips BTC, USDT, USDC, ETH, HYPE in that order

If you had to guess in 4 years What will be the top 5 coins in terms of marketcap

Sequoia’s @shaunmmaguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

@Mr_Derivatives $WMT investors smoking crack

The 17 largest companies and their 2027 Forward P/E estimate. Hard to say it’s a bubble when a lot of them are in the teens…

@Pentosh1 you can only lose 100%, but you can gain 10,000% 🧠🧠🧠🧠

If you lose 1% every day, for 100 days. You will only be down 63% It you make 1% every day for 100 days. You will be up 170% or 2.7x

@aleabitoreddit I feel like it will take at least a couple of years for Optimus to really ramp

Been awhile since I covered $VPG. This was a sensor play for $TSLA Optimus Ramp. Very important breadcrumb this week at the Sidoti Conference: "Potential to scale to hundreds of robots per week by the end of 2026." Kinda sounds aligned with Optimus? No? If we go off their CEO "$500-$1.2k per robot" statement: Not too shabby. But of course, a lot of robotic supply chains are kind of dead money until the actual inflection point humanoids at scale hits. Maybe Unitree IPO sparks some life into robotic supply chains soon?

@gnoble79 it would take you 365 years to make back your money if you invested

Tesla is a $1.3 trillion company that sold fewer cars this year than last year. And fewer last year than the year before. That should tell you everything you need to know. 2 consecutive years of declining deliveries. Down 9% in 2025 to 1.63 million vehicles. The steepest annual drop in the company's history. And 2026 is starting even worse - US sales down 17% in January, Europe down 44% across major markets. France down 42%. Netherlands down 67%. Norway down 88%. BYD passed them as the global EV leader. In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla 2 to 1 last month. The brand is in FREEFALL. Brand Finance measured a 36% collapse in Tesla's brand value last year - down to $27.6 billion, less than half its 2023 peak. In California, their most important US market, share dropped from 11.6% to 9.9%. And the stock trades at 365 times trailing earnings. Let me say that differently: Tesla earned $3.8 billion last year. The market is valuing those earnings at $1.3 trillion. You are paying $365 for every dollar this company earns. The bull case has completely abandoned the car business. It's all robotaxis and Optimus robots now. They discontinued the Model S and Model X. They told investors on the last earnings call to stop focusing on vehicle deliveries and start thinking about "transportation as a service." So in other words: please ignore the business we actually have and value us on the business we MIGHT have someday. Trust me, every time management tells you to look over there instead of over here... LOOK OVER HERE. The car business is deteriorating. Margins are compressing. Competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and a dozen Chinese manufacturers is intensifying quarter by quarter. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is gone, which effectively raised the price of every Tesla overnight. And instead of addressing any of that, they're doubling capex to $20 billion this year - almost entirely directed at AI and autonomous driving infrastructure. So you have a company with shrinking revenue, shrinking deliveries, a damaged brand, and intensifying competition pouring $20 billion into a technology that hasn't been proven at commercial scale. On 365 times earnings. Even if you give them the most generous robotaxi assumptions imaginable (full regulatory approval, nationwide deployment, dominant market share) you still can't justify this valuation. The present value of that optionality doesn't come close to $1.3 trillion when the core business is going backwards. I think this stock goes down 90% from here. Not because Tesla is worthless. They'll sell cars. The energy storage business has potential. But the equity is priced for a future that isn't coming on the timeline the market expects. A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists. I know that sounds extreme. But 45 years of doing this has taught me something: When you can see the seams on the fastball, you SWING. I can see the seams.

@NonLinearRisk @ContrarianCurse Kling, Google Veo, TikTok's Seedance, and Grok are all better and businesses are actually willing to pay to use them Sora made worse videos, had the wrong user base (consumers), and was a cash incinerator, so they're basically accepting defeat

@ContrarianCurse correct me if i am wrong, video/image generation takes up the most memory so probably doesn't bode well for the memory trade?

*OPENAI SET TO DISCONTINUE SORA VIDEO PLATFORM APP: WSJ Hahaha told you. SLOP

@ContrarianCurse they are incredible for making video ads

Videos models have by far the WORST TAM:compute ratio. Said this numerous times. Capability =/= market fit x.com/TheStalwart/st…

@Sandeman52 @BillforTravel @grok negative conviction!

@BillforTravel @grok Well wtf.

Massive conviction!!

@aleabitoreddit + how profitable will it really be long term?

I’m genuinely impressed there’s people out there holding $IREN. Imagine getting close to half the market cap… ~$6B eventually diluted, sold into the open market against every stock rally… then still being bullish? If you’re avoiding $SNDK or $AAOI for 100-200%+ YTD. Because you care more about a company over your own portfolio returns. You’re in the special $AMC bagholding territory.

@fundmyfund @fundrise insane, cant believe I missed this 😭

$VCX indicated $240 x $268 in pre 😅 OMG I wish I had moved everything to this in February when I made my last purchase in @fundrise ($18s) when they announced they were sending it public in 2026. I have some from the $10s from 2024. Bot nothing in 2025. Nice to be in my first meme stock - never had one before. I was buying late last week in the $80s and $90s and been trading around that position daily - "medium size" but medium size going +60% in a day still is helping. I'm trading around it (yesterday bot some small in $111s in pre and sold through the day $150s to $190s). Did confirm the shares from @fundrise held in the 3rd party broker is locked til Sep 2026 last night. Just learned yesterday you could have been buying these in $SOFI accounts for some reason under a different ticker symbol all along - wish I had known that too. I will be selling more today (it's about 120% from entry in pre yest), no clue where this goes as the float is tiny but yeah it's a bit inflated here - probably. Won't be buying any more at these levels just liquidate and set a hard stop loss maybe $180ish from here and raise it daily. Going to have a -40% day here sooner or later but from what level is the question.

@DrJebaim @DeNebulord only reason he's jumping is cause his picks are up so much that they're no longer undervalued lol

Hahah, I can't keep up! I just noticed for a few weeks he said (this is how I recollect it): - $AXTI omg omg best opportunity ever, then a week after - $AAOI most assymetric bla bla, my long, then last week - Omg $TSEM and $SOI are my highest conviction longs etc, - then $SIVE and no mention of others. Since the stocks started jumping again, he can go back at mentioning all of them. Dude is cocky af, TLI 2.0

I made it, friends! The tactic is always mention what's up for that week - ofc it's $SIVE because it's up, but completely ignore $SOI which was pumped as the best market opportunity just a while ago. Today it's not interesting because it dropped massively. This week it's time for $AEVA to be pumped. Allegedly "pandora's box" is not opened today as it's hard to pump on a very red day, but it'll be opened at the first opportunity. I didn't see anyone this similar to TLI for a very long time.

@wintonARK i've had FSD for almost 6 years now and it still misses turns and breaks the law pretty much useless in cities with significant traffic

It really is bizarre. Most of my friends don't have FSD (or a Tesla). And it is the single biggest lifestyle difference between us. They drive their cars. My car drives me. They don't get how much--even at its current capability-level--the product changes life-feel. FSD truly is a mass luxury product. That it is still so narrowly enjoyed is mind-bending.