Andrew Polk

WSJ came to us with a profitability analysis of public Kalshi profiles. Which was inaccurate, because the majority of traders keep their profiles private. So we did the analysis ourselves and gave it to the WSJ. Our analysis showed that Kalshi traders win more than they do on day trading, options, sportsbooks, and futures. It’s the first time we’ve given out that data. We debated whether or not to give it out. But we figured it was better than a shoddy analysis that showed people lose a lot more than they actually do. The WSJ included our points. But instead of looking at our data from multiple sides - yes, majority lose, but prediction markets > day trading, options, and sportsbooks - they kept it salacious as possible. This same framing could have been written about real estate investing or day trading back in the day. Guess we just have to wait a few years until we get more balanced reporting?

The most chilling conversation ever filmed.

are there other pieces of media with as wide a gap between its assumed vibe and its actual vibe as “Saturday Night Fever”?

So apparently The Daily Wire laid off half its staff today. It comes as Ben Shapiro and other MAGA influencers have seen huge losses in engagement and audience retention.