Andy Powell

@lteal @RivettiDiego Most SCDIs have been only recapture and on hard to measure variables, on reform/governance/climate bonds its doubtful they change incentives and most focus only on the good outcome, we may be dealing with new restructuring issues in a few years

Are we sure the incentives and macro effects introduced by these bonds offset the merits of plain vanilla bonds? (liquidity, transparency, budget predictability and smoother restructuring). Official creditors may want to test these creative solutions first..

@eric_parrado @the_IDB Thanks @eric_parrado and thanks to all for the kind comments, a great pleasure to work/interact with you all! Retired from the IDB but not retired, now Distinguished Visiing Professor @WilliamsCollege non residential Felliow @CGDev will post more lateron, happy holidays to all!

After 17 dedicated years at @the_IDB Research Department (RES), our good friend @AndyPowell_IDB is retiring. Andy was a pillar of RES, making key research contributions that guided policy across #LAC. Big congrats and thanks on a job well done 👏

Please find a recent blog with Rodrigo Heresi on #US #bank fragilities and implications for #LAC blogs.iadb.org/ideas-matter/en bottom line: little direct #contagion but could be #macro contagion thru US #growth see Ch 1 flagships.iadb.org/en/MacroReport… Bank Equity Prices by Region

On public debt in LAC, & what to do about it, re: recent IDB flagship, many thanks to @oscarmvalencia @eric_parrado @MauricioCard @eduardocavallo @eduardoyeyati @upanizza @gsandleris @EduardoBorensz1 @arturojgalindo @giulialotti3 @lavellan74 @MariaCe18475450

La deuda en América Latina y el Caribe subió a U$S 5,8 billones (5.8 trillion) gracias a la pandemia. Igual las implicancias son diferentes pensando en deuda pública vs privada. ¡Por favor, ver este blog publicado hoy! blogs.iadb.org/ideas-que-cuen…

Total debt in Latin America and the Caribbean rose to 5.8 tr. US$ (117% of GDP) thanks to the pandemic. Still, the issues are very different for public vs private debt. If interested please read this blog posted today! blogs.iadb.org/ideas-matter/e…

@IvanWerning DRILU "Decelerating rate of inflation with low unemployment" Q: has fed policy actually done anything (yet) or is it all fiscal and energy and other "external" factors?

Just for fun, is there a term opposite to stagflation, just in case (unlikely but...) inflation keeps falling while the economy actually further booms a little bit? What to call that?

@bentossell Not sure, let’s use AI to find out

What are your AI predictions for 2023?

@ojblanchard1 Hmm, if the uk had joined the euro it would have left the euro and I suspect there would be no euro…

A textbook example of how not to design and not to sell a fiscal expansion. While we were worried about Italy, the UK sneaked in. We are lucky that the UK is not in the euro… Otherwise, we would be facing another euro crisis. ☹

A new joint @CGDev @the_IDB report on #Companies in #LAC argues #Firms survived #COVID by cutting #investment, firms’ #capital fell and #debt as high as pre #pandemic, read the #blog bit.ly/3oWzppv and report bit.ly/3vIvS1U @eric_parrado @arturojgalindo

@JFrankelEcon @YGorodnichenko @nberpubs Congratulations @mathpedemonte !!

Congratulations to Coibion, @YGorodnichenko, Kumar & Pedemonte, inaugural winners of biannual Calvo Award for Internatnl Macro, for their ``Inflation expectations as a policy tool?'' @JIntlEc, 124, May 2020. Written in 2019 for 42nd mtg of ISoM (@NBERpubs) scholar.harvard.edu/frankel/intern…

@messinajulian Un gran gusto trabajando con vos estos años, mucho suerte en España!

¡Novedades vitales y laborales! Tras más de 11 años en Washington DC llegó el momento de emprender nuevos retos. Lo más difícil: dejar atrás magníficos colegas y amigos del BID y el Banco Mundial. Gente de una calidad excepcional con la que he aprendido tanto durante este tiempo

@IvanWerning Cars vs runners is not the same as humans vs computers in chess. A closer analogy would be whether a self-driving F1 car can beat Lewis Hamilton. Probably but would we want to see such cars compete between themselves? Likely not, unless crashes were truly spectacular of course!

In Chess, computers can beat humans but have not replaced them. After a bit of hoopla back then, today essentially nobody cares.

@GabrielSnchez17 Vino Hendry: tomar el vino y el queso en una relación constante en el tiempo: covinquegration @GabrielSnchez17

Van varias ideas de vinos por y para economistas: Vino Schumpeter, te pone creativo pero te destruye el hígado Vino Adam Smith, hace que se te vaya la mano pero sin que se note Vino Keynes, hace que sueltes el bolsillo y que te despiertes tapado de deuda el día siguiente 1/

@TimTkehoe @UncertainLars @UMinnPress @BeckerFriedman @noctambulate @TimTkehoe @UncertainLars @UMinnPress @BeckerFriedman got my copies too! Thanks to all and many congrats on the book!

I got my copy! Thanks to ⁦@UMinnPress⁩ and ⁦@BeckerFriedman⁩ for a great job producing A Monetary a Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017! Special thanks to ⁦@UncertainLars⁩ and ⁦@noctambulate⁩

#escienciaytechnologia está ayudando a la #humanidad a derrotar #COVID . Argumento en un blog reciente que con las políticas correctas también puede impulsarse el #crecimiento #inclusivo blogs.iadb.org/ideas-que-cuen…

#scienceandtechnology is helping #humanity defeat #COVID . Given the right #economicpolicy it can also boost #inclusivegrowth, please see my latest blog looking forward to another year of #livingdangerously blogs.iadb.org/ideas-matter/e…

@upanizza Once I ordered Ito's #Oxford #DPhil thesis from the #Bodleian "stacks" (as in Ito's Lemma - part of my PhD being on option pricing/stochastic calculus), believe me your #PhD looks very long...

My undergrad thesis (left) and my PhD thesis (right)

🌎📊 Presentación del informe del @el_BID: Oportunidades para un mayor crecimiento sostenible de América Latina y el Caribe tras la pandemia. 👥 Con @eric_parrado, @eduardocavallo, @AndyPowell_IDB, @SusanaMalcorra e Inmaculada Riera. Aquí👇 youtube.com/watch?v=nK8QON…

"A critical moment for central bank autonomy" please see this recent blog just out, written with @eric_parrado blogs.iadb.org/ideas-matter/e…