Angel Ubide

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Angel Ubide

Angel Ubide

@AngelUbide

Back in markets, global macro. Author of "The Paradox of Risk". Former Senior Fellow @piie & economist @IMFnews. Views my own. Soccer player & coach, A license.

Washington DC/NYC/London/Spain Katılım Nisan 2012
701 Takip Edilen7.4K Takipçiler
Angel Ubide
Angel Ubide@AngelUbide·
@Manuj_Hidalgo @el_pais Sin duda - Tim Geithner, cuando era secretario del tesoro, siempre nos decía que no quería unicornios, quería propuestas que fueran eficientes y la vez políticamente posibles. Lo más difícil de encontrar.
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Manuel Hidalgo
Manuel Hidalgo@Manuj_Hidalgo·
@AngelUbide @el_pais Gracias Angel. Para eso el academicista debe conocer también el barro de la política. El arte de lo posible. No hay nada mejor para modular tus conocimientos que el de la realidad desde un cargo.
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Manuel Hidalgo
Manuel Hidalgo@Manuj_Hidalgo·
Escribo en @el_pais sobre los “errores” de diagnóstico que nos llevan a sufrir costes que se extenderán a través de generaciones por aplicación de malas políticas. Muchos de estos “errores” serán tomados por quienes no estarán cuando haya que asumirlos. elpais.com/economia/negoc…
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International and Monetary Economics Network
There is a lively and interesting debate on the pros and cons of Eurobonds. This new piece is highly recommended (irrespective of whether you agree with it or not): "Eurobonds: Despite objections, they are more needed than ever" by Olivier Blanchard and Ángel Ubide. "The bottom line is this: European fragmentation severely hampers its economic and geopolitical potential. European leaders have agreed to defragment the single market to boost market size and defragment investment to boost productivity. Our proposal complements these actions by defragmenting the sovereign bond market to lower financing costs." piie.com/blogs/realtime… Here is a previous piece by the same authors: piie.com/blogs/realtime… Among many other contributions supporting or rejecting their arguments in favor of eurobonds, this blog post by Hanno Lustig arguing against Eurobonds is particularly recommended: thetwocents.substack.com/p/why-eurobond…
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Angel Ubide
Angel Ubide@AngelUbide·
Do you have questions about our Eurobonds proposal? Riskiness, moral hazard, you name it. We answer them in this new piece @piie
Peterson Institute@PIIE

NEW: @ojblanchard1 & @AngelUbide respond to feedback on their original Eurobonds proposal, clarify what they do & don't actually propose, address criticisms, & even have an FAQ. 💡A year since the proposal, the urgency for Eurobonds has grown. Read: piie.com/blogs/realtime…

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Angel Ubide
Angel Ubide@AngelUbide·
@Brad_Setser @cryptotranny @arvindsubraman Housing busts take at least a decade to absorb, this structural process doesn’t happen in a cyclical vacuum - over time the housing contribution should pick up again, I guess
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Brad Setser
Brad Setser@Brad_Setser·
well, if C contribution is now 2 then sustainable growth absent net exports is probably around 3. from a global point of view, the low level of C v GDP still matters, as it means it takes high I to keep the current account from surging; haven't been able to find a good equilibrium after the property bubble burst imo
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Brad Setser
Brad Setser@Brad_Setser·
@cryptotranny @AngelUbide @arvindsubraman equally clear that the contribution from C growth -- a bit over 2 p.p on average in the official data in the few years -- hasn't been big enough to drive external rebalancing. see the comparable nx contributions esp. in 24 ...
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Angel Ubide
Angel Ubide@AngelUbide·
If you are interested in macro trading, nothing better than this hour long conversation with my former boss and mentor, PTJ - with plenty of bonus items beyond macro
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness

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Phil Stewart
Phil Stewart@phildstewart·
(Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates is reassessing its role and contributions across multilateral organisations but is not considering any further withdrawals at this time, a UAE official told Reuters on Wednesday, a day after Abu Dhabi announced its withdrawal from OPEC. The Emirati official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the country is reviewing the utility of its membership in multilateral organizations broadly.
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Angel Ubide
Angel Ubide@AngelUbide·
@jfjimenoserrano @RLosadT En ese caso, un punto de partida mejor como el actual hara que el deterioro sea menor - eso era lo único que quería decir inicialmente
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Juan F Jimeno
Juan F Jimeno@jfjimenoserrano·
@AngelUbide @RLosadT Si lo haces te equivocarás. Incluso en los mejores escenarios de empleo y con los flujos inmigratorios elevados de ahora, esa ratio va a aumentar varios puntos más de aquí a 2050.
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Angel Ubide
Angel Ubide@AngelUbide·
@jfjimenoserrano @RLosadT Todo es relativo e interpretable. Yo lo leo como una mejora vs counterfactual derivada de la inmigración - y, si tuviera que proyectar el gráfico hacia adelante con la information que tengo, proyectaría una continuación de la tendencia a la baja.
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Juan F Jimeno
Juan F Jimeno@jfjimenoserrano·
@AngelUbide @RLosadT Adjunto gráfico. ¿Tú dirías que la tendencia es decreciente? (Quita salidas de las crisis de por medio 2014-2018 y 2020-2025). Dato-2025 es mayor en 5,5 pp. mayor que el de 2006. E insisto: a efectos de análisis de sostenibilidad de pensiones, lo que importa es tendencia futura.
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Angel Ubide
Angel Ubide@AngelUbide·
@jfjimenoserrano @RLosadT gracias - supongo que la tendencia a la baja del grafico se mantendra con los datos que sugieres. Y creo que estariamos de acuerdo que esa tendencia a la baja mejora los fundamentos del punto de partida vs counterfactual de tendencia plana o al alza, que era mi punto.
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Juan F Jimeno
Juan F Jimeno@jfjimenoserrano·
@RLosadT @AngelUbide 3. Mejores fuentes para este ejercicio son: Pensiones: eSTADISS: Estadísticas de pensiones seg-social.es/wps/portal/wss… Empleo: INE-Contabilidad Nacional 4. Lo que importa para sostenibilidad de pensiones no es datos ahora en comparación con 1995. Es la comparación con el futuro.
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Miguel Angel García
Miguel Angel García@magarciadiaz·
No te creas, me ha sorprendido ver que el gasto ha aumentado 5 pp de PIB desde 2017 y “solo” uno ha ido a pensiones. Donde no ha ido es a inversión pública (1 de 5)
Francisco d la Torre@frdelatorre

@magarciadiaz @elEconomistaes Gracias, Miguel Ángel. El destino del gasto merece un análisis detallado, aunque se resume en una sola palabra: pensiones. Y lo sabes mejor que yo...

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John Müller
John Müller@cultrun·
@magarciadiaz Eres la segunda persona que me señala esto y creo que tenéis razón. Lo peor es que casi cuatro puntos han ido a gasto improductivo.
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Angel Ubide
Angel Ubide@AngelUbide·
This is exactly right: "Berlin and Paris are now viewing Spain as a competitor in the race to become the continent’s industrial core." Decades of investment in renewables are yielding results.
Marc López Plana@mlopezplana

🧭 "Spain’s ability to produce the bloc’s cheapest renewable energy is no longer a local success story but a geopolitical challenge to traditional Franco-German hegemony." My European Compass points towards renewables. agendapublica.es/noticia/20975/…

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