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Rahulya
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Rahulya
@AreeRahulya
On a journey of code and cosmos ✨
NoWhere Katılım Mart 2020
1.2K Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler

@NeecheSeTopper How can you say besharam in the same sentence and then say you were appreciating??
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Bayes’ theorem in plain English:
You don’t have to be right.
You just have to be willing to update your beliefs when new evidence appears.
Most arguments happen because people either never update… or change their minds based on one headline.
Rational thinking isn’t black vs white.
It’s adjusting confidence as better evidence comes in.
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Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?
Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.
For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.
Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.
Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.

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There’s a scene in Breaking Bad where Walter White’s wife realizes he’s made $7.5 million and says:
“There’s no way we can wash this money through a car wash. No car wash in the world makes that kind of money in a year.”
That line hit me. Because it exposes a truth most people ignore: How much you earn is capped by the kind of business you run.
You can work harder, stay longer, even get smarter - but you’ll never make more than what your business model is designed to carry.
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People are comparing AI coding to airplanes, which mostly rely on on autopilot these days, with some human supervision
But I would go further, and say that even us humans fit the analogy
We are mostly autonomous creatures
Our hearts beat by themselves
We mostly rely on habits and quick intuition
But we do supervise ourselves, we can still "steer the ship"
We can manually take over whenever needed, e.g. breathing, trying to change a habit, etc.
But doing things manually sucks, so we prefer relying on our habits and dopamine signals
The fact that even human nature, and nature in general has these patterns baked in is so fascinating.
I love these thought experiments, that tie nature and computers together.
There's clearly value in doing so, given that neural networks are based on brains to begin with
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Really excited for tomorrow!
Let’s connect if you're someone looking to learn Web3 and explore the blockchain space.
As said, see you all tomorrow….
Harkirat Singh@kirat_tw
100xSchool discord is live now - discord.gg/2hY6qygbKQ If you've bought the bootcamp, you can verify yourself in the #verify channel. If you want to buy, you can get it here - harkirat.classx.co.in (EARLYBIRD for 10% discount) Orientation class tomorrow.
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