ArmChairEconomist

@Dom94656454 @Filapek You are dreaming if you are going to get accountants to change from a platform that keeps bookkeeping/payroll and easily synchs to tax in a seamless way - accountants love Xero no matter the cost - and let payday super come - more Xero demand coming

@Filapek I'm an accountant and can confirm Xero's platform can easily be disrupted by AI. The monthly fee is becoming expensive, massive incentive for competition..

Macquarie post Xero announcement of deal with Anthropic (Claude): "ASX Software will not be disrupted by AI; software is the key distribution channel for AI labs. "Despite 25x of EV/EBITDA contraction, both OpenAI and Anthropic have waved the proverbial white flag on the consumer: Open AI is exiting Sora, scaling down Agentic Commerce intentions and focusing on B2B distribution using existing software names." $XRO #investing #software #XJO #equities #stockinfocus

@felixprehn Breakdown

Want the full breakdown outlining the AI meltdown caused by Anthropic, why SaaS companies will feel it first and 7 warning signs before collapse? Just comment "BREAKDOWN" and I'll send it to you. Completely free—no strings attached.

Goldman Sachs just revealed their "buy and sell list for software stocks in 2026". They're not sharing this with retail investors—just their biggest institutional clients. But I got my hands on the full list. Here are their winning and losing stocks for this sector:

@RonShamgar @JohnWickPencil @harrisonpollock $XRO is the number 1 choice of accounting software for accountants in Aus. Why? It’s less clunky and clean. Moreover it integrates with tax software given to accountants -whole practices depend on this software - accountants. Accountants recommend this product

@JohnWickPencil @harrisonpollock $XRO is brand and network effect of accountants - super hard to replicate

So the thesis atm is AI coding ability will kill most software/tech businesses because Claude can write some code etc…. 🤣 Writing software is easy….. but try selling it into a large org/hospital/government etc etc I think the market sentiment is wrong here👀

@TheWealthGuy_ @ryu_tay That’s the billion dollar question - to me it’s sentiment - global interest rate trend, rate of growth trend, the amelioration acquisition- hedge funds smell blood - technicals are shit - this will all pass!!

@TheWealthGuy_ @ryu_tay $XRO - very hard to go build a replica/similar software. Accountants like to stick with a few products - namely Xero, QBO & MYOB. To make accountants change is hard - building a product with ATO compliance is tough - lots of $$$ required

Forager: “The value of software, in a world where anyone can use AI to 'vibe code' their way to a new website or app, is significantly diminished. That’s the theory. It is a theory we are willing to bet against at the right price. We are a user of Xero’s $XRO product and won’t be vibe coding our accounting software any time soon. ”

@TheWealthGuy_ @ryu_tay $XRO - moreover if AI is going to make software so easy to make then $XRO can break into other markets much more easily - or for that matter increase development and add more customers

@ryu_tay Forager doesn't have a great track record of these calls. XRO in a stage 4 downtrend, a total avoid at all costs.

@kma_capital True valuation is a perspective - depends on forward earnings - technically the bears took this down to long term support in a hurry and huge volume - the bulls fought back - the sellers have now lost momentum - oversold territory - bounce expected

@kma_capital $XRO - huge volume capitulation potentially in play - sell at all costs - near the support line - almost 50% drawdown - sell sentiment strong

My portfolio grew from $50,000 to $180,000 in 2025 investing in speculative plays: $ASTS, $NBIS, $IREN. I am changing my approach for this 2026 year. Thematic approach based on a mixed on fundamentals & hype: I am picking several names based of a few themes I believe in for 2026. (Thread)

@sns_trader Gap to be filled at 22.97 - Macquaries research says based on current #ironore prices FMG NAV should be 140% higher - moreover EbItda should be 45% higher in CY2026 -

$FMG -At important 1 year resistance now with multiple gaps above

@CarlCapolingua Hey mate how do I get access to your ribbons

FYI, everyone who is using my trend ribbons on TradingView, version update went live today: Short term trend ribbon brought to front (so now overlays long term trend ribbon) 👍

@CarlCapolingua Carl, whats your opinion on $PDN, any idea why the whole sector is being smacked?

#URANIUM TA Update 🧐 ST/LT trends: ⬆️/↔️ (was ⬇️!) Price action (peaks/troughs) = 📈 View: Credible ST rally has neutralized LT trend = ✅. Continued 📈 + Close > LT ribbon needed to start new LT uptrend. Overall bias now NEUTRAL (⬆️ vs BEARISH previous) $CCO $URA $BOE $PDN $DYL

@CarlCapolingua Carl can you please rebook at PDN - thanks - is there a chance that the trend is changing?

Shouldn't be this easy / hard (i.e., if you're short / long) $PDN #uranium

@TheKouk This is good policy - price reduction across the board for individuals and businesses - trucks are the engine of all economies - far better then the 1% proposed cut in tax rates

Petrol prices are 5% lower now than when the Labor Party took office. One of the least important issues in cost of living - why bother with a temporary excise cut?

@KathyJones He’s lost the plot so his billionaire buddies can short the market - everything is a transaction

What is the end game with tariffs because I'm losing track. Is it bringing jobs back to US? Is it raising revenue? Is it a negotiating strategy for something? What is being achieved?

@AlboMP So the question is what are you standing up to? Share markets are stuffed. Falling SP results in less Capex, resulting in less jobs and wages growth. Productivity is struggling. No wonder blackrock says Australia is uninvestible

Around the world and here at home, our government will always stand up for Australian jobs and Australian industries. The US decision to impose tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium as part of a global decision is unjustified. As with the other products and resources that Australia has, we will continue to diversify markets for our products which are in demand globally. All Australians can join this effort and support our industries by taking the opportunity to buy Australian.

@ImmaYieldGuy @mondyinvest It’s not just iron ore price - it’s the sentiment of blackrock who are cutting exposure to Australian equities - Bridgewater is short, SS, UBS have consistently been short - earnings and outlook is bad for Aus equities- miners have the china worry

@mondyinvest Also musing here, could make the argument the majors have been horrible capital allocators recently and the IO down cycle theory has gone for 10yrs now…

All jokes aside with Twiggy’s bullshit… at what price is $FMG genuinely attractive for the long term? One would make the argument here at $15/sh is that entry with a 5-10yr view. In the event of $10/sh, it’ll probably mean Fe prices are already down in the 70-80’s, which is where I’d definitely enter. Yield at some point is desirable. The contrarian in me has doubts about the severity of China’s slowdown, consensus being housing is completely finished there. The bear in me however worries about $FMG.AX ‘s deteriorating ore grades and the widening gap between the 62% Fe index and those lower discounted grades.

@ImmaYieldGuy I also believe will shut down its #lithium operations - too little money for the amount of money spent - even though they are in partnerships with ALB and someone else

The year is 2030… L1 just went 19.9% in $MIN as they continue to attempt to DCA their way out of trouble. Chris just spent another $500m on the haul road. L1 plan to lodge a takeover for $7/sh

@ImmaYieldGuy Am I reading the announcement correctly L1 capital has increased their stake to 9.19% and not 19.9% - are you implying they will buy another 10%

@scottlincicome Cause chaos with tariffs, then realise oops we screwed up - let’s amend them and put a positive spin on- mean while the markets are getting whipped!! How can one man cause so much drama?

Today, Trump temporarily eliminated his own tariffs to "protect American car manufacturers and American farmers." I could watch this a million times.

@GreenOriginInv This is the only market outside China - I hope we now see fundamental supply demand factors coming into #lithium prices - Chinese prices are opaque and open to manipulation- which has really destroyed a lot of miners globally. Question is how do we compare ABXX products with SMM?

🔋🔋LITHIUM CARBONATE MARKET USA This is a really interesting development.