Stern

Last night, another large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack was carried out on Ukraine. Missiles launched: ~32 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers at their launch lines over Vologda Oblast. ~11 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations south of Pochep, Bryansk Oblast. ~7 Iskander-K cruise missiles launched from OTRK installations in eastern Kursk Oblast. ~7 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations in eastern Kursk Oblast. ~4 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations northwest of Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast. ~3 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles launched from 3 MiG-31K fighter jets at their launch lines over southwestern Ryazan Oblast. ----------------------- Total missiles launched: ~32 Kh-101 cruise missiles ~22 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles. ~7 Iskander-K cruise missiles ~3 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missile ~64 missiles in total. ----------------------- Ukrainian air defence work: As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to intercept at least 13 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles and 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. ----------------------- The main targets for this strike was Kyiv and central Ukraine. The following was targeted: - Warehouse facility in Kyiv Oblast (50.41858, 30.2994) by ~4 Kh-101 cruise missiles. - Starokostyantyniv Airbase, Khmelnytskyi Oblast (49.74643, 27.2701) by ~3 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles. - Kremenchuk Oil Refinery, Poltava Oblast (49.16888, 33.46296) by ~2 Iskander-M/s-400 ballistic missiles. - Gas station in Kyiv (50.400872, 30.684892) by ~1 Kh-101 cruise missile. - Residential building in eastern Kyiv (50.403209, 30.655081) by ~1 Kh-101 cruise missile. - Multiple unknown targets in eastern Kyiv by ~6 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles - Multiple unknown (likely defence-related) targets in southwestern Kyiv by ~5 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and an unknown number of Kh-101 cruise missiles. - Unknown target in Kozyn, Kyiv Oblast, by ~4 Iskander-K cruise missiles. - Unknown target in Dvrz District, Kyiv, by ~4 Kh-101 cruise missiles. - Unknown target in northern Kyiv (50.506950, 30.495200) by an unknown number of Kh-101 cruise missiles. - Unknown target near Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast, by ~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles. - Unknown target near the the northeastern outskirts of Kyiv by ~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles. ----------------------- Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches.

Well, here we go… the U.S. has officially congratulated Russia on the New Year. What’s next — sending Putin a gift basket?

NEW: Data on Russian forces’ rate of advance indicates that a Russian military victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, and a rapid Russian seizure of the rest of Donetsk Oblast is not imminent. ⬇️🧵(1/3) A senior US military official reportedly stated that the war will only worsen for Ukraine as Russia can fight indefinitely and that it is better for Ukraine to negotiate a peace settlement now rather than negotiate from a weaker position later. The Kremlin has consistently pushed a narrative claiming that a Russian victory is inevitable — particularly since reports first emerged of the 28-point peace proposal — in order to push Ukraine and the West to acquiesce to Russia’s demands. The reality on the battlefield indicates that a Russian victory in Ukraine is far from certain, however. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian military commanders have been attempting to portray Russia as capable of rapidly seizing Donetsk Oblast militarily, but hard data on the rate of Russian advance in Donetsk Oblast does not indicate that Russian forces will imminently seize the rest of the oblast. Russian forces have been prioritizing completing the seizure of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, but have been slow to do so as Ukrainian forces have successfully stymied the rate of Russian advance in Pokrovsk to footpace. Russian forces entered Pokrovsk for the first time by July 31, and Russian forces have advanced an average of 0.12 kilometers per day in Pokrovsk from July 31 to November 26. Russian forces have not seized Pokrovsk — a town of 11.5 square miles — despite operating within the town for over 118 days. ISW has only observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have consolidated advances in 66 percent of Pokrovsk as of November 26, a low percentage given the time and manpower (elements of at least two combined arms armies) Russia has dedicated to pursuing this effort. The Russian rate of advance across the theater intensified since the Alaska summit on August 15, with Russian forces advancing an average of 9.3 square kilometers per day across the entire theater, between August 15 and November 20, but these advances are still constrained to footpace. Russian forces could seize the remainder of Ukrainian-held Donetsk Oblast by August 2027, assuming a constant Russian rate of advance. ISW continues to assess that the Russian military command may prioritize offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast but is unlikely to completely deprioritize other sectors to maintain the strategic initiative and pressure along the entire theater. Russian forces have most rapidly advanced in eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts in recent weeks, inflating the theater-wide rate of advance compared to Russian forces’ comparatively slower rate of advance in Donetsk Oblast.