AudubonAndrew

@Rishibets @LastLegCrushed Are you sure

@AudubonAndrew @LastLegCrushed Umm no

Ah yes, "10-1", aka +809. Rounding error right? Actually kind of insane that they do this btw

@LastLegCrushed @Rishibets It is because DK predicts doesn’t allow you to set limit orders AFAIK so you are just taking whatever price their MM is offering whereas Kalshi allows you to specify limit and avoid fees

@Rishibets Only other things I can think of is that it shows it somewhere different or just that’s it’s cropped out but I’m assuming it’s neither of those as well or you wouldn’t have made the post. If not outright illegal then it’s for sure sketchy, or we just both missing something else

@bigcontentguy Egregious sunglasses

the twinkification of augusta national.

There are cathedrals everywhere for those with the eyes to see

@ShaleTier7 @Nostroah @KalshiResearch Then why after I explained it did you tweet out roughly the exact same engagement bait question

@AudubonAndrew @Nostroah @KalshiResearch No, I didn't know that, hence me asking (usually what people do when they want more detail on things).

Kalshi founder on institutional adoption: "Block trades are already live on the platform...Right now a trade that we're seeing a lot is in the $20-30 million range for payroll hedging"

@ShaleTier7 @Nostroah @KalshiResearch Sure but you knew that because if a company needs to hedge 30mm of payroll exposure they are likely insolvent or Enron

@AudubonAndrew @Nostroah @KalshiResearch This is just normal financial markets stuff that any normal hedge fund would engage in; not a manufacturing company hedging their ability to pay their employees, correct?

@ShaleTier7 @Nostroah @KalshiResearch Not even close. You have a portfolio of 5 things that you think will go up based on payroll number of X. Anything less will cause decrease in portfolio value. You can either hedge all 5 individually or buy 1 contract that hedges risk if number is less than X. One shot hedge

@AudubonAndrew @Nostroah @KalshiResearch So they're just making bets on economic data as you would with any number of traditional financial products, not actually using it for something that delivers useful utility?

@ShaleTier7 @Nostroah @KalshiResearch Payroll numbers like ADP, non-farm BLS etc not own payroll. Government shutdowns delayed and cancelled reports.

@Nostroah @KalshiResearch That makes a lot of sense that's a factor you can't get in traditional markets cleanly; but who is the target audience (i.e. how/why would a hedge fund hedge against government shutdowns, what factor are they trying to neutralize), or is it hedge funds/banks hedging for clients?

@chad691969 @T3SSABLANCHARD You are asking an amateur wrestler to opine on whether there is going to be funding for DHS in 4 weeks?

@T3SSABLANCHARD Has TSA been an issue? Im nervous i fly to ohare in 4 weeks @ 5am for miami then to the Dominican

Leaving Guadalajara 🇲🇽 Off to New Orleans for 3 days of TNA 🇺🇸 Then… Costa Rica 🇨🇷

@ContrarianCurse Well if you want to attend in Chicago lmk

This sort of reminds me of this charity boxing match that is held in my city every year within the biz community I get the raising money part but the skew seemed fucking awful to me. Like zero upside, and on the off chance I get my block knocked off they'll remember it forever

@LanceupperPI @ShadowyZephyr YIKES!

@ShadowyZephyr My guess is that there are no other noms this week after the big dump today so has to be lower than where we have started the week. Time decay will reprice it for me

Warshie Warshies Locked In Their Cagies

@mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara Still haven’t addressed how you arbitrarily chose the first strike as the TOD which was not when he died

As an exchange, we resolve the market according to the rules, even when there is disagreement with the resolution. I understand many of you are frustrated about the Khamenei market, and I want to clear up a few things along with steps we have taken to improve: The market rules were not changed. The death carveout and settlement based on last-traded-price were part of the published market rules from the outset (see the screenshot from the rules, which can also be found in our official filing from 2025 on the CFTC website). The death carveout was also always shown on the market page (see market page below). Once the strikes on Iran started, we added the “Green Box” to further highlight the death carveout in the UI (this is not a rule change, just a highlight of the rules). We settled according to the rules. Traders were paid based on the last traded price. Some traders who held YES feel like they should have won (as in the market should have settled to YES). But the rules clearly stated that the market would not settle to YES in the event of death: traders expect us to settle the market based on the rules and we have to apply the rules consistently for both YES and NO holders; changing settlement because one side is unhappy would break trust in the exchange (imagine you held NO and you read the rules, but then we decided to settle contrary to the rules). Death carveouts are important; as a federally regulated prediction market, we are required and feel it is important not to enable direct profiting from war, assassination, terrorism, or other violent outcomes. No trader lost money on this market. While the rules were clear and we tried our best to highlight them, traders vocalized they were not prominent enough. We heard you, and we decided to reimburse out of pocket for all fees and all net losses from trading in the market: 1. If you sold for a net loss before settlement, we reimbursed you for that net loss and 2. if you didn’t recoup your position cost during settlement, we paid you the difference so you get your full position cost back. You can find reimbursements under "Your activity" in the app and website. No trader ended net-negative after our reimbursements. Kalshi did not profit on this market. We do not stand to benefit from one resolution or the other. We earn fees from facilitating trades. For this market, we reimbursed all fees back to users. We also reimbursed net losses users incurred on the market out of pocket, so no trader ended net negative. As a result, Kalshi incurred a substantial loss to make users whole. We will improve. We learned a lot from this market. We are updating how we present similar markets (e.g., those with a death carveout or where a death might be a likely scenario) so traders can see the exception more clearly before they trade. We will surface the exception in the title and at the top of the market page. We also recognize that the first iteration of the Green Box warning created confusion; we revised it and reimbursed net losses for the market. Going forward, we are implementing a tighter review process for UI highlights. The best part about Kalshi is you all and I'm sorry for the disappointment. We'll improve, thank you for bearing with us.

@HarryDCrane operator choice to attempt to set a clear line without having death as a resolution

Does anyone know why certain markets are unwound to a prior point and settled at a prior last-traded price? Is this an operator choice or a regulatory requirement?

@mansourtarek_ @NathanMeininger You are using the wrong time for his TOD

@NathanMeininger My first message was unclear. To clarify, all positions, no matter when they were opened, will first be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. On top of that, if you bought a position today for a higher price, we'll make you whole.

On Khamenei: We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here. I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that’s different than having a market directly settling on someone’s death, which is not allowed for US regulated entities. What’s the point of the market, then? A market on Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order: • geopolitical implications • economic consequences • national security considerations • oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome And it’s always possible for a ruler to step down or transition power without death, even in autocracies. It just happened in Venezuela. In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving. In the meantime, here’s what we’re going to do: • We are reimbursing all fees from this market • If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. (This was clear in our rules) • If you have a position from after he died, we’re going to fully reimburse your cost of entry

@mansourtarek_ The first strike was not the one that killed the Ayatollah

@PredMTrader Paying to take another man’s fill. Catch 22

Deciding between letting another man “fill” me or paying ”taker” fees

@benwfreeman1 @thegreektrader @MrBeast It was Artem Kaptur from Mr Beast they released the regulatory notice

BREAKING: This “trading scam” that @thegreektrader highlighted 5 months ago has likely been identified by Kalshi so that the insider (like @MrBeast editor) has been punished and banned from trading CAVEAT: We can’t know for sure if it was MrBeast because Kalshi didn’t say which YouTuber is what for anonymity purposes, but it’s highly likely that it was him because he’s the only YouTuber that I know of who has mentioned markets for their YouTube videos. UPDATE: Since @thegreektrader identified this, the MrBeast mention markets have been fair (not insidered), which makes me think that Kalshi took action in late September or early October, and then disclosed it formally today. Huge thank you to @mansourtarek_ for choosing to share this, as it puts the story to bed. I wonder if Polymarket has any statements or action related to this.

2 minutes might be a record for getting blocked by charmin soft Daddy Dustin. Crazy

@DustinGouker Crazy that they didn’t give you the scoop when all you do is try to dunk on them day in and day out. Wonder why

(Otherwise I am obviously glad that Kalshi is enforcing its own rules)

Kalshi is victory-lapping cracking down on a politician betting on themselves when I am the one who literally broke the news like 10 months ago. The news was sent to a bunch of other writers early, but not to me. And you wonder why I don't take this company seriously.

@BarstoolChief x.com/jon_bois/statu…

Of course it’s OT again