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So after yesterday's introduction to the fundamentals of @OREsupply mining, today's educational seminar courtesy of @compoundORE - future home no click $ORE compounding and zero interest USDC advances without liquidation risk - is on where to start after getting $ORE-pilled.
As was the case yesterday, as an extra incentive to help spread this content I put a few hours into creating on my way back from Europe today, we will be doing a solo $ORE giveaway for retweeting. To be eligible you must all follow @zedge_ore and @compoundORE.
Okay so with the boring stuff covered... let's set the stage for what we're going to be talking about today. You've just been $ORE-pilled and you have $10k to invest and you're curious should I buy spot and stake or should I mine or do both or something else. Something else could be providing liquidity on @MeteoraAG etc but for now we will ignore than and just focus on the buy vs mine decision and touch a little on the go vs wait decision.
For today we will assume you have $10k to invest, $ORE is $150 and you earn 20% with compounding when you stake vs 100% when you mine (no compounding). As a reminder you pay a 10% tax when refining your mined ore... but the yield you get from holding unrefined mined ore is already refined and thus does not result in a tax when you claim.
So below I've put together a nice table showing you how much $ORE you have buying spot vs mining and refining after various amounts of time and mining premium. As a reminder, mining returns as so attractive many people are willing to mine at a premium to spot (myself included - doing 3 sol a block as I write this patiently waiting for the @photofinishgame miner to launch).
It should be common sense that our goal should be to get as much $ORE as possible for our $10k. To answer what is optimal you need to know both what your time horizon is and how expensive it will be to mine.
There are lots of good tools to figure out how expensive it is to mine (ore dot monster is a good new one I stumbled across from @oredotmonster). Below is a screenshot of what I look for... $235 production price and $191 spot price or a 23% premium. From spending a lot of time in the mines that is a pretty good price, especially for a large motherlode with around 200 ore and a low absolute price for ore (we were at 500+ not long ago so good time to stack up).
Bottom left there is a heat map showing the outcome in terms of number of $ORE you end up with after holding various amounts of time buying spot vs mining at various premiums. Mining is all about taking the long view so for now we will talk about the return for waiting a year (though I've included 0 to 24M in each figure so pick whatever you want)
In our example, your $10k buys you 67 ore at a $150 spot price. This ore compounds to 81 ore after 12 months. If you could instead amass an unrefined ore position for the same price then you would be better off after waiting 2 months (your 100% yield would more than offset the 10% refining cost). If you wait the full year, then your 0% permium unrefined ore position would leave you with 127 ore after refining. It is quite hard to mine for spot... perhaps some people can do it and the smaller the amount you need to invest the more selective you can be... if we instead say you mine for a 20% premium to spot, like current conditions and where I am generally mining, then you start out with only 50 ore... a lot less than buying spot. You pay a premium to get your ore and a tax to refine it... it really only makes sense to mine if you have long-term conviction in ore and the liquidity to not need to access your ore for awhile.
In this 20% premium example, you start to breakeven by month 5 and by month 12 you have 106 ore. Ending the year with 106 ore vs the staker with 81 gives you a nice margin of error. We will get into that more in the post below
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