Lesserfool

@thoughtfulmoney @LanceRoberts Agree 💯 but what is the current market narrative? War and $100 oil are good for the economy? Or just “AI fixes this”. Market is so complacent right now

Watch the full episode ⬇️ Very Overbought Stock Market Ripe For A Pullback | @LanceRoberts youtube.com/watch?v=QkLps6…

Trading Narratives Instead Of Price Action Is How You Lose Money In this Short video, @LanceRoberts and @AdamTaggart break down why stocks $SPX $QQQ just had their strongest month since 2020 despite war headlines and rising #crudeoil, and explain why following market signals—not seasonal narratives like “sell in May”—is what actually protects your capital. The April rally was strong, unexpected, and sentiment-driven. Prior weakness set the stage: February and March were unusually poor (including a ~10% drawdown in March), leaving sentiment very negative. As a result, positioning was offside – many investors were underexposed or defensive.  April is also historically a strong month, with tax refund-related inflows, the start of earnings season, and the resumption of corporate buybacks. While seasonality matters, most investors take it too literally. “Sell in May and go away” isn’t a rule you follow blindly. Yes, May’s average returns are modest (~0.2–0.3%), and the biggest drawdowns often show up in August–September, but cutting risk just because the calendar says so is the wrong approach. Instead, stay fully invested while trends are intact and shift only when market signals deteriorate. @LanceRoberts uses the following analogy: the market = driving fast on an open highway. As long as the road is clear → stay at full speed (fully invested). If you see warning signs (traffic, brake lights, hazards) → gradually slow down. What would trigger de-risking now? Sustained high oil prices, unresolved geopolitical tensions with Iran, midterm election cycle. These are potential catalysts, but not reasons to act yet. So, trading narratives instead of price action is how you lose money. Narratives are fine for discussion, but the market’s actual behavior matters more than any story. So, follow price, trend, and momentum – not headlines, seasonality clichés, or macro noise. Watch the full conversation with @LanceRoberts by clicking on the link below⬇️

@CNBCFastMoney @SchwabTrading “We need more bag holders so we can exit our positions”

Energy prices and geopolitical risk haven't deterred retail traders from making portfolio moves, according to @SchwabTrading's James Kostulias: "Bullishness is absolutely waning, but confidence is still up." cnbc.com/video/2026/05/…

@Cigna are you aware that your online portal only allows for an upload of documents that are 5MB or smaller?????? Can’t upload a black and white PDF EOB that is 7 pages 🤦‍♂️

@HayekAndKeynes Ah yes, the wisdom of the market predicting its outcome 8 months in advance.

Sorry about your puts

@adamtaggart @Afshar__ @LanceRoberts Totally agree. Point being it doesn’t always mean the opposite either. Without a war going on that is affecting a major global artery with markets at all time highs I would go with the backward looking data but I’m pretty conservative so…

@AynSpan @Afshar__ @LanceRoberts Sure. But that doesn't mean strong spending = imminent catastrophe

Consumer spending continues to remain resilient despite fears of the Iran war oil shock slamming into the bottom leg of the K-shaped economy Total March retail sales: +1.7%MoM And in case you think that's driven by higher gas prices Core (ex-energy) March retail sales: +0.7%MoM These numbers solidly beat expectations I agree there are still very valid macro concerns out there. But this robust spending -- plus the additional recent data provided below -- paint a picture of economic resilience. As I said in my recent Market Recap with @LanceRoberts, when it comes to the US economy (but *not* necessarily the financial markets), it's not that I'm becoming fully bullish...but it's that I'm having more & more trouble finding reasons to be bearish I know this may fly in the face of some people's strongly-held concerns. But my job is to follow the data, and the data is decidedly not warning of slowdown (yet, at least) All this of course is subject to change. If the data starts changing in a different direction, I will be covering that here as it happens.

@adamtaggart @Afshar__ @LanceRoberts Consumer spending was strong in Feb 2020. Just sayin

@Afshar__ @LanceRoberts Yep - sentiment is terrible But that's "soft data", not the kind hard data I'm detailing here

@LanceRoberts @adamtaggart If everyone whistles past the graveyard, then no one dies. Right? 😉

@adamtaggart My work is done here. 🤣🤣🤣

@adamtaggart @xrpmasterplan Property tax significantly lower in NV too correct?

@xrpmasterplan A lot Cost of living is lower (though housing not by a ton) But the real savings is leaving the highest income tax state in the country for a 0% state income tax

Nevada is WAY colder in the winter than where I lived in California My CA utility bill last March? Around $1,000. I kid you not. My NV utility bill for last month, when we had the heat & our gas fireplaces going all the time? $137 Reno just keeps on finding ways to delight me

@HayekAndKeynes It’s GOING swiMmiNgly.!

Trump says US negotiators will be in Pakistan on Monday for talks with Iran

@biancoresearch @dailydirtnap sentiment?

TLT is a good proxy for bond market interest. And interest (volume) is now at a 3+ year low. * $TLT's volume today was 12.720M shares, the lowest daily volume since January 2023 (and this INCLUDES holidays) * The 5-day average volume is 17.974M, the lowest since April 2023.

@DeItaone Minor detail

IRAN'S TASNIM SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINS ONE OF THE MAIN POINTS OF SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT IN ISLAMABAD TALKS

@zerohedge One mans extortion is another mans tariff…

Trump: "The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate"

@MarriottBonvoy can you please tell me where on the app, website or my emailed confirmation I can find record of the package with 2000 extra bonus points I purchased is?

@x4ckl @TerribleMaps Yupe, you are correct…

@TerribleMaps Why is this Michigan and what is going on in here? You have to take like three boats to get there.

Can I name my child after a state? Submitted by Mike Yamiolkoski

@HayekAndKeynes They ARE crazy bastards

Is he bluffing? Do we want to really find out?

Me realizing nearly everyone on the Epstein list is still free, but I still have to go to court for a traffic ticket.

@zerohedge Now do stocks…

California Bans Government Officials From Using Insider Knowledge To Bet On Prediction Markets zerohedge.com/personal-finan…

@SantiagoAuFund It’s not that I want him on that wall, I need him on that wall…

Who do you want on the Wall...?