Gabriel

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Gabriel

Gabriel

@BabyBaconFat

Katılım Ekim 2016
2.5K Takip Edilen398 Takipçiler
Gabriel
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat·
I am long $TOYO. I argue it is easily worth $2B just on it's Houston facility and section 45X credits. It makes $80M in annual tax credits today on a $558M mkt cap, and the market isn't pricing any growth. Check out my in depth analysis below: open.substack.com/pub/gabrielcor…
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Gabriel
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat·
@nullcharts Another day, another beautiful chart
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Ricardo Sarraf
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts·
After three and a half months of consolidation, these continuation patterns look close to resolving. One in the Mexican Peso $MXNUSD and the other in Copper Miners $COPX. I'm betting they resolve higher. If one resolves, the other should confirm. These breakouts also have bearish implications for the US Dollar, btw $DXY.
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Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts

The Mexican Peso, the blue-chip currency of Latin America, is setting up for an important breakout more than a decade in the making. An upside resolution would mark a major change in character for the long-term trend. This would be a powerful tailwind for Mexican equities, and Latin American stocks more broadly. $EWW $MXNUSD

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Gabriel
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat·
Although it's already up 21% today after reporting earnings, I had been working on this $GTX post for some time and I believe there is still more upside. Check it out: open.substack.com/pub/gabrielcor…
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Gabriel retweetledi
Ricardo Sarraf
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts·
So... the price trend is shifting at the same time the company becomes profitable? And the stock has a 20 days to cover ratio on 13% short interest... Not bad $SKYH
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Gabriel@BabyBaconFat

While everyone's worried about whether the ceasefire will collapse, $SKYH has been quietly delivering. Since my substack dropped, the numbers are doing exactly what I said they would: FY2025 revenue: +87% YoY ($14.8M → $27.5M). Rental alone +70%. First positive net income year: $7.3M, $0.10 EPS What moved since I wrote: Two new Tier One unique airports: Long Beach (LGB) and Fort Worth Meacham (FTW). 18 → 23. My model gave SKYH zero credit for signings beyond 18. Every new Tier One campus is worth roughly $1/share. Non-dilutive funding secured: $200M JPMorgan Term Loan Facility executed (Sept '25) More non-dilutive funding because why not: $150M Series 2026 tax-exempt PABs issued (Feb '26) at 6.00%. Higher coupon than the 2021 series (4.25%), but still far below the 13%+ unlevered NOI yield on cost. The spread is the whole trade. OBBBA thesis playing out: OBBBA made 100% bonus depreciation on business aircraft permanent. That was Pillar 8 of my thesis. Congress locked it in. The thesis hasn't moved: the evidence has gotten louder. Private jet backlog is now $57B (+10% YoY). 2027 is still the year the P&L finally shows what the unit economics have been saying the whole time. Given that they add 2 leases per quarter on average, rentable sqft should nearly triple to 4M. Fully long, common + warrants. Biggest position in my book. Highest conviction I've ever had on any name. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

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Gabriel
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat·
While everyone's worried about whether the ceasefire will collapse, $SKYH has been quietly delivering. Since my substack dropped, the numbers are doing exactly what I said they would: FY2025 revenue: +87% YoY ($14.8M → $27.5M). Rental alone +70%. First positive net income year: $7.3M, $0.10 EPS What moved since I wrote: Two new Tier One unique airports: Long Beach (LGB) and Fort Worth Meacham (FTW). 18 → 23. My model gave SKYH zero credit for signings beyond 18. Every new Tier One campus is worth roughly $1/share. Non-dilutive funding secured: $200M JPMorgan Term Loan Facility executed (Sept '25) More non-dilutive funding because why not: $150M Series 2026 tax-exempt PABs issued (Feb '26) at 6.00%. Higher coupon than the 2021 series (4.25%), but still far below the 13%+ unlevered NOI yield on cost. The spread is the whole trade. OBBBA thesis playing out: OBBBA made 100% bonus depreciation on business aircraft permanent. That was Pillar 8 of my thesis. Congress locked it in. The thesis hasn't moved: the evidence has gotten louder. Private jet backlog is now $57B (+10% YoY). 2027 is still the year the P&L finally shows what the unit economics have been saying the whole time. Given that they add 2 leases per quarter on average, rentable sqft should nearly triple to 4M. Fully long, common + warrants. Biggest position in my book. Highest conviction I've ever had on any name. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat

Hello all! If you haven’t checked out my write up on $SKYH, let me summarize it for you. $SKYH is severely undervalued and its profitability is masked by upfront costs, but once stabilized its properties yield +13% unlevered. Private jet demand is booming and these rich folk need a place to park their jets. $SKYH dominates the home basing market, and their “competition” (FBOs) serve an entirely different service of transient traffic. $SKYH is years ahead of the competition and has locked in 18 airports with 50 year lease agreements. I value the shares at $19 and the market is currently valuing $SKYH at 12x 2027 AFFO which is way too low for a class A real estate developer with 13+% yields on customers that are price insensitive. The market is valuing $SKYH like a sinking ship burning cash, but once stabilized, I argue that these properties will break even by year end 2025. Showing profitability in Q4. With Q2 results coming tomorrow. I expect the market to begin to see what $SKYH is building as they add more airports and potentially disclose financing that clears up dilution fears. If the market doesn’t like it, I’ll buy more and wait for Q4!

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FSMN
FSMN@faststocknewss·
what was the first stock you ever bought?
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Gabriel
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat·
@nullcharts imo they are doing this to stall ground invasion
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Gabriel
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat·
@BackupJeffx but his brother died, hard for me to believe he wouldn’t have called his brother if he knew
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Parody Jeff
Parody Jeff@Parodyjeffx·
❌ 𝗟𝗨𝗧𝗡𝗜𝗖𝗞’𝗦 𝟵/𝟭𝟭 𝗠𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗬 Every day, driver took Lutnick’s kids to school. Except that morning. Lutnick himself dropped his son at kindergarten. Survived the hit.
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Ricardo Sarraf
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts·
The window of opportunity for global stocks just opened even wider. The US Dollar Index $DXY is printing fresh 52-week lows today. More importantly, it is working on breaking down from an uptrend nearly two decades in the making. It has been weak for a while, but a breakdown here would mark a true change in character. Overlaid is Ex-US stocks versus US stocks, a clean mirror image of the dollar. The ebbs and flows of the latter governing the former. That ratio is also breaking out. In simple terms, the reversal in Ex-US equities can not only continue, but now has the fuel to accelerate. Need more evidence that this move has legs? - Emerging markets $EEM vs $SPY, new 2-year highs - Latin America $ILF, highest level since April '18 - Brazil $EWZ, highest level since April '22 - Mexico $EWW, all-time high - Peru $EPU, all-time high - Argentina $ARGT, all-time high - Asia $AIA, all-time high - South Korea $EWY, all-time high - Malaysia $EWM, highest level since June '19 - Emerging Markets Ex-China $EMXC, all-time high - Africa $AFK, highest level since Nov '14 - South Africa $EZA, all-time high - Europe $IEV, all-time high - Spain $EWP, highest level since June '08 - Italy $EWI, highest level since June '08 - Greece $GREK, testing '14 highs - Austria $EWO, highest level since June '08 - Germany $EWG, all-time high - France $EWQ, all-time high there's more... much more... Yes, corrections will come. Short-term sentiment feels hot, but these cycles average around a decade. Given the overwhelming amount of evidence right now, I am not betting that this time will be different.
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J.C. Parets@JC_ParetsX

I’m down in Miami for a few days meeting with investors and talking through new themes and trade ideas @StockMktTV Yesterday alone we ripped through hundreds of charts. This one shared by @AlfCharts & @nullcharts was probably the most important of the day trendlabs.com/is-u-s-stock-d…

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Ricardo Sarraf
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts·
In 2025, Europe $IEV posted its best year since 2003, closing the year at new all-time highs. In 2003, it was followed by a bull run that lasted five years. While markets rarely repeat perfectly, this adds further bullish evidence in support of the trend and massive base breakout.
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Gabriel
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat·
They specialize in ACA marketplace plans. Their business model only works with enhancements. If ACA enhancements don’t exist, young people won’t enroll in marketplace plans because no one wants to pay $800+ in health care, especially if they are healthy. Funny of you assume they will be profitable in 2027
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Oguz Erkan
Oguz Erkan@oguzerkan·
Those who are selling $OSCR here because of ACA are the same idiots who sold $HIMS at $20 because of GLP-1. Even if $OSCR misses 2027 EPS target of $2 by 50 percent and delivers just $1 EPS, it’s still trading at 15x 2027 earnings. Explain to me how this isn’t an opportunity?
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Jawwwn
Jawwwn@jawwwn_·
NEW— Palantir CEO Alex Karp on @michaeljburry’s short: “I don’t like short sellers.” “I think what was happening was market manipulation. I strongly suspect he was getting out of his position. And to get out of his position, he had to screw the whole economy by besmirching the best financials ever, financials helping the average person as investors and on the battlefield.”
Jawwwn@jawwwn_

Palantir CEO Alex Karp on @MichaelJBurry__’s Palantir and Nvidia short: “As far as I can tell, the two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money. The idea that Chips and Ontology is what you want to short is— batshit crazy.”

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🏴‍☠️
🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
Chemical stocks continue to have positive earnings reactions Bad market, but very over sold and these guys are mostly far from going out of business
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Say No To Trading
Say No To Trading@SayNoToTrading·
On Chipotle $CMG, Starbucks $SBUX, and any other restaurant stock which is primarily or entirely non-franchised. Keep in mind they carry the leases. In 2019, GAAP change required leases to be treated as debt on balance sheets. As such, any enterprise value multiples to look at long term historical are rather pointless. One of the rare times I'm going to say, you need to do P/S and not EV/S etc. For example, this is $CMG due to leases. Not debt in traditional sense.
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Gabriel
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat·
$EE developing iraq LNG terminal. While people are trying to play a squeeze on $NFE, $EE will be the greatest beneficiary of $NFE bankruptcy. All of $EE contracts are with governments that have never missed a payment. This should trade at a premium to $LNG but it doesn’t.
Gabriel@BabyBaconFat

$EE fascinating development with this acquisition in Jamaica. 13Y contract acquired at 9x 25E EBITDA. EE trades at 6x forward, extremely accretive. EE current portfolio has 7Y average contract length. Also, acquiring $NFE power assets at a discount who needs liquidity badly.

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Ricardo Sarraf
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts·
If this is the end, or close to it, then this was a very muted cycle for crypto.... $TOTAL
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