

Gabriel
77 posts





The Mexican Peso, the blue-chip currency of Latin America, is setting up for an important breakout more than a decade in the making. An upside resolution would mark a major change in character for the long-term trend. This would be a powerful tailwind for Mexican equities, and Latin American stocks more broadly. $EWW $MXNUSD



While everyone's worried about whether the ceasefire will collapse, $SKYH has been quietly delivering. Since my substack dropped, the numbers are doing exactly what I said they would: FY2025 revenue: +87% YoY ($14.8M → $27.5M). Rental alone +70%. First positive net income year: $7.3M, $0.10 EPS What moved since I wrote: Two new Tier One unique airports: Long Beach (LGB) and Fort Worth Meacham (FTW). 18 → 23. My model gave SKYH zero credit for signings beyond 18. Every new Tier One campus is worth roughly $1/share. Non-dilutive funding secured: $200M JPMorgan Term Loan Facility executed (Sept '25) More non-dilutive funding because why not: $150M Series 2026 tax-exempt PABs issued (Feb '26) at 6.00%. Higher coupon than the 2021 series (4.25%), but still far below the 13%+ unlevered NOI yield on cost. The spread is the whole trade. OBBBA thesis playing out: OBBBA made 100% bonus depreciation on business aircraft permanent. That was Pillar 8 of my thesis. Congress locked it in. The thesis hasn't moved: the evidence has gotten louder. Private jet backlog is now $57B (+10% YoY). 2027 is still the year the P&L finally shows what the unit economics have been saying the whole time. Given that they add 2 leases per quarter on average, rentable sqft should nearly triple to 4M. Fully long, common + warrants. Biggest position in my book. Highest conviction I've ever had on any name. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

Hello all! If you haven’t checked out my write up on $SKYH, let me summarize it for you. $SKYH is severely undervalued and its profitability is masked by upfront costs, but once stabilized its properties yield +13% unlevered. Private jet demand is booming and these rich folk need a place to park their jets. $SKYH dominates the home basing market, and their “competition” (FBOs) serve an entirely different service of transient traffic. $SKYH is years ahead of the competition and has locked in 18 airports with 50 year lease agreements. I value the shares at $19 and the market is currently valuing $SKYH at 12x 2027 AFFO which is way too low for a class A real estate developer with 13+% yields on customers that are price insensitive. The market is valuing $SKYH like a sinking ship burning cash, but once stabilized, I argue that these properties will break even by year end 2025. Showing profitability in Q4. With Q2 results coming tomorrow. I expect the market to begin to see what $SKYH is building as they add more airports and potentially disclose financing that clears up dilution fears. If the market doesn’t like it, I’ll buy more and wait for Q4!


You leaning more TACO? Or TACO of TACO?

I KEEP HEARING ELMO IN THE SECOND BEAT OF CA$INO BY BABY KEEM NOBODY CAN TELL ME OTHERWISE



I’m down in Miami for a few days meeting with investors and talking through new themes and trade ideas @StockMktTV Yesterday alone we ripped through hundreds of charts. This one shared by @AlfCharts & @nullcharts was probably the most important of the day trendlabs.com/is-u-s-stock-d…


Palantir CEO Alex Karp on @MichaelJBurry__’s Palantir and Nvidia short: “As far as I can tell, the two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money. The idea that Chips and Ontology is what you want to short is— batshit crazy.”




$EE fascinating development with this acquisition in Jamaica. 13Y contract acquired at 9x 25E EBITDA. EE trades at 6x forward, extremely accretive. EE current portfolio has 7Y average contract length. Also, acquiring $NFE power assets at a discount who needs liquidity badly.


$IWM Top 25 holdings. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.