Leopold

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Leopold

Leopold

@Backyard_vienna

Katılım Şubat 2015
456 Takip Edilen204 Takipçiler
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Dr. Lemma
Dr. Lemma@DoctorLemma·
Sixteen years ago, one man stood alone on a grassy hill at a music festival in Washington State, USA, and started dancing by himself. People glanced over and looked away. Some laughed. His roommate leaned in and warned him people were filming him. He did not stop. Then one stranger got up and joined him. Then another. Then the hillside tipped. Within minutes, hundreds of people were sprinting from across the field to be part of something that, thirty seconds earlier, had been one man being laughed at in a field. Someone filming from higher up the hill said quietly: "See what one man can do. One man can change the world." The clip spread across the internet in 2009. Entrepreneur Derek Sivers played it at a TED conference to explain how movements actually begin. Not with the first person brave enough to start, he argued, but with the first person willing to join them. Collin Wynter, the man dancing alone, later said he had no idea he had done anything special. He was just tired of watching everyone sit still.
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Andrew Kang
Andrew Kang@Rewkang·
Researchers trained a humanoid robot to play tennis using only 5 hours of motion capture data The robot can now sustain multi-shot rallies with human players, hitting balls traveling >15 m/s with a ~90% success rate AlphaGo for every sport is coming
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Mark Gadala-Maria
Mark Gadala-Maria@markgadala·
This is wild. 143 million people thought they were catching Pokémon. They were actually building one of the largest real-world visual datasets in AI history. Niantic just disclosed that photos and AR scans collected through Pokémon Go have produced a dataset of over 30 billion real-world images. The company is now using that data to power visual navigation AI for delivery robots. Players didn't just walk around with their phones. They scanned landmarks, storefronts, parks, and sidewalks from every angle, at every time of day, in lighting and weather conditions that staged photography would never capture. They documented the physical world at a scale no mapping company with a fleet of vehicles could have replicated on the same timeline or budget. Niantic collected this systematically, data point by data point, across eight years, while users thought the only thing at stake was catching a rare Charizard. The most valuable AI training datasets in the world aren't being assembled in data centers. They're being built by people who have no idea they're building them.
NewsForce@Newsforce

POKÉMON GO PLAYERS TRAINED 30 BILLION IMAGE AI MAP Niantic says photos and scans collected through Pokémon Go and its AR apps have produced a massive dataset of more than 30 billion real-world images. The company is now using that data to power visual navigation for delivery robots, letting them identify exact locations on city streets without relying on GPS. Source: NewsForce

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CSPAN
CSPAN@cspan·
Yale Budget Lab Exec. Dir. @marthagimbel on the shrinking appeal of U.S. debt: "We are currently the boyfriend at the beginning of the Hallmark movie in the big city, where the girlfriend is still going out with him even though she knows that it's wrong."
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Zephyr
Zephyr@zephyr_z9·
35% of Samsung's NAND & 20% of Hynix NAND capacity is in China 40% of Hynix's DRAM capacity is in China They are responsible for the bulk of this growth
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand

This is fascinating from China's customs data (customs.gov.cn/customs/2026-0…). All its exports are rising very rapidly but the one export that's rising the fastest, at a crazy +72.6% growth year on year, is... semiconductors! As you can see in the trade data China sold $43.32 billion worth of 集成电路 ("integrated circuits") in Jan-Feb 2026, vs $25.10 billion for Jan-Feb last year. Interestingly, volume is "only" up 13.7% year on year, which means the increase in revenue is mostly driven by higher prices per chip, which probably suggests that a) China is climbing up the value chain (selling more expensive chips) b) demand for their chips far exceeds supply - which is the exact opposite of "overcapacity". You don't get +53% price increases per unit in a market with overcapacity And all in all, it goes to show that China is definitely a force to be reckoned with in the semiconductor world. Global semiconductor sales were $791.7 Billion in 2025 (semiconductors.org/global-annual-…) and projected to be ~$975 billion this year. China selling $43.32 billion in 2 months means its doing $260 billion annualized: that's over a quarter of the entire global semiconductor market. So much for the idea that export controls would freeze China out of the semiconductor industry...

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Ethan Mollick
Ethan Mollick@emollick·
NotebookLM: Do a deep research report and make a video telling me exactly how to take over Rome if I time travelled to 66 BC with a single backpack. Actually pretty fun to watch and gets a lot of historical details in as well.
Ethan Mollick@emollick

NotebookLM: Do a deep research report and make a video where a consultant gives Sauron a strategy for actually winning the War of the Ring: "All you need to do is sign off to put a simple door on your volcano" The new video generation feature for NotebookLM is very impressive.

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Andrej Karpathy
Andrej Karpathy@karpathy·
💯 "If you build it, they will come." :) ~Every business you go to is still so used to giving you instructions over legacy interfaces. They expect you to navigate to web pages, click buttons, they give out instructions for where to click and what to enter here or there. This suddenly feels rude - why are you telling me what to do? Please give me the thing I can copy paste to my agent.
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Dan Shipper 📧
Dan Shipper 📧@danshipper·
we just wrote the ultimate beginner's guide to OpenClaw almost everyone @every has one now, and they have completely changed the way we work and live. we're using our claws to: - build product - answer customer service queries - book hard-to-get restaurant reservations - track our reading notes and much more this is the guide we wish we'd had at the start: every.to/guides/claw-sc…
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Carlos Avendaño
Carlos Avendaño@Untiroalaire·
superb piece of writing my only pushback is on Kofinas requiring humans "to extend our time horizon" imho, individuals and societies are living in an increasingly compressed present, with ever-diminishing bid-ask spreads (△ liquidity ≠ △ productivity) this compression sharpens collective decision-making via stealthier wisdom-of-the-crowd marketplaces & widespread Bayesian priors (think near-real-time [nRT] updates refining probabilities on everything from markets to social trends, reminiscent of @howardlindzon's "degeneracy economy") this isn't inherently better or worse; it just is. And AI accelerates it, tilting us toward an Extremistan society where ~95% dance to the ~5%'s tune (the latter, individuals and megacorps alike, surely are extending their time horizons: longevity, intergen wealth, long-term private capital, depressed discount rates, etc) conversely, the modern Nation State (MNS) keeps raising its "walls of friction" (see @Mark_J_Perry's chart below), dragging us into a Kafkaesque board game with 2 options: a) play along to stagnate ("they pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work"); b) face progressive disenfranchisement and eventual drop-off (assets > labor, low tax hubs) surprisingly, reflexive cracks are already showing both in Western democracies (demand-fuelled yin) and single-party autocracies (supply-fuelled yang) the outcome/timing of this tug-of-war between nRT economic agents and friction-bound MNSs is anyone's guess circling back to Kofinas's thesis, I'm betting on humanity's cockroach-like resilience even as fat-tail risks escalate (from AI's unchecked/asymmetric diffusion to MNSs' mounting fragility) these forces may fracture rigid systems, but humans will outlast them, evolving through the chaos
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Demetri Kofinas@kofinas

One of our Genius members commented on a post about Citrini's recent article in the community. He gave me permission to republish it here, because I think his comments about moving from optimization to continuous innovation and regeneration really resonate with me: This is one of the most serious pieces I’ve read attempting to model what happens when intelligence stops being scarce. I agree with the core structural insight. If intelligence becomes dramatically cheaper and more abundant — if certain forms of friction collapse faster than our institutions can adjust — then much of our economic architecture begins to destabilize. Labor markets, organizational design, credit assumptions, tax systems — all of it is built on a world where human intelligence carried real scarcity and cost. The circular flow strains. The repricing cascades. What they outline is not absurd. It is plausible. But I want to press on the framing. They describe what is effectively an Intelligence Displacement Spiral — AI improves → payroll shrinks → spending softens → firms invest more in AI → AI improves. A reflexive loop with no natural brake. Here are the questions I’d want to ask them: 1⃣ What if the real variable isn’t AI capability — but human and institutional adaptation speed? 2⃣ What if the crisis isn’t intelligence abundance — but structural rigidity? 3⃣ What if the displacement spiral only persists if leaders default to optimization-only instead of optimize & regenerate in parallel? 4⃣ What happens if organizations redesign themselves for perpetual reinvention instead of margin defense? 5⃣ Are we modeling inevitability — or modeling a specific behavioral response to AI? Because here’s the part I think is under-explored: Most of our societal architecture still exists within friction. Intelligence still has cost. Coordination still has cost. Information still has cost. But those costs are being re-priced — unevenly and rapidly — and the systems built around yesterday’s cost structures may not survive tomorrow’s. Capitalism, as practiced at scale, evolved around those constraints. If certain forms of intelligence friction compress dramatically, then we are not tweaking systems. We are refactoring them. Jobs. Organizations — their size, structure, and incentive models. Product-market fit. Intermediation. Private credit. Mortgages. Tax bases. Political coalitions. The first-order disruption is employment. The second-order disruption is organizational structure and incentives. The third-order disruption is finance. The fourth-order disruption is society itself. And this is where I’ll admit something uncomfortable. My own thinking and work centers around what I call the Regenerative Loop — at the individual, team, and organizational level. The idea that AI collapses execution cost and forces us to shift from optimization and harvesting yesterday’s advantage to continuous recreation and innovation of tomorrow’s advantage. In that potential future, curiosity, creativity, and imagination become economic infrastructure — not soft traits, but the new sources of differentiation and advantage. But that model assumes humans can adapt. And I’m not sure we are culturally or psychologically wired for perpetual reinvention. More importantly, we are certainly not structurally designed for it. Our current economic systems, compensation models, incentive structures, and organizational designs reward stability, predictability, and incremental optimization — not continuous regeneration. Which raises a harder question than “is this a crisis?”: If the most productive asset in the economy begins to produce fewer jobs, can a system built on labor-derived income sustain itself without fundamentally changing its distribution logic? We may be entering the most productive period of capitalism in terms of output. And simultaneously approaching a moment that gives rise to the need for distribution mechanisms that look far less traditionally capitalist. That tension is not ideological. It is structural. And layered beneath it is an even deeper question: At scale, capitalism aligns closely with certain aspects of human nature — competition, status, accumulation, self-interest. As intelligence becomes abundant and certain forms of scarcity erode, will those instincts work for us… or against us? From where I sit — working with executive teams inside large corporations and engaging directly with policymakers who will shape the regulatory and fiscal response — the gap is not intelligence. The gap is experience. Many leaders are discussing AI strategically without having deeply felt it operationally. Until you’ve had what I call an AI “magic moment” — where the capability viscerally challenges your assumptions about value, skill, and role — it’s very easy to treat this as just another productivity tool. So, budgets get approved. Enablement programs get launched. Margin expansion gets celebrated. But very few leaders are modeling the recursive implications on their own roles, their organizations, and the societal systems that surround them. If leaders don’t personally experience the depth of this shift — if they don’t put their hands on the keyboard and feel both the power and the displacement risk — they will default to incremental optimization and remain blind to the need — and opportunity — to redesign their organizations on regenerative footing. And optimization-only at scale is what turns a feedback loop into a spiral. The future outlined in this piece is plausible. It is also potentially dystopian if we drift into it unconsciously. So, the real question isn’t whether the displacement spiral is possible. It is this: Can we redesign institutions — corporate, financial, and political — fast enough to convert reflexive displacement into regenerative adaptation? Because if we can’t, the spiral wins. And if we can, the abundance of intelligence becomes the raw material for a very different kind of society. That feels like the conversation we need to be having. P.S. There is an irony here. For the first time in history, we have tools capable of helping us model second- and third-order implications at scale. AI may destabilize existing systems — but it also gives us the capacity to simulate trade-offs, explore distribution models, stress-test policy options, and think more rigorously about unintended consequences. The question is not whether we can predict and control the future. It’s whether we are willing to use these systems to make more informed choices about the future we are implicitly designing. And that requires something even harder. It requires us to extend our time horizon. Are we — individually and collectively, in whatever positions of leadership and influence we occupy — optimizing for our own short-term advantage during the brief blink of time we’re here? Or are we willing to think in terms of legacy at scale — to help shape a new societal contract that future generations will inherit? Abundant intelligence forces us to confront not just what we can build, but what we are building toward. P.S. II After the Great Financial Crisis, the phrase was “Too Big to Fail.” I increasingly wonder whether we may be entering an era of “Too Big to Survive.” If certain forms of intelligence friction compress dramatically, large centralized systems may become more brittle, not less. Would abundant intelligence default toward healthier outcomes if our corporations — and even our societies — operated closer to tribal scale, where trust density and coordination are human-sized rather than abstract? I don’t know the answer. But if we are refactoring intelligence itself, it seems naïve to assume size and structure remain neutral variables.

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Chris Kimble
Chris Kimble@KimbleCharting·
Don't see 28-year breakouts very often!
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Citrini
Citrini@Citrini7·
JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
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beeple
beeple@beeple·
ETH DENVER 2026
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Demetri Kofinas
Demetri Kofinas@kofinas·
I've been making the same argument in private. Not only am I bullish on RL, but one can make the case that the economics of the zero-marginal cost economy for digital media also break down in a world where all parts of the production process go to zero.
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BURKOV
BURKOV@burkov·
It's AI
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Demetri Kofinas
Demetri Kofinas@kofinas·
This debate about whether Kevin Warsh is a hawk or not misses the point. Even if someone raised Paul Volcker from the grave, put a cigar in his mouth, and nominated him to be Fed Chair, it wouldn't change a thing. As @LynAldenContact is fond of saying, nothing stops this train.
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Leopold
Leopold@Backyard_vienna·
@jukan05 Really great! Congrats! By the way I also think of this scene in 'Billions' ever so often where the trader gets shouted at for suggesting to buy AAPL apparently only because its too obvious.
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
This is the first piece I’ve written with the team since joining Citrini. I worked incredibly hard on it, and I’m confident it’s more substantive than anything you’ll find from any other house. citriniresearch.com/p/semis-memo-m…
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Jared Dillian
Jared Dillian@dailydirtnap·
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