Dominic Besner

My thoughts on the latest @abacusdataca poll: There is clear evidence in our polling that the opinion environment in Canada is shifting. While the cost of living remains in focus for most people, Donald Trump has become the second more cited top issue and has come to define so much of what people are talking about. With Justin Trudeau’s exit only a few weeks away and the spectre of more tariffs possibility coming, Canadians are increasingly asking themselves which political choice is best able to deal with the impact and consequence of Trump’s threatening posture towards Canada. However, we do not see a competitive political environment. The Conservatives continue to have a large lead in vote intention and while Pierre Poilievre’s negatives have risen, far more people have a positive impression of him than any other leader. When we ask Canadians about their views towards Mark Carney, he is viewed more favourably than negatively with 34% saying they have a positive view and 17% with a negative one. However, he also remains largely undefined in people’s minds and so there is still a lot we don’t know about how people will react to him once they get to know him better. But it is clear that the mindset of much of the public has shifted. Older Canadians, especially Baby Boomers, are fully engaged in the drama being created by Donald Trump. Boomers, and those with higher levels of education seem to be shifting their political preferences more than other Canadians at this point. Whether it is because they are paying closer attention to the news, or whether because they feel more threatened by Trump, they are ripe for persuasion by the Liberals. Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this poll is the weakness of the NDP and Jagmeet Singh. We have consistently measured the NDP in a narrow band between 17% and 20% for the past three years. But only in the last two weeks have we seen their vote share drop to its lowest level in our tracking. And when we include Carney’s name into the mix, their vote drops even further to 12%. Overall, our read of the opinion landscape still favours the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre. They have managed to hold onto most of their past supporters while still converting a sizeable portion of Liberal and NDP voters. Unless their voter coalition splinters, it will be hard of their opponents to make significant gains beyond what we have measured thus far