Biggrinner

@alphaticaio Do you have data on what happens today ?

CPI came in hot yesterday. PPI came in hot this morning. Both Hot. From our inflation matrix (published last night): it's not about hot or cold. It's about whether CPI and PPI agree. They just agreed. When CPI and PPI send the same signal, 20-day forward returns: $SPY: +1.62%, 72% win rate (p = 0.003) $QQQ: +2.63%, 79% win rate (p = 0.005) $IWM: +1.67%, 60% win rate (p = 0.038) Both Hot specifically: $SPY: +1.44%, 69% win $QQQ: +2.67%, 81% win (p = 0.006) FinTwit sees two hot inflation prints and panics. Our data says the market can handle inflation in either direction. What it can't handle is conflicting signals. Both Hot and Both Cold produce nearly identical forward returns (p = 0.81). Agreement is the signal. Direction is noise. The 20-day buy signal has fired. The clock starts today. We will post the results. $SPY $QQQ $IWM #PPI #CPI #Inflation

@alphaticaio This is not my analysis. Claudes take. Every prior instance where this ratio reached current levels, a recession was either: Already underway, or Within 1-3 quarters of beginning. Gives me reason to pause

Copper/Gold ratio update #4: May 2, 2026 March 3 low still holding. Day 44. No new low. Current: 0.001291 (+18.2% from the bottom) The ratio hit 0.001311 yesterday, the highest reading since early February. Gold is doing the heavy lifting: $4,840 on April 8 → $4,561 on April 30, a -5.8% decline in three weeks. Copper has been range-bound between $5.87 and $6.13 over the same period. The ratio is rising because gold is falling, not because copper is surging. Higher-low sequence still intact: 0.001092 (Mar 3) → 0.001099 (Mar 18) → 0.001186 (Apr 2) → 0.001188 (Apr 8) → 0.001244 (Apr 21) → 0.001260 (Apr 28). $SPY is at all-time highs. The CG ratio confirmed 44 days ago. In prior episodes, average forward return after confirmation: +18.7% at 3 months, +24.9% at 6. 100% win rate across 12 episodes. What to watch: 1. Gold weakness is driving this move. If the oil shock reignites a flight to safety and gold reverses back above $4,800, the ratio compresses fast. That's the risk. 2. Copper holding $5.87 is the floor. A sustained break below with gold rising would break the higher-low sequence. 3. The ideal development: copper breaks above $6.15 while gold stays below $4,700. That shifts the ratio from gold-weakness-driven to copper-strength-driven, which historically produces more durable signals. Still watching 0.001092. A break below resets the clock. 44 days in, the signal is intact. $SPY $QQQ $GLD $SPX

@alphaticaio Claude’s take. This time might be different because •A 0.84 Leading/Coincident ratio •A gamma cliff losing 72.6% by May 15 •A breadth signal that’s only fired twice in 25 years •A carry trade unwind beginning •A binary NVDA event on May 20

🚨🚨🚨Next week FinTwit will be flooded with "Sell in May and go away" takes. Every year, same adage, same fear. We ran 9 statistical tests on it before the noise starts. 22 years. $SPY and $QQQ. Every May-October period since 2003. May-October was positive 77% of the time in $SPY and 81% in $QQQ. The adage implies summer is negative. It's positive 4 out of 5 years. Binomial test confirms: significantly different from a coin flip (p = 0.017). "The seasonal difference isn't real. In $SPY, the gap between May-Oct and Nov-Apr returns has a p-value of 0.49 which is statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip. In $QQQ, May-Oct actually returns MORE than Nov-Apr. Bootstrap confidence interval includes zero for both indices. There is no seasonal edge." The cost of following the adage: $10,000 invested in Buy & Hold grew to $69,649 in $SPY and $195,026 in $QQQ. The "Sell in May" strategy: $34,333 and $44,603. You lose $35,316 in $SPY, 50.7% of your terminal wealth. In $QQQ, you lose $150,423, 77.1%. The adage costs you more than it saves you. The real problem month is September (-0.60%), not May (+0.72%). July is the strongest summer month (+1.97%, p < 0.01). The adage is named after the wrong month. Summer is actually safer. Probability of a >10% drawdown in 60 days: 16% in summer vs 24% in winter for $SPY. The "dangerous" season has lower drawdown risk at every horizon we tested. The edge has decayed and reversed. From 2021-2026, May-Oct outperformed Nov-Apr by +4.4% in $SPY and +7.8% in $QQQ. The adage doesn't just fail, it's backwards now. We tested the event window. In the 10 days before May 1st, $SPY averages +0.74% with a 73% win rate. The market rallies into May. Nobody is actually selling. Sell in May and go away. To where? The market was positive 77% of the summers you missed. The adage cost you half your portfolio. The seasonal difference has a p-value of 0.49 which is statistically indistinguishable from noise. $SPY $QQQ $SPX

@michaeljburry I remember the album I had by Budgie who wrote Breadfan - love it

@MarciSilfrain Depends on time of day and momentum

Do you take your profit on a trail or go all the way????

@MarciSilfrain Think about how I could have traded better. What did I miss. Did I get sloppy.

What do you all do during the one hour off a day at 5pm EST???

@MarciSilfrain Love the symmetry. Congratulations BTW. Great trading

Thank you everyone for all the support. I promised to start sharing charts so here is QQQ... My NQ chart has too much going on to share right now. I need to figure out and work on a way to share these. What program do you like to use for making and sharing charts? On my @Wordsofrizdom interview that will be out soon, I told him I can't teach, but everyone keeps asking me to help, so I will start to share some macro views of mine. A pattern is a pattern until it breaks to me. As long as we stay in the blue channel I am bullish for now. I think both rectangles represent a consolidation period. I believe this consolidation period will bring QQQ to $694ish on an upside breakout. That's what I see for now. Happy Trading!

@SJosephBurns Waiting

Explain your entire trading strategy in one word. 👇

@elonmuskTN 56

@SirPickle_ OF

You spend way too much time marking charts. This tool does it in seconds—and does it better. 🟢Automated Multi-Timeframe analysis 🟢Intelligent market bias & entry areas 🟢Ultra-fast backtesting (and it’s only getting smarter) This isn’t just a ‘FVG’ indicator. It’s a trading edge—fully automated. Comment “OF” and I’ll DM you the link.

@musk_news13 👍

@VolatilityVIX Trend is your friend

So a couple days of consolidation, what does everyone think? 1) It's only the calm before the storm and we see another drop lower? 2) Or a base has formed and we recover from here? I feel.... Up?

@StoicTA STOIC

This simple trading strategy will make you profitable in 2025. Comment "STOIC" and I will DM you the full trading strategy for FREE. (must follow to receive DM) No more excuses, you have everything you need. It's time to lock it!

@elonmusk @grok

Try it!

@saijagan08 Assume $10 = 1% risk Assume 100 trades Option 1 payout $10 x 2 x 60 =$1,200.00 Option 2 $5 x 5 x 35 =$875.00 Option 1 is better

What will you choose? 1% Risk 1:2 Reward 60% Win rate Or 0.5-0.25% Risk 1:5 Reward 35% Win Rate Let me know below 👇

@DodgysDD 1

1 or 2

@JustinWerlein I am 69 and have had and am having a wonderful life (Just sold short NQ @ 21272 btw) Love your content If you are ever in Australia please pay me a visit as I have kangaroos in my back yard 😂

@Biggrinner1 It’s a magical pocket. Life just works likes this, but you can only see it if you’re being aware of the amazing things in the seemingly boring things.

I know I’m still young, but a piece of advice for everyone. Something I have seen in my life and my progression throughout the last couple years. Conviction is what beats discipline and motivation. Sometimes being so convicted in yourself and your identity somehow magically manifest its own creation through reality. Theres times in my life where it felt like I was doing 0 work, and I was just living life so convicted in where I was going, that the work did itself. The way I lived my life manifested itself to achieve the goal I made my identity. It’s like life was catching up to who I was, who I was convicted in, who I believed was special and destined for greatness, someone who already is great. Life isn’t just black and white. There’s these little pockets of astonishment of how life is designed, and how we perceive our life. Wild *Writing this on the toilet btw

@Romeotpt MMSM

What do you see?

@DaveTeachesFX I’m a 69 yr old trader in Australia and have just discovered your teachings. Thank you for sharing. It has made a huge difference to my trading 😄

#DTFX Traders, Retweet if you want me to create a video showing you how to use a single candle to enter a trade with Entry & Stoploss.