∞/21M

Quick take on the new $NBIS vs. $IREN debate. We now have a lot more data. In the last 3 months, $NBIS has: - confirmed twice its $7–9B ARR guidance is on track - confirmed ~60% of capex is already funded - confirmed dilution will be less than expected - received approval for a 1.2GW data center - raised guidance to 2.5–3.0GW of contracted power (completely disproving the “Nebius will never secure enough power” argument) - acquired Tavily - launched Token Factory - launched Aether - had market data point to multiple subsidiaries being worth several billion dollars and growing fast - noted pricing is increasing - noted contract durations are increasing - noted customers are increasingly paying in advance (sometimes 100%) - confirmed 100% of customers use their software - I have to stop here, but the full list would be incredibly long, I could literally add 20 more points just on product updates that will all increase the TAM massively and have great effects on stickiness and retention My takeaway: Nebius is raising capital more efficiently and getting better deal terms because it looks like the serious long-term winner in the “new hyperscaler / neocloud” category, and a real competitor to AWS over time. Other public players like $IREN (and others) face tighter financial constraints and dependencies, less integration across the stack, and less product depth than $NBIS. The gap is clearly getting way bigger and more visible over time. I tried to completely stop talking bad about stocks, especially stocks I do not hold in my own portfolio, but every now and then we have to talk about what's really happening.

BREAKING: The Federal Reserve's Automated Clearing House (ACH) remains down. The current outage affects batch payments like direct deposits, payroll and bill payment at banks, credit unions and businesses nation wide.