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LARZ
2.9K posts
LARZ
@BizCycles
“The very best thing you can do for the whole world is to make the most of yourself.” Student of the game
Pressure is a Privilege Katılım Mart 2014
798 Takip Edilen332 Takipçiler
@RealSimpleAriel "He is not good at predicting, but great at reacting". Um, yeah, thats the entire fkn point.
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What Mir doesn’t seem to understand is the idea of strong opinions, loosely held.
I make predictions every single day. My own stats say I’m wrong 63% of the time.
If trading was about predicting the future, I’d be broke.
The idea that great traders succeed because they’re better at forecasting is complete nonsense. Great traders succeed because they react fast when the market proves them wrong.
I cut losers immediately. I press winners. And the second I get an expectation breaker, I throw my previous opinion in the trash without a second thought.
The market doesn’t pay you for being right. It pays you for managing risk and adapting.
Anyone who thinks this business is about making perfect predictions has fundamentally misunderstood what trading actually is.
Mir@mirsblog
Until 4 days ago Ariel was gloom and doom. He is a good trader no doubt but if you listen to him for what market will do a 24 hrs from now you will lose. He is not good at predicting, but great at reacting. Only @1ChartMaster for life as he is not in the business for predicting like Ariel constantly does and is often wrong.
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I haven't pulled the data together to know this for sure, but anecdotally, I've experienced the same thing. @Ollie_AllCaps i believ has pulled the data and also noticed this phenomenon as well. People will deny it cuz the legend Qullamaggie preached it but my experience and the little data I've seen hasn't born it out.
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Opening Range High (5-minute ORB) entries have a very high failure rate if the stock hasn't even reached 100% RVOL by that point. That's one of the reasons I don't recommend trading right at the open.
The odds are stacked against you. You're often dealing with wider spreads, greater execution slippage on both entry and exit, and higher transaction costs, all while taking the risk against the odds and probability.
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That was so worth staying up to 4am for. Game of the tournament
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A Momentum Trader's Guide to Mastering Quality Setups is now available to download.
This book is a complete breakdown of the process I use to identify and trade high-quality momentum stocks. My hope is that it helps you build a process you can trust and execute with confidence.
A sincere thank you to @PradeepBonde @Scot1andT @LeifSoreide and @801010athlete for contributing to the Praise section, and for the support and influence you've had on my development as a trader over the years. It means a lot to have your names in these opening pages.
The book is 100% free, as my token of appreciation to the amazing trading community.
Voyagetradegroup.com
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The Magixx to chopper pipeline
Hyde@FartSmellaHyde
7 years on T this pride month btw The anniversary was June 9th
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@followdusT Aksually, I've been informed that Falcons won not because Vitality players objectively played below their standards, but because karrigan called a masterclass and therefore any skepticism about Falcons letting go of kyx are now justified.
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He’s right unfortunately.
They looked shaky at times throughout this event and their near perfect D2 failed them this event.
Outside ZywOo, the others were a step below their normal level.
Curious how they respond next season.
HLTV.org@HLTVorg
apEX: "I don't think we ever showed a good face here" hltv.org/news/44963/ape…
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@LobanjicaCS It took flameZ, apEX, and Mezii to shit the bed in order for Falcons to barely win. Falcons aint winning shit with Karrigan dropping a 0.67 rating.
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@Nicholai_Korea @Alex_Ortodoxie Why is calling in on a live stream a metric of competence on a topic? That's your own invented standard.
In any case, I'm more than happy to debate DeYoung some time in the future. I won't cower away, unlike you from my debate proposal 😎
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Again where all these guys coming in to talk to Fr. SDY on the numerous dozens and dozens of hours he has been available to chat with on @Alex_Ortodoxie stream? Walmart Thomist crickets, Other Paul Crickets, Ybarra crickets, and on and on.
These people all bark no bite.
The Other Paul@TheOtherPaul2
@ErickYbarra3 But he's like really profound and super smart and stuff...
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$PATH is 1 of those names that's starting to tell a story I pay very close attention to.
Not because of the fundamentals (although they're improving), but because of what the market is doing.
Think about it...
- $MU is making new highs.
- Leadership is still expanding.
...and now money is starting to rotate into names that have been sitting in the penalty box for months.
That's a subtle sign of a healthy Market!
A strong market doesn't just have leaders making higher highs... a strong market starts finding new potential leaders.
$PATH has spent 115+ days building a Stage 1 base, volume is pouring into the right side of the structure, earnings acted as a potential catalyst, and we're seeing the first real signs of character change off the lows.
It's kind of like watching someone who hasn't been to the gym in 3 years suddenly show up 5 days a week, start eating right, and lose 20 pounds.
You don't know for certain they're about to become a bodybuilder... but the behavior is changing. I'm sure @TLAMB91 can speak on this analogy.
Nobody knows if this thing works.
But the combination of AI automation, improving price action, expanding volume, and money rotating into beaten-down software names tells a story that fits exactly what I'm looking for.
Only time will tell...
My job is simply to pay attention!
Chart: $PATH.
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Thats the big unknown. If i had to guess id say only a small % follow all his rules to the letter which is kind of my point. A lot of greats have shared time tested rules for success but very few end up following them to the letter either because they lack the discipline or the emotional control. For me this phenomenon is what truly makes trading difficult and is why people like Jeff and Q have 10s of thousands of followers but very few who end up finding similar types of success. They give us the blue prints but the mental side of this game is what creates winners.
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@BizCycles I partly agree, but in your opinion, what percentage of @jfsrev 's followers follow all his rules to the letter?
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Jeff has made his rules available to everyone. Jeff has achieved tremendous results using those rules... Is it difficult to follow those same rules to achieve similar results?
Jeff Sun, CFTe@jfsrev
This market will make you appreciate high ADR% securities.
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This market will make you appreciate high ADR% securities.
Jeff Sun, CFTe@jfsrev
Understanding the Infeasibility of '1% Risk to Equity' and Benefits of High ADR% Securities Your question is excellent, and I’d like to clarify why aiming for a 1% risk-to-equity ratio is often unrealistic due to position sizing constraints. I’ll also compare lower ADR% products, like $XRT at 1.41% ADR, with higher ADR% products, like $RETL at 4.06% ADR (a 3x leverage of $XRT, sharing the same price structure on intraday timeframes). In the example below, I simulate an entry price and stop-loss price based on $XRT and $RETL high and low range and automate the calculation of position size % required for a “1% risk” approach relative to account equity (excluding existing unrealized gains/losses of other positions). Using a 1% risk model, you would need to allocate almost your entire account (without margin) to $XRT and about 30% of your account to $RETL with its higher ADR%. The 1% risk approach may work for traders constraining themselves to securities with ADRs above 5%, as structuring trades based on high/low intraday ranges often only requires 10-25% of equity, enabling a minimum of four concurrent positions on swings. However, with names like $TSLA, $MSFT, or $NVDA, even synthetic leveraged of those names like $TSLL, $MSTU, or $NVDU wouldn’t allow for comfortable positioning. This is no secret if you have the right metrics on your spreadsheet. @stamatoudism have also highlighted about inflexibility of even 0.5% risk in his first interview with @traderlion I suggest starting with a 0.15% risk per trade, increasing only when you begin to see the benefit of having a ADR% cut off in your screening and share structure of higher ADR% securities. Personally, I max out at around 0.33%, especially when most active names now are in the 2b-25b market cap range, with floats below 50 million shares and ADRs above 4.5%. This are the trademark of momentum names, and it make alot of sense why are able to move in such rapid fashion on those share structure. I just wish to add that High ADR% securities offer the benefit of greater intraday range expansion without substantial capital lock-up compared to lower ADR% names. I avoid trading products like $XRT or $TSLA directly, preferring leveraged ETFs when they provide sufficient liquidity for the same reason. It gives you alot of capital excess when a 5-star/A-rated setup in the latter stage of your position building.
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@scotthortonshow @allenanalysis Scott, other than this one, what are some of the best books you would recommend to someone wanting to get more familiar with how Israel operates and intervenes in foreign governments like the US?
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@Peoples_Pundit At this point, how much do you rekon this impacts the race? From what I've seen, Gallerin leads with boomers who consume fox news while Massie leads with younger folks who consume news from a variety of online sources.
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Gallrein ending the campaign on Fox News and with a rally featuring Pete Hegseth, is unsurprising.
Strategy is to turn out more reliable Fox BoomerCons, the only group with which the Iran War is popular.
Ed leads with those who watch cable news. Massie leads with all others.
Ed Gallrein@EdGallrein
Continuing to make the case to fire turncoat Thomas Massie — the biggest roadblock to President Trump’s agenda. Thank you to @DanaPerino and @BillHemmer for having me on to talk about what’s at stake for Kentucky and the America First movement!
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Crazy how similar my actions were to yours today regarding $QCOM. It also wasnt on my focus list today, but I saw it in a different list and noticed how it pulled back and held the PEG day lows. Difference between me and you is you pulled the trigger and I didn't lol. Pro vs Joe 😂.
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The power of keeping the Power Earnings Gap watchlist (and knowing how to use it):
The PEG Watchlist - collecting the best of the best earnings reactions and keeping a close eye on these names to wiggle your way into their uptrends, however possible.
Qualcomm here, back from the dead, had a massive change of composure on their report. Numbers not even that tremendous, more about the change of composure in the stock's behavior and the outward action we're seeing in the sector.
Had no intention of trading $QCOM pre market. Once market opens I scroll the watchlist looking for opportunity. Since I am so in tune with the names I'm focused on, and have so much confidence in my entry tactics, I do not have to be that trader that says "if its not on my focus list, I can't trade it." I'm ready to sling this shit when it comes into my buy zones.
This only comes from doing insane amounts of mental work in deeming what is and is not considered "overtrading." More work goes in after hours than during market hours. Only way to survive out here.
Saw $QCOM here testing its earnings day gap low while trying to reclaim the 5ema on its 3rd day down. Bought $169.25 through the 15 minute high with a <$5 stop to lows against support area -- and now seemingly have great stock on my hands.
Have been doing this same exact thing quarter in and quarter out for over 10 years. The names change, the executions do not.💪
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